Explaining the high number of infected people by dengue in Rio de Janeiro in 2008 using a susceptible-infective-recovered model

Tiago Botari, S. G. Alves, and Edson D. Leonel

Phys. Rev. E 83, 037101 – Published 18 March 2011

Abstract

An epidemiological model for dengue propagation using cellular automata is constructed. Dependence on temperature and rainfall index are taken into account. Numerical results fit pretty well with the registered cases of dengue for the city of Rio de Janeiro for the period from 2006 to 2008. In particular, our approach explains very well an abnormally high number of cases registered in 2008. A phase transition from endemic to epidemic regimes is discussed.

Received 13 October 2010

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.83.037101

Authors & Affiliations

Tiago Botari¹, S. G. Alves², and Edson D. Leonel³

¹Departamento de Física, UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista, Av. 24A, 1515, 13506-900, Rio Claro, SP, Brazil
²Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Viçosa 36570-000, Viçosa, MG, Brazil
³Departamento de Estatística, Matemática Aplicada e Computação, UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista, Av. 24A, 1515, 13506-900, Rio Claro, SP, Brazil

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Issue

Vol. 83, Iss. 3 — March 2011

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Physical Review E

covering statistical, nonlinear, biological, and soft matter physics