To read this content please select one of the options below:

Foreign Currency Borrowing in Hungary: The Pricing Behavior of Banks

Risk Management in Emerging Markets

ISBN: 978-1-78635-452-5, eISBN: 978-1-78635-451-8

Publication date: 29 December 2016

Abstract

Over the last decade, foreign currency indebtedness in Hungary has become a systemic financial problem, and its crippling impact on the real economy has been aggravated by its significant constraints on economic policy. In international comparative terms, however, there are certain specific features relating to Hungary which make this issue particularly problematic, and during the financial crisis both exchange rates and interest rates were important factors in increasing the burden on individual households. We present here a case study whereby our research focuses on the causes and determining factors of the pricing of Swiss franc-denominated mortgage loans. Our empirical exercise examines four potential price shocks which might have affected the pricing decisions of credit institutions: foreign currency interest rates, the country risk premiums (measured by Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread), the deteriorating quality of the loan portfolio and the taxes levied on banks. The questions which arise concern the relationship of these costs to the changes in interest rates and the extent to which these cost shocks were passed on by banks to their clients. Empirical evidence based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) shows a significant long-run relationship between cost factors and CHF denominated mortgage loans interest rates — with a reasonable sign and magnitude of parameters, but also with moderate forecasting power. Finding a tractable solution to the foreign currency debt trap is only possible if a fair distribution of burdens is achieved, and this should be supported by empirical facts. At the end of the day, all three affected parties (debtors, banks, and the Hungarian State) had made their contribution, but how fair and reasonable the distribution was remains an open issue for further research.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

Acknowledgments

We are grateful for the comments and suggestions made by András Balatoni, Elisabeth Beckmann, Péter Benczúr, Péter Cziráki, Zsolt Darvas, Zoltán Gál, Júlia Király, Tamás Mellár, Gábor Rappai, and Zoltán Vásáry, as also for those offered by conference and seminar participants at the Department of Economics and Regional Studies of the University of Pécs, at the 12th Conference of the Hungarian Economic Modelling Association, the 5th Conference of the Hungarian Economic Science Association, at the 12th INFINITI Conference on International Finance, at the 2014 World Finance Conference in Venice, and the RAStaNEWS scientific workshop “Eurozone in the Doldrums.” Some of our data were obtained from the MNB database and we are grateful to Dániel Homolya, Réka Pusztai, and Róbert Szegedi for their assistance. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union, Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007–2013 Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities under Grant Agreement No. 320278 – RASTANEWS.

Citation

Schepp, Z. and Mátrai-Pitz, M. (2016), "Foreign Currency Borrowing in Hungary: The Pricing Behavior of Banks", Boubaker, S., Buchanan, B. and Nguyen, D.K. (Ed.) Risk Management in Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 469-503. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-78635-452-520161027

Publisher

:

Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2016 Emerald Group Publishing Limited