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Sedimentary basins reduce stability of Antarctic ice streams through groundwater feedbacks

Nature Geoscience volume 15, pages 645–650 (2022)Cite this article

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Abstract

Antarctica preserves Earth’s largest ice-sheet, which in response to climate warming, may lose ice mass and raise sea level by several metres. The ice-sheet bed exerts critical controls on dynamic mass loss through feedbacks between water and heat fluxes, topographic forcing, till deformation and basal sliding. Here we show that sedimentary basins may amplify critical feedbacks that are known to impact ice-sheet retreat dynamics. We create a high-resolution subglacial geology classification for Antarctica by applying a supervised machine-learning method to geophysical data, revealing the distribution of sedimentary basins. Hydro-mechanical numerical modelling demonstrates that during glacial retreat, where sedimentary basins exist, the groundwater discharge rate scales with the rate of ice unloading. Antarctica’s most dynamic ice streams, including Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers, possess sedimentary basins in their upper catchments. Enhanced groundwater discharge and its associated feedbacks are likely to amplify basal sliding and increase the vulnerability of these catchments to rapid ice retreat and enhanced dynamic mass loss.

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Fig. 1: Current understanding of subglacial geology from outcrop, seismic studies and regional potential field interpretations.
Fig. 2: Sedimentary-basin likelihood map from RF classification.
Fig. 3: Sedimentary-basin likelihood map focusing on key ice-stream regions.
Fig. 4: Groundwater discharge through time for moderate to fast retreat rates.

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Data availability

The results of RF classification and hydro-mechanical modelling can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6611940.

Code availability

The R notebook for RF classification can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6611940. The code of CVEFM_Rift2D can be accessed in the supplementary material from the original paper32.

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Acknowledgements

We thank M. Morlighem for providing basal friction data. This research was supported by the Australian Research Council Special Research Initiative, Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (project number SR200100008). L.L. was supported by China Scholarship Council–The University of Western Australia joint PhD scholarship (201806170054). M.D.L. was supported by ARC DECRA DE190100431 and ARC ITTC IC190100031. We thank M. Siegert for his constructive comments on an earlier version of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Earth Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia

    Lu Li, Alan R. A. Aitken & Mark D. Lindsay

  2. The Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia

    Alan R. A. Aitken

  3. CSIRO Mineral Resources, Perth, Western Australia, Australia

    Mark D. Lindsay

  4. ARC Industrial Transformation and Training Centre in Data Analytics for Resources and the Environment (DARE), Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

    Mark D. Lindsay

  5. School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics, Swansea University, Swansea, Wales, UK

    Bernd Kulessa

  6. School of Geography, Planning, and Spatial Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

    Bernd Kulessa

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Contributions

L.L. led the research; L.L., A.R.A.A. and M.D.L. conceived the scope and design of the research. L.L. and A.R.A.A. led the writing of the manuscript. L.L., A.R.A.A. and B.K. discussed and wrote the ice-sheet dynamics section. M.D.L. and A.R.A.A. advised L.L. in performing random-forest classification. A.R.A.A. advised L.L. in performing hydro-mechanical modelling. All authors contributed to the writing of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Lu Li.

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Nature Geoscience thanks Calvin Shackleton and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Primary Handling Editor: Tom Richardson, in collaboration with the Nature Geoscience team.

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Extended data

Extended Data Fig. 1 Rate of grounding line migration rate versus rate of ice thinning.

The black dots show the estimated continental wide grounding line retreat rate versus ice thinning rate33. The blue crosses mark the grounding line retreat rate that we used in hydro-mechanical modelling. Detail of the estimation of grounding line migration and ice thinning rate are shown in Supplementary Information 2.1.2.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Relationship between sedimentary basin likelihood with the current ice thinning rate and ice velocity in Antarctica.

a, Sedimentary basin likelihood with overlying ice thinning rate as estimated by satellite laser altimetry data53. b, Sedimentary basin likelihood with overlying ice-sheet surface velocity54.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Sections 1 and 2.

Supplementary Video 1

Vertical water flux during the glacier cycle (base permeability caseː κz = 10−15 m2).

Supplementary Video 2

Vertical water flux during the glacier cycle (high permeability case: κz = 10−13 m2).

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Li, L., Aitken, A.R.A., Lindsay, M.D. et al. Sedimentary basins reduce stability of Antarctic ice streams through groundwater feedbacks. Nat. Geosci. 15, 645–650 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00992-5

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