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The Plurality of Bayesian Measures of Confirmation and the Problem of Measure Sensitivity

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2022

Branden Fitelson
Branden Fitelson*
Affiliation:
University of Wisconsin-Madison
*
†Department of Philosophy, University of Wisconsin, 600 North Park Street, Madison, WI 53706.
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Abstract

Contemporary Bayesian confirmation theorists measure degree of (incremental) confirmation using a variety of non-equivalent relevance measures. As a result, a great many of the arguments surrounding quantitative Bayesian confirmation theory are implicitly sensitive to choice of measure of confirmation. Such arguments are enthymematic, since they tacitly presuppose that certain relevance measures should be used (for various purposes) rather than other relevance measures that have been proposed and defended in the philosophical literature. I present a survey of this pervasive class of Bayesian confirmation-theoretic enthymemes, and a brief analysis of some recent attempts to resolve the problem of measure sensitivity.

Type
Probability and Statistical Inference
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 66 , Issue S3: Supplement. Proceedings of the 1998 Biennial Meetings of the Philosophy of Science Association. Part I: Contributed Papers Sep., 1999 , 1999 , pp. S362 - S378
Copyright
Copyright © 1999 by the Philosophy of Science Association

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Footnotes

‡

Thanks to Marty Barrett, Ellery Eells, Malcolm Forster, Ken Harris, Mike Kruse, Elliott Sober, and, especially, Patrick Maher for useful conversations on relevant issues.

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