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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L21808, doi:10.1029/2007GL031981, 2007

Inconsistency between atmospheric dynamics and temperatures during the exceptional 2006/2007 fall/winter and recent warming in Europe

P. Yiou

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France


R. Vautard

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France


P. Naveau

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France


C. Cassou

Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique, CNRS URA 1875, Toulouse, France


Abstract

Europe witnessed unprecedented warmth persisting throughout fall and winter 2006–2007, with only a few cold breaks. Whether this anomaly and recent warming in Europe can be linked to changes in atmospheric dynamics is a key question in the climate change prospective. We show that despite the fall/winter atmospheric flow was favorable to warmth, it cannot explain alone such an exceptional anomaly. Observed temperatures remained well above those found for analogue atmospheric circulations in other fall and winter seasons. Such an offset is also found during the last decade and culminates in 2006/2007. These observational results suggest that the main drivers of recent European warming are not changes in regional atmospheric flow and weather regimes frequencies, contrasting with observed changes before 1994.

Received 10 September 2007; accepted 2 October 2007; published 6 November 2007.

Keywords: circulation analogues; fall/winter 2006; temperature anomalies; weather regimes; atmospheric circulation.

Index Terms: 1616 Global Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513); 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (0429, 3309); 1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change (1225); 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325).

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Citation: Yiou, P., R. Vautard, P. Naveau, and C. Cassou (2007), Inconsistency between atmospheric dynamics and temperatures during the exceptional 2006/2007 fall/winter and recent warming in Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L21808, doi:10.1029/2007GL031981.