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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 30, NO. 18, 1932, doi:10.1029/2003GL017801, 2003

Modeling ocean heat content changes during the last millennium

Thomas J. Crowley

Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA


Steven K. Baum

Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA


Kwang-Yul Kim

Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA


Gabriele C. Hegerl

Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA


William T. Hyde

Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA


Abstract

Observational studies show a significant increase in ocean heat content over the last half century. Herein we estimate heat content changes during the last millennium with a climate model whose forcing terms have been best-fit to surface proxy data. The model simulates the observed late 20th century ocean heat content increase and a comparable Little Ice Age minimum. When glacial advances are factored in, these results imply a sea level fall after the Middle Ages that is consistent with some geologic data. The present ocean heat content increase can be traced back to the mid-19th century, with a near-linear rate of change during the 20th century.

Received 22 May 2003; accepted 15 August 2003; published 19 September 2003.

Index Terms: 0370 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Volcanic effects (8409); 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (3309); 1635 Global Change: Oceans (4203); 4556 Oceanography: Physical: Sea level variations.

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Citation: Crowley, T. J., S. K. Baum, K. Kim, G. C. Hegerl, and W. T. Hyde (2003), Modeling ocean heat content changes during the last millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(18), 1932, doi:10.1029/2003GL017801.