Forecasting and evaluation of traffic safety impacts: driving assistance systems against road infrastructure measures
Forecasting and evaluation of traffic safety impacts: driving assistance systems against road infrastructure measures
- Author(s): M. Lu and K. Wevers
- DOI: 10.1049/iet-its:20060080
For access to this article, please select a purchase option:
Buy article PDF
Buy Knowledge Pack
IET members benefit from discounts to all IET publications and free access to E&T Magazine. If you are an IET member, log in to your account and the discounts will automatically be applied.
Thank you
Your recommendation has been sent to your librarian.
- Author(s): M. Lu 1 and K. Wevers 2
-
-
View affiliations
-
Affiliations:
1: Lund University, Lund, Sweden
2: NAVTEQ, LB Veldhoven, The Netherlands
-
Affiliations:
1: Lund University, Lund, Sweden
- Source:
Volume 1, Issue 2,
June 2007,
p.
117 – 123
DOI: 10.1049/iet-its:20060080 , Print ISSN 1751-956X, Online ISSN 1751-9578
The authors examine the use of a one-variable first-order grey model (GM(1,1)), to model and forecast the trend of the level of cumulative traffic accident severity for strategic scenarios for implementation of driving assistance systems, physical infrastructure redesign and combinations of the two categories of measures. The accident severity levels (in terms of fatalities and hospitalisations) of five scenarios for the period 2003–2007 are analysed and modelled. In addition, the trend of fatalities and hospitalisations for each scenario for the years 2008 until 2010 is forecasted. For further policy evaluation, the costs of each scenario (for the years 2003–2010) are estimated. By using cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) the five scenarios for improving road traffic safety are compared.
Inspec keywords: forecasting theory; grey systems; road traffic; road safety
Other keywords:
Subjects: Combinatorial mathematics; Systems theory applications in transportation; Traffic engineering computing
References
-
-
1)
- Y. Jiang , Q. Xu . Ordering method for grey decision with multi-targets. J. Grey Syst. , 253 - 260
-
2)
- J. Morán , E. Granada , J.L. Míguez , J. Porteiro . Use of grey relational analysis to assess and optimize small biomass boilers. Fuel Process. Technol. , 123 - 127
-
3)
- S.T. Xue , A. Mita , Y.Y. Qian , L.Y. Xie , H.T. Zheng . Application of a grey control system model to structural damage identification. Smart Mater. Struct. , 125 - 129
-
4)
- J.-L. Deng . Introduction to grey system theory. J. Grey Syst. , 1 , 1 - 24
-
5)
- M. Lu . Modelling the effects of road traffic safety measures. Accid. Anal. Prev. , 3 , 507 - 517
-
6)
- F. Poppe , J. Muizelaar . (1996) Financiering van een duurzaam-veilig wegverkeerssysteem (Financing a sustainably safe road traffic system).
-
7)
- S. Makridakis , S.C. Wheelwright . (1978) Forecasting: methods and applications.
-
8)
- C.S. Zhou , J. Deng . Stability analysis of grey discrete-time systems. IEEE Trans. Autom. Control , 2 , 173 - 175
-
9)
- Heft, R.C.: `The navigation market for road vehicles', Proc. IEEE Position Location and Navigation Symp., 1998, p. 109–114.
-
10)
- (2001) Nationaal Verkeers – en Vervoersplan 2001–2020 (National Traffic and Transport Plan 2001–2020).
-
11)
- T.C. Chang , K.L. Wen , F.Y. Hsu . An artificial grey-GARCH model for transmission of return volatility in NASDAQ Index. J. Grey Syst. , 1 , 28 - 37
-
12)
- R. Guo . Repairable system modeling via grey differential equations. J. Grey Syst. , 1 , 69 - 91
-
13)
- D. Guo , R. Guo , C. Thiart . The coupling of regression model and differential equation model in GM(1, 1) modeling and extended GM(1, 1) models. J. Grey Syst. , 2 , 143 - 154
-
14)
- J.H. Wu , K.L. Wen . Rolling error in GM(1, 1) modelling. J. Grey Syst. , 77 - 80
-
15)
- J.L. Chen , J.H. Wen , J.C. Wen . Study on class ratio of grey modeling. J. Grey Syst. , 1 , 31 - 38
-
16)
- M. Lu , K. Wevers , Van der Heijden . Technical feasibility of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) for road traffic safety. Trans. Plan. Technol. , 3 , 167 - 187
-
17)
- J. Deng . Theory and method of social economic grey systems. Social Sci. China , 47 - 60
-
18)
- J.H. Shen . On the condition of white exponential law. J. Grey Syst. , 1 , 59 - 64
-
19)
- K.L. Wen . (2004) Grey systems: modelling and prediction.
-
20)
- Lu, M., Van der Heijden, R., Wevers, K.: `Traffic safety – from road infrastructure to ITS', Proc. 10th World Congress on ITS, 2003, Madrid.
-
21)
- K.H. Cheng , W.C. Chang . A grey mathematical model for earthquake forecasting. J. Grey Syst. , 2 , 131 - 142
-
22)
- M. Lu , K. Wevers . Application of grey relational analysis for evaluating road traffic safety measures: advanced driver assistance systems against infrastructure redesign. IET Intell. Trans. Syst. , 1 , 3 - 14
-
23)
- F.Y. Hsu , C.J. Wu , K.L. Wen , J.H. Wu . The pure numerical graphical study on the errors of GM(1, 1|α). J. Grey Syst. , 1 , 65 - 74
-
24)
- M.L. You , K.L. Wen . The error analysis in GM(1, 1) model. J. Grey Syst. , 1 , 63 - 70
-
25)
- (1997) Convenant startprogramma duurzaam veilig (Agreement start programme sustainably safe).
-
26)
- J.-L. Deng . Control problems of grey systems. Syst. Control Lett. , 288 - 294
-
27)
- S. Liu , Y. Lin . (1998) An introduction to grey systems: foundations, methodology and applications.
-
28)
- R.J. Lian , B.F. Lin , J.H. Huang . A grey prediction fuzzy controller for constant cutting force in turning. Int. J. Mach. Tools Manuf. , 1047 - 1056
-
29)
- S.T.M.C. Janssen . (2005) De verkeersveiligheidsverkenner gebruikt in de regio: de rekenmethode en de aannamen daarin.
-
30)
- T.H.M. El-Fouly , E.F. El-Saadany , M.M.A. Salama . Grey predictor for wind energy conversion systems output power prediction. IEEE Trans. Power Syst. , 3 , 1450 - 1452
-
31)
- J. Deng . (2002) Elements on grey theory.
-
32)
- J.H. Wu , J. Deng , K.L. Wen . (1996) Basics of grey analysis.
-
33)
- B.X. Zhang , J.J. Luo . Grey dynamic model (GM) with application to grain prediction. Syst. Eng. , 36 - 37
-
34)
- H.J. Wu , C.B. Chen . An alternative form for grey relational grades. J. Grey Syst. , 1 , 7 - 12
-
35)
- P. Zhou , B.W. Ang , K.L. Poh . A trigonometric grey prediction approach to forecasting electricity demand. Energy , 14 , 2503 - 2511
-
36)
- N. Yu , W. Ma , M. Su . Application of adaptive Grey predictor based algorithm to boiler drum level control. Energy Convers. Manage. , 2999 - 3007
-
37)
- L.Y. Yu . The grey forecast for urban domestic wastes. Environ. Pollution Control , 7 - 9
-
1)