Future needs for fixed and removable partial dentures in the United States,☆☆,

Presented before the Greater New York Academy of Prosthodontics Annual Meeting, New York, N.Y., December 2000.
https://doi.org/10.1067/mpr.2002.121204Get rights and content

Abstract

Statement of Problem. Because of the decline in missing teeth among most adults, prosthodontic advanced training programs are concerned about the need for prosthodontics in the future. Purpose. An analysis was conducted to project the unmet need for fixed and removable partial dentures in the years 2005, 2010, and 2020. Material and Methods. Unmet need was calculated as follows: Total need equals the number of persons in each age cohort multiplied by the percentage who need a fixed or removable partial denture multiplied by the average procedure time required to provide the service. Total unmet need then equals total need minus the annual supply of prosthodontic services delivered by prosthodontists and general practitioners. Results. Projected results indicate that total unmet need will increase from 488 million hours in 2005 to 517 million hours in 2010 and to 560 million hours in 2020. Conclusion. The significance of the results is that unmet prosthodontic need will increase and exceed the supply of services for the foreseeable 20-year future. Practicing dentists will find that a sizable minority of the population will continue to need fixed and removable partial denture services. (J Prosthet Dent 2002;87:9-14.)

Section snippets

Material and methods

Unmet need is defined here as the quantity of treatment required by a population beyond that provided by the dental profession. Because of economic constraints, the need for dental care exceeds the demand for dental care. However, socioeconomic differences were at least partially controlled in this analysis because the epidemiologic data included estimates from all socioeconomic levels.

The need for prosthodontic dental services usually is determined by a dental professional during an oral

Results

Table IV summarizes the total hours per year available for the provision of prosthetic services.

. Supply of prosthodontic services: estimated provider time (in hours/week) of U.S. active general dentists* and prosthodontists available to render prosthetic services in the United States

YearNumber of dentistsChairside h/wkwk/yTotal provider time (h/y)
20053,189 Prosthodontists33.3047.85,076,058
129,710 General practitioners6.7247.841,664,927
Total annual supply = 46,740,985
20103,263 Prosthodontists33.30

Discussion

The results of this analysis show a large and increasing amount of unmet prosthodontic need in the future. This projection is probably an underestimate for several reasons. First, the chairside time estimated for the provision of FPDs was based on a 3-unit prosthesis. Many patients need prostheses with 4 or more units; hence, the overall required chairside time is probably greater than estimated. Second, a range of prosthodontic services—including complete dentures, overdentures, posts and

Conclusions

The results of this analysis show a large and growing need for prosthodontic treatment that will exceed the supply available in the years 2005, 2010, and 2020. Contrary to the research hypothesis and the well-documented decline in tooth loss and edentulism in the United States, the need for fixed and removable partial dentures will actually increase. At least 2 factors may account for these circumstances: the substantial growth in the U.S. population and the extended life expectancy of the

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aProfessor and Chair, Department of Oral Health Policy and Epidemiology.

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bStudent Research Assistant, Department of Oral Health Policy and Epidemiology.

Reprint requests to: Dr Chester W. Douglass, Department of Oral Health Policy and Epidemiology, Harvard School of Dental Medicine, 188 Longwood Ave, Boston, MA 02115, Fax: (617)432-0047, E-mail: [email protected]

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