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Science 23 February 2001:
Vol. 291. no. 5508, pp. 1491 - 1492
DOI: 10.1126/science.291.5508.1491
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Policy Forum

DEMOGRAPHY:
Prospects for Human Longevity

S. Jay Olshansky,* Bruce A. Carnes, Aline Désesquelles

From 1985 to 1995, death rates for the population aged 0 to 99 declined at an average annual rate of 1.5% in France, 1.2% in Japan, and 0.4% in the United States. These trends in mortality, if they continue, would yield a life expectancy at birth from 85 to 90 years in the 21st century. Given the presence of entropy in the life table, a life expectancy at birth of 100 years, if it ever occurs, is unlikely to arise until well past the time when everyone alive today has already died. Overly optimistic forecasts of life expectancy have already influenced important areas of public policy.

S. J. Olshansky is in the School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago and Center on Aging, The University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USA. B. A. Carnes is at the National Opinion Research Center, Center on Aging, The University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USA. A. Désesquelles is at the Institut National D'Études Démographiques (INED), 75980 Paris cedex 20, France.

*To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: sjayo{at}uic.edu

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E-Letters:

Read all E-Letters

How Long Can We Live?
John R. Wilmoth
Science Online, 31 May 2001 [Full text]
Author Response to John Wilmoth
S. Jay Olshansky, Bruce A. Carnes, Aline Désesquelles
Science Online, 31 May 2001 [Full text]

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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)