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Tropospheric ozone trends at Mauna Loa Observatory tied to decadal climate variability

Nature Geoscience volume 7, pages 136–143 (2014)Cite this article

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Abstract

A potent greenhouse gas and biological irritant, tropospheric ozone is also the primary source of atmospheric hydroxyl radicals, which remove numerous hazardous trace gases from the atmosphere. Tropospheric ozone levels have increased in spring at remote sites in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere over the past few decades; this increase has been attributed to a growth in Asian precursor emissions. In contrast, 40 years of continuous measurements at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii reveal little change in tropospheric ozone levels during spring (March–April), but a rise in autumn (September–October). Here we examine the contribution of decadal shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns to decadal variability in tropospheric ozone levels at Mauna Loa using a suite of chemistry–climate model simulations. We show that the flow of ozone-rich air from Eurasia towards Hawaii during spring weakened in the 2000s as a result of La-Niña-like decadal cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. During autumn, in contrast, the flow of ozone-rich air from Eurasia to Hawaii strengthened in the mid-1990s onwards, coincident with the positive phase of the Pacific–North American pattern. We suggest that these shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns can reconcile observed trends in tropospheric ozone levels at Mauna Loa and the northern mid-latitudes in recent decades. We conclude that decadal variability in atmospheric circulation patterns needs to be considered when attributing observed changes in tropospheric ozone levels to human-induced trends in precursor emissions.

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Figure 1: The changing ozone seasonal cycle at MLO from 1980–1995 to 1996–2011.
Figure 2: Mean climate in spring versus autumn.
Figure 3: Interannual ozone variability at MLO.
Figure 4: Decadal variability and trends for March–April during 1960–2012.
Figure 5: Observed (left) and simulated (right) changes in daily ozone distribution at MLO.
Figure 6: Stronger transport of mid-latitude ozone to MLO in September tied to a shift in the PNA pattern in the mid-1990s.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by NOAA’s Cooperative Institute for Climate Science at Princeton University. We thank I. Held, H. Levy II and P. Ginoux for insightful discussion and comments on the manuscript. The dedication of the MLO staff in maintaining the 40-year observational record is an exceptional accomplishment. The radon-222 data were provided by the US Department of Energy, Environmental Monitoring Laboratory (1991–1996) and the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organization (ANSTO) (1997–2011). Discussion with S. Chambers of ANSTO provided information for harmonizing the Radon data sets.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08540, USA

    Meiyun Lin

  2. NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey 08540, USA

    Meiyun Lin, Larry W. Horowitz & Songmiao Fan

  3. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA

    Samuel J. Oltmans

  4. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA

    Samuel J. Oltmans

  5. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Lamont-Doherty Earth-Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, 10964

    Arlene M. Fiore

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Contributions

M.Y.L. conceived the study, performed model experiments, analysed the data, and wrote the manuscript with input from all coauthors. L.W.H., A.M.F. and S.F. assisted M.Y.L. with model experiments and discussed the results. S.J.O. provided the ozone and radon measurements and guided interpretation of the data sets. All authors edited and commented on the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Meiyun Lin.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Lin, M., Horowitz, L., Oltmans, S. et al. Tropospheric ozone trends at Mauna Loa Observatory tied to decadal climate variability. Nature Geosci 7, 136–143 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2066

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