The potential for mismodeling of ${\nu }_{\mu }/{\nu }_e$, ${\overline{\nu }}_{\mu }/{\overline{\nu }}_e$, and ${\nu }_e/{\overline{\nu }}_e$ cross-section ratios due to nuclear effects is quantified by considering model spread within the full kinematic phase space for charged-current quasielastic interactions. Its impact is then propagated to simulated experimental configurations based on the Hyper-K and $\mathrm{ESS}\nu \mathrm{SB}$ experiments. Although significant discrepancies between theoretical models is confirmed, it is found that these largely lie in regions of phase space that contribute only a very small portion of the flux-integrated cross sections. Overall, a systematic uncertainty on the oscillated flux-averaged ${\nu }_e/{\overline{\nu }}_e$ cross-section ratio is found to be $\sim 2$ and $\sim 4\%$ for Hyper-K and $\mathrm{ESS}\nu \mathrm{SB}$, respectively.

• Received 5 April 2023
• Accepted 23 June 2023

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevD.108.L031301

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Published by the American Physical Society