Analysis and forecast of marine economy development in China

1.1 Analysis on the scale of China's marine economy

China Marine Economic Statistics Bulletin 2019 explains the relative concepts as follows: Gross Ocean Product includes added value from the marine industry and added value from marine-related industries. The marine industry refers to the production and service activities involved in the development, utilization and protection of the ocean. It is composed of the major marine industries and marine scientific research education management services. Among them, ocean-related industries denote upstream and downstream industries that take various inputs and outputs as links and form technical and economic links with major marine industries.

2.1 Changes to three marine industrial structures

From the overall development of marine industry, China's gross marine product showed an overall upward trend from 2001 to 2019. The proportion of the three major marine industries has changed from 6.8:43.6:49.6 in 2001 to 4.2:35.8:60 in 2019 from the perspective of the relative scale of marine industry. The proportion of the primary and secondary industries in the Gross Ocean Product has decreased significantly in the past 2 decades, while the proportion of the marine tertiary industry in China's marine industry increased significantly. In recent years, affected by the environment at home and abroad, the rates of growth of the three major marine industries have declined significantly. Among them, the rate of growth for tertiary industries is significantly greater than that of the primary and secondary industries (Figure 10). At present, China's marine economic system continues to consolidate the development pattern of “3-2-1”, and the marine industry is expected to continue to develop.

Since the start of the 21st century, the value added of China's total marine industry (including the three major industries) has grown steadily from 2001 to 2019; however, because of influences of various domestic and foreign emergencies, the value added of China's various marine industries has grown slowly in some years or relative to the previous year. Affected by SARS in 2003, China's marine economic development momentum was insufficient, and the marine tertiary industry was the most affected, its added value growth rate was only 2.54% (Figure 10). Due to the influences of the financial crisis in 2009, China's marine economic development slowed. The coastal tourism industry suffered a huge impact, and the entire marine tertiary industry rate of growth was only 7.62% (Figure 10). Facing the decline of oil and gas production and the grim situation at home and abroad in 2016, the added value of China's marine secondary industry has declined for the first time since the start of the 21st century (Figure 11). From 2017 to 2019, with the decrease in marine fishing production and the adjustment of fishery production structure, China's marine primary industry has achieved a smooth transition (Figure 11).

The novel coronavirus pandemic started in 2019 would inevitably lead to the decrease in the added value of China's marine industry, and associated marine tertiary industries, which are extremely sensitive to emergencies, were the most affected. During the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia, many coastal tourist attractions in China were closed and the number of tourists decreased sharply, which caused great losses to the coastal tourism sector in China. After the epidemic situation began to ease, government gradually deregulated. Although China's tourism industry has recovered during this period, the recouping of the losses caused by the coronavirus pandemic requires more time. In the face of the pandemic, some countries or regions have adopted restrictive regional management policies, and the control of sea routes and ports is more stringent, which will inevitably affect the progress of interregional trade, and the marine transportation industry has also been affected to some extent. In addition, marine shipbuilding industry, marine oil and gas industry, marine mining, marine fisheries and other industries have been affected to various extents. According to the effects of local epidemic control and the government's support for rework and reproduction, China's marine industry departments are expected to recover around 2021, and the added value of each industry will increase steadily (based on 2020 values). In 2022, various domestic marine industries will almost return to normal, and the added value will be expected to exceed levels enjoyed before the outbreak.

2.2 Traditional marine industry and emerging marine industries

From 2001 to 2019, an overall fluctuating downward trend has been shown in the proportion of traditional marine industries in Gross Ocean Product, which was from 37.45% in 2001 to 34.66% in 2019 (Figure 12), and its proportion was more based on the over-reliance on natural resources and the quantitative advantage of traditional industries; however, the problems of resources, environment, technology and production faced by China's traditional marine industry remain outstanding in recent years. At present, the existing conditions cannot fully meet the requirements of the traditional marine industry in terms of required innovation in practice. How to realize the re-upgrading of the traditional marine industries is a crucial problem to be addressed for the good of the further development of China's marine economy.

The proportion of China's emerging marine industry in Gross Ocean Product shows a tendency to grow, rising from 3.07% in 2001 to 5.29% in 2019 (Figure 12), but the added value ratio in this industry remains low, at far below the added value ratio in the traditional industry. This was affected by many factors: firstly, China's emerging marine industry started late, the foundation was weaker than that in other developed countries. There was still a certain lag in production techniques. Second, the relevant national policies were not clearly defined: for example, in the marine biomedical industry, the vague focus of development and the lack of funds led to slow development of the overall industry. Finally, the coastal distribution of early heavy chemical industry and extensive marine development mode in some areas have resulted in enormous pressure on resources and environment and affected the sustainable development of strategic emerging industries, but it is undeniable that China's emerging marine industry has huge potential and ample scope for development. In the future, the development of China's marine economy should focus on science and technology, improve resources carrying capacity and avoid excessive marine industry stagnation in old ways of working.

2.3 Marine advantage for traditional industries

Marine advantages for traditional industry are seen in traditional marine industries that exploit their comparative advantages and transform them to their own core competitiveness. The characteristics thereof are rich marine resource endowment, large-scale economic effects, higher industrial growth rates and industrial correlation. Considering factors such as China's marine resource endowment, industrial contribution and level of industrial development, China's marine traditional industries cover the early development of marine fisheries, marine transport and tourism in coastal areas which has accounted for an increasing proportion of major marine industries in recent years, according to the current development status of various traditional sectors.

Owing to China's superior natural geographical environment, a series of tourist attractions and tourist sites have been formed in coastal areas. The added value of tourism in coastal areas increased from 107.2 billion yuan in 2001 to 1808.6 billion yuan in 2019. Up to 2019, it accounted for 50.63% of China's major marine industries (Figure 13) and has become an important part of China's major marine industries. The COVID-19 pandemic had a huge impact on the tourism industry in China: many coastal scenic areas were closed down, the number of tourists plummeted and the added value of our country's coastal areas tourism industry declined in 2020. However, based on the growth trend in tourism in coastal areas in recent years and its proportion in China's major marine industries, it can be predicted that tourism development in coastal areas in the future will recover to, or even exceed, levels enjoyed before the pandemic. In addition, in the process of expanding the scale and increasing the proportion of the industry, there are still some problems to be solved, such as the worsening of pollution, the overloading of operations of various facilities and so on, in coastal areas.

Convenient conditions for the development of China's marine transport industry are provided by the tortuous and long coastline and the concentrated ports along the coast. China's marine transport industry has developed rapidly: the added value of the industry has shown an overall upward trend, from 131.64 billion yuan in 2001 to 642.7 billion yuan in 2019. Except for the effects of the global financial crisis in 2009, China's marine transportation industry economy has shown steady growth in other years although there remain some problems with its development. The proportion of this industry in the main marine industry decreased from 34.13% in 2001 to 17.99% in 2019 (Figure 14). This finding showed that the competitiveness of China's marine transportation industry in the major marine industries was declining, which might be ascribed to the inadequacy of government support and the frequency of natural disasters and man-made accidents.

2.4 Marine strategic emerging industries

Marine strategic emerging industries involve production and service activities that fully and reasonably exploit marine resources implemented by the state. The high and new technology is taken as the guidance and industrialization of marine technological achievements as the ultimate goal. Marine strategic emerging industries demonstrate the characteristics of a technological orientation, low consumption of resources, long-term development, linkage of industrial sectors and great prospect. These industries are seen as an indispensable core industry for China to develop blue economy and participate in the international marine economic market. Marine strategic emerging industries include the marine biology industry, marine energy industry, marine manufacturing and engineering industry, marine water utilization industry, marine transportation industry, marine tourism industry and deep-sea energy industry. They involve medicine, aquaculture, transportation, manufacturing, tourism, energy and other fields and are of great strategic and practical significance to the development of marine economy, and its characteristics determine its high-tech content, low energy consumption and strong development potential advantages.

As the core area of competition among countries in the world today, the marine biomedical industry is an important component of China's emerging marine industry. The level of development of a marine biomedicine industry has become an important index to measure the development of national marine-related industries. The added value of China's marine biomedical industry increased from 570 million yuan in 2001 to 44.3 billion yuan in 2019. The proportion of major marine industries was increasing steadily, and the industry should develop well in the future (Figure 15). Although the overall level of China's marine biomedical industry has improved since 2001, the proportion of marine biopharmaceutical industry in China's major marine industries remained low due to the limitations of a low industrial development basis, high capital investment requirement and long recovery time: up to 2019, its highest proportion was only 1.24%.

Facing the difficulties of low per capita resource possession, low domestic water and insufficient drinking water supplies in offshore areas, how to realize the comprehensive utilization of seawater becomes the key to solve these problems. Since the beginning of the 21st century, China's seawater utilization industry has been developing well, the added value thereof increased from 110 million yuan in 2001 to 1.8 billion yuan in 2019, and its proportion in the added value of major marine industries has also shown an overall upward trend (Figure 16). However, the proportion of seawater utilization in the main marine industries remained low, so government should strengthen the support of corresponding encouraging policies to promote the steady development of seawater utilization in China.

2.5 Level of industrialization of the marine industry

The Hoffman coefficient is often adopted to measure the degree of industrialization of a country or region's economic development. It is the ratio of the net output value of the consumption data industry sector to the net output value of the capital data industry sector. In this report, the marine light industry sector and heavy industry sector are used to replace consumption-related data pertaining to the industry sector and capital data industry sector respectively to calculate the Hoffman coefficient of China's marine industry. The marine light industry sectors are defined as the marine fisheries sector and marine salt sector in terms of sectoral functions and data availability. The marine heavy industry sectors are represented by the marine ship industry sector, the marine chemical industry sector and the marine biomedical industry sector.

From 2002 to 2019, the Hoffman coefficient of China's marine industry showed an overall decreasing trend, indicating that the proportion of light industry in China's marine economic sector was gradually decreasing, and the trend of heavy industrialization of marine industry was obvious. This is line with China's transition from “Labor-intensive, resource-extensive” to “Capital-intensive, technology-oriented”. From 2002 to 2003, the Hoffman coefficient of China's marine industry was between 4 and 6, indicating that the development of China's marine industry was in the first stage of the industrialization process, the degree of development of the consumption data industry represented by the marine light industry sector was much higher than that of the capital data industry represented by the marine heavy industry sector. From 2004 to 2010, the Hoffman coefficient of China's marine industry was between 1.5 and 3.5, and it showed a continuous downward trend. The deepening of heavy industry indicated that China's marine industry has entered the second stage of the industrialization process, but the scale of development of China's marine light industry was still far larger than that of marine heavy industry, the Hoffman coefficient fluctuated frequently within the range of 1–2. During this period, the speed of development of China's marine heavy industry was relatively slow, and the unbalanced development of China's marine heavy industry was still problematic (Figure 17).

3.1 Analysis of the international and domestic economic environment

China's economic environment has become more complex from 2019 to 2020. Internationally, the global economic development situation has reversed, the pace of economic recovery in major economies has slowed, economic growth has declined significantly, and trade protectionism has intensified. Domestically, the downward pressure on China's economy continues to increase and faces multiple challenges in the economic and financial fields, including the Sino-US trade war, weak real economic demand and inflation. In the first quarter of 2020, the sudden outbreak of the new coronavirus pandemic spread globally, which exerts a significant influence on global economic operations. How to make use of marine development policy, optimize the level of marine development and utilization and implement the work of “Six Stability” and “Six Security” is the key to stabilizing the basis of the marine economy and create a new environment for development.

3.2 Marine economic policy and the legal environment

3.3 Analysis of sea resources and technological environment

4.1 The necessity of marine economic development model optimization

Marine economic development in China has made significant progress, but the long-standing development model of extensive predatory development and pollution-first treatment has led to marine environmental pollution, waste of marine resources and marine ecological degradation prominent problems. With the development of the marine industry, a large amount of waste water from the marine aquaculture industry and terrestrial waste is discharged, causing an increasingly serious problem of eutrophication of water bodies. In 2019, a total of 38 red tides were found in China's seas with a cumulative area of 1991 square kilometers. The marine fishing supervision system is imperfect and preventative measures are not in place; overfishing has led to the continuous decline of fishery resources; seafood processing procedures are basic, efficiency of resource utilization is low; marine renewable energy development, comprehensive utilization of seawater, marine biomedicine and key core technologies of other industries are insufficiently innovative and stable. The production capacity is relatively low, and the construction of national and industry standards is lagging; the development of marine mineral resources is inefficient, and the benefits accrued therefrom are not high. Large oil tankers and oil platforms continue to increase, and the risks of collisions, oil spills and other water traffic accidents increase. To expand the blue economic space and realize the green and sustainable development of the marine economy, the development model of the marine economy must be optimized and the high-quality development of the marine economy promoted.

4.2 Marine economic regulation and management capabilities need to be improved

With the gradual increase of maritime awareness in coastal provinces and cities, China's marine economic construction has continuously made new progress. However, there are some shortcomings in the development process. First, the development of traditional industries is hindered. China's traditional marine industry is facing outstanding problems such as damage to the ecological environment, difficulty in obtaining relevant talents, extensive development and less advanced levels of exploitation of key technologies. The existing conditions cannot be allowed to prevail and continue. The requirements of traditional marine industry innovation and practice have caused the proportion of traditional marine industry in total marine production to fluctuate and decline from 2001 to 2019; second, the development of traditional and emerging industries is not equal. In 2019, traditional marine industry accounted for all marine production. The proportion of the value added by the emerging marine industry is only 5.29%, which is far lower than the proportion accounted for by traditional industries; the third is the slow development of China's marine heavy industry, and the unbalanced development of the light and heavy industries is severe; the fourth is the regional marine industry lacks core competitiveness. In addition, due to the effects of the new coronavirus pandemic, contradictions among countries have become more prominent, China's economic environment has become more complex, trade protectionism has intensified, the Sino-US trade war has escalated, and the development of the marine economy is facing multiple challenges. China's marine economic development has serious problems such as ecological imbalance, uncoordinated, unsustainable development and insufficient risk resistance and innovation, further enhancing the marine economy's industrial structure regulation, risk control, coordination of maritime entities' contradictions and innovation-driven leadership capabilities. It is the only way to innovate and develop new industries in the marine economy, create a new engine for growth and build a new engine for sustainable development.

4.3 The urgency of improvement of marine economic data statistics

In recent years, China's marine economic statistics has continuously expanded its scope, supplemented content and improved efficiency through institutional statistics, survey statistics, direct corporate reporting and big-data analysis. However, there are still many problems in actual statistical work, such as insufficient classification of economic statistics. Detailed, incomplete statistical indicators, slower update of marine economic statistics, poor timeliness and delays in data quality control. In addition, the national data and the marine economic statistical indicators and statistical methods of various provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions are not uniform, resulting in poor data comparability. Second, the global statistical coverage of the marine industry is relatively low, especially those pertaining to countries along the “Maritime Silk Road” in the 21st century that need to be supplemented and improved. The exploration, monitoring, evaluation and integration of marine economic statistical data will play a vital role in future marine decision-making. The marine economic data statistical system should be continuously improved to improve its completeness, timeliness, comparability and accuracy.

4.4 The necessity of improvement in marine economic and financial support

Finance is an important support for the development of the marine economy. The rapid development of the marine economy in the new era, changes in marine economic development models, changes in industrial structure, and improvements in efficiency have continuously increased the demand for capital investment, posing new challenges to the development of financial support mechanisms. First, due to the large amount of capital demand, long cycle and high risk of sea-related enterprises, relevant financial institutions raise concerns when approving credit funds. In addition, the number of sea-related enterprises that choose to list on the main board market and issue corporate bonds for direct financing is small, resulting in insufficient funds for sea-related enterprises and insufficient financial support for industrial development; second, the evaluation of related marine collaterals such as marine intellectual property rights lacks basis, and most marine scientific research enterprises have high labor costs and scientific research costs, and there are problems around low efficiency in the transformation of scientific and technological achievements and the inability to conduct reasonable assessments has increased the difficulty of financing; third, the capital market system is imperfect, marine companies have slower growth, higher risks, and some financial indicators make it difficult to meet current listing standards, thus deterring marine companies from entering the securities market. Fourth, the protection provided by marine insurance cannot meet the needs of sea-related laborers, and the coverage is not sufficiently extensive: most policies are limited to the marine transportation industry and fishery, and the types of insurance product available lack diversity. The development of the marine economy is inseparable from financial support. Accelerating the construction of a maritime power requires strong financial support. To develop the oceans one must first enhance the function of financial services.

4.5 The necessity of enhancement of response to COVID-19

The coronavirus pandemic that began in 2019 has had a huge impact on the global economy. Affected by the pandemic, international trade and investment have shrunk; the bulk commodity market is turbulent, and the development of the marine economy has suffered. The coastal tourism industry bears the brunt due to its high sensitivity; because of the ongoing pandemic, government has adopted strict controls over coastal tourism. More than 90% of coastal areas have been closed, and the number of tourists has plummeted. Many tourism companies have suffered serious losses and cash flow problems. Tensions have resulted in a tourism crisis; the marine transportation industry has also suffered. The lockdown, work stoppages and isolation policies of various countries have greatly reduced marine transportation orders, the number of liners has increased the number of blank sailings, and the cost of marine transportation has increased. Stricter inspection and quarantine have greatly reduced the efficiency of global shipping; after the outbreak, companies across the country ushered in extended holidays, delayed resumption of work, restricted expressways and suspension of public transportation, resulting in a sharp decline in domestic refined oil market consumption. The output value of China's marine oil and gas industry has declined; China's aquaculture industry has not been spared; the consumption of seafood has dropped sharply; the tonnage of imported and exported seafood has plummeted, and the aquaculture industry has suffered heavy losses. The pandemic has affected various industries in China's marine economy. It is necessary to strengthen responses to the epidemic, properly handle the relationship between disease prevention and development and adapt to the new normal to maintain the stable and healthy operation of the marine economy.

6.1 Making innovations in the development model of the marine economy and accelerating the transformation and upgrading of the marine industrial structure

To solve the increasingly prominent marine ecological environment problems in China, it is necessary to change the backward model of development, adapt to the current environment of scientific and technological innovation and sustainable development, optimize the industrial structure and form a green development model that conforms to the characteristics of China's marine economic development. Promote a shift from a single goal of rigid growth to a high-quality sustainable development paradigm, shifting the focus of marine economic development from labor-intensive to knowledge-intensive industries. Improve the scientific development and utilization of marine resources and change the extensive resource development route. Replacing exhaustible non-renewable marine energy with new sources of marine energy can change the path of development. China should try to coordinate its marine industrial layout, optimize industrial structure, cultivate green industry, solve the imbalance of marine industrial structure and the unreasonable layout thereof and continue to consolidate the industrial structure of “3-2-1”. To promote the development of marine industry to the emerging marine industry tilt, increase government support, strengthen marine-related personnel training and promote the integration of industry, university, research and investment-system construction, China should develop mariculture breeding, expand the scale of deep-water cage culture, improve the scientific and technological content of the marine primary industry, promote the high-end traditional industry and realize the development of science and technology. Meanwhile, it is suggested to promote the marine industry cluster, avoid the marine industry's excesses of the past, encourage the region to rely on their own marine characteristics to build coastal industrial parks, form a complete industrial chain, promote primary, secondary and tertiary marine industries and realize the synergistic docking of land and sea industries.

6.2 Innovation in the management system of the marine economy and improvement of the ability to regulate and manage the marine economy

The marine economic management system is an important guarantee for the development of marine economy. Over times, the marine management system should also be reformed and innovated. Only a management system adapted to the current marine economic development can promote the sustainable development of marine economy. It is necessary to improve the legal system governing conduct in the marine economy and provide a good legal environment for the development thereof; at present, the legal context of the marine economy in China is constantly improving. However, there is a lack of unity between regional departments and a failure to form a perfect mechanism. It is necessary to strengthen marine legislation to adapt to the development of modern marine economy. Combined with the actual situation of the region, marine management standards should be established to combine the decentralization of marine management functions with centralized, hierarchical management. Strengthening the environmental protection of marine resources and developing the concept of green marine management should improve the relevant systems of marine resource development and management and sanctions punishing marine polluters, use the Internet and big-data to strengthen China's marine management and monitoring capabilities, strengthen law enforcement and explore the establishment of incentive mechanisms for marine pollution control and resource recovery. To establish and improve the coordination mechanism of marine economic management and solve the problem of incoordination in the process of marine economic development, China should improve the authority of marine administrative authorities, clearly divide the functions and powers of relevant marine departments, establish corresponding supervision and management institutions, construct scientific and reasonable decision-making system, realize information sharing and improve the regulation and management of the marine economy.

6.3 Improvement of the statistical data pertaining to the marine economy and enhancement of the supporting role of marine big-data in decision-making

Marine economic statistics is the basis of China's marine economic assessment and monitoring, academic research and international development comparison. It has important reference value in the construction of marine facilities, policy formulation and implementation. Government departments and relevant marine institutions should pay more attention to the construction of marine economic data statistical systems, pay attention to the construction of marine monitoring infrastructure, introduce high-tech equipment, improve the accuracy of the data obtained, promote the construction of a marine big-data platform, strengthen the integration of marine data and build a “smart marine data brain”. We should strengthen the cooperation between government agencies and marine research departments, industry associations and other relevant marine institutions, jointly build a scientific marine economic operation evaluation system, expand the scope of marine data, refine marine data collection and collation and gradually establish a sound marine economic statistics system to form a “digital ocean” awareness. To improve the international recognition of China's marine data, the statistical caliber and variable names used in relation to the marine economy between countries are different. We should take the needs of national marine economic development as the starting point and take the accuracy, comprehensiveness and integrity of data as the guidance to improve the quality of marine economic statistics, form a perfect and efficient marine economic data statistics system and promote the construction of marine information. We should promote cooperation with the International Maritime Organization, conduct research projects on international comparability of marine economy, regularly publish global marine economic statistics products, improve the international influence of marine data and utilize effective and comparable data to improve the correctness of decision-making.

6.4 Improve financial support and enhance the efficiency of marine scientific and transformational technological achievement

The funds for the development of marine industry have been relatively single-source, and the amount of funds cannot meet the needs of marine economic development, and no complete financing network has been formed, especially for marine science and technology. We should give full play to the leading role of the government, promote the diversified development of financing channels, provide support for qualified financial institutions and related marine enterprises to establish financial leasing companies and standardize the promotion of the government and social capital cooperation (PPP) model for the marine sector. Banks and other financial institutions should strengthen marine economic and financial services, establish special marine economic and financial services division, support qualified enterprises to list on the main board market, issue corporate bonds, increase credit support for emerging marine industries and establish public service platform for investment and financing of marine industry through information sharing. We should increase investment in marine science and technology through government support to establish a special policy guarantee company, for small and medium-sized enterprises in the field of marine science and technology and research institutions to provide specialized financing guarantee business and guide more funds into the field of marine science and technology. Through capital investment, the traditional marine industry is promoted to a high-end direction, and the transformation of scientific research achievements into actual productivity is promoted. The international visibility of enterprises is improved, and foreign investment is attracted to improve the efficiency of the transformation of marine scientific and technological achievements.

6.5 Control of the novel coronavirus pandemic and acceleration of the safe and orderly development of marine economy

The novel coronavirus pandemic is having serious effects on the world: stricter prevention, stricter control and a fight against the pandemic are necessary conditions for promoting economic development, the basis for doing a good job of “Six Stability” and implementing “Six Security” and the primary task of the current development of marine economy. We should actively establish anti-epidemic maritime “safety lines” and cut off the virus input chain. We should increase the number of anti-epidemic personnel according to the situation in different regions, implement classified control of all types of docks and ships, mark regional risk levels, minimize unnecessary contact between shippers and shore personnel, supervise overseas entry personnel to undertake pre-entry declaration, entry inspection and quarantine observation after entry, ensure the registration and inspection of personnel on-board and off-board and undertake effective disinfection. In addition to the prevention and control of personnel, we should also pay attention to the safety of marine imported products, especially aquatic products. It is necessary to supervise and record the source and treatment of imported products, strengthen the detection of related products and prevent products contaminated by new coronavirus from entering the market. In view of the new coronavirus pandemic, marine-related departments should introduce certain preferential policies, appropriately improving the proportion of special fund subsidies for the marine economy and accelerate the comprehensive recovery of marine production. We must actively pay attention to the development of the marine economy, monthly summary scheduling, while solving existing problems. According to the experiences and learning arising from the pandemic, we should increase the coverage of fishery and other risk species, reduce the production and operational risk caused by such pandemics and promote the safe and orderly development of China's marine economy.