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DOI: 10.1055/s-0036-1592982
The MSKCC nomogram is more accurate in the prediction of overall survival in a German endometrial cancer patient population than the FIGO staging system
Goal: Nomograms have shown better discrimination and calibration values to predict overall survival (OS) compared to conventional staging systems for a number of tumors. We tested the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram for the prediction of OS in our endometrial cancer population.
Materials and methods: 491 endometrial cancer patients who received primary surgical treatment at the Universitaetsfrauenklinik (UFK) Freiburg between 1991 and 2011 were included and a dataset of 50 covariates was created.
Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of survival. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were created for the FIGO 1988, FIGO 2009 staging classification and for the MSKCC 1,3 and 5 year-survival prediction models. The calculated area under the curve (AUC) values were compared.
Results: After a mean follow-up time of 100 months, 232 patients were reported dead. FIGO stage (1988 and 2009) was an independent predictors of survival (p < 0.01). The AUC values of the ROC curves were 0.66 (FIGO 1988), 0.64 (FIGO 2009), 0.79 (predicted 1-year OS), 0.79 (predicted 3-year OS) and 0.8 (predicted 5-year OS).
Conclusion: In this external validation, the FIGO classification showed a moderate and the MSKCC models showed a good accuracy in predicting OS in endometrial cancer patients. The MSKCC nomogram may be useful for a better patient stratification in clinical trials.