Abstract
Decisions about HIV prevention and treatment programs are based on factors such as program costs and health benefits, social and ethical issues, and political considerations. AIDS policy models – that is, models that evaluate the monetary and non-monetary consequences of decisions about HIV/AIDS interventions – can play a role in helping policy makers make better decisions. This paper provides an overview of the key issues related to developing useful AIDS policy models. We highlight issues of importance for researchers in the field of AIDS policy modeling as well as for policy makers. These include geographic area, setting, target groups, interventions, affordability and effectiveness of interventions, type and time horizon of policy model, and type of economic analysis. This paper is not intended to be an exhaustive review of the AIDS policy modeling literature, although many papers from the literature are discussed as examples; rather, we aim to convey the composition, achievements, and challenges of AIDS policy modeling.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
S.M. Adib, J.G. Joseph, D.G. Ostrow, M. Tal and S.A. Schwartz, Relapse in sexual behavior among homosexual men: a 2-year follow-up from the Chicago MACS/CCS, AIDS 5(6) (1991) 757–760.
AIDS/TB Committee of the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America, Management of healthcare workers infected with hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, human immunodeficiency virus, or other bloodborne pathogens, Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology 18(5) (1997) 349–363.
J.G. Anderson and M.M. Anderson, HIV screening and treatment of pregnant women and their newborns: a simulation-based analysis, Simulation 71(4) (1998) 276–284.
J.G. Anderson and M.M. Anderson, Predicting the economic impact of treatment of HIV – positive pregnant women and their newborns, in: Proceedings of the 1998 Medical Sciences Simulation Conference, eds. J. Anderson and M. Katzper (Society for Computer Simulation International, San Diego, CA, 1998).
J.G. Anderson, M.M. Anderson, L.L. Casebeer and R.E. Kristofco, Physician management of the care of the HIV-infected pregnant women: a simulation, in: Proceedings of the International Conference on Health Sciences Simulation, 2000 Western MultiConference, San Diego, California, eds. J.G. Anderson and M. Katzper (Society for Computer Simulation International, San Diego, CA, 2000).
R.M. Anderson, The role of mathematical models in the study of HIV transmission and the epidemiology of AIDS, Journal of AIDS 1(3) (1988) 241–256.
R.M. Anderson, Mathematical and statistical studies of the epidemiology of HIV, AIDS 3(6) (1989) 333–346.
Anonymous, Reducing needlesticks and blood exposure: tracking, training, technology, Hospital Security and Safety Management 19(11) (1999) 5–10.
M. Barry, Effect of the U.S. embargo and economic decline on health in Cuba, Annals of Internal Medicine 132(2) (2000) 151–154.
R. Bayer and A. Fairchild-Carrino, AIDS and the limits of control: public health orders, quarantine, and recalcitrant behavior, American Journal of Public Health 83(10) (1993) 1471–1476.
F. Behets, S. Bertozzi, M. Kasali, M. Kashamuka, L. Atikala, C. Brown, R.W. Ryder and T.C. Quinn, Successful use of pooled sera to determine HIV-1 seroprevalence in Zaire with development of costefficiency models, AIDS 4(8) (1990) 737–741.
M. Beichert, B. Buchholz, M. Weigel, M. Martini, R. Breitkreutz and F. Melchert, Prenatal care of a HIV-1-positive pregnancy and birth, Zentralblatt fuer Gynaekologie 121(11) (1999) 549–552.
M. Berer, Reducing perinatal HIV transmission in developing countries through antenatal and delivery care, and breastfeeding: supporting infant survival by supporting women's survival, Bulletin of the World Health Organization 77(11) (1999) 871–877.
H. Berger and M.J. Smith, Economics of methadone maintenance, New England Journal of Medicine 290(13) (1974) 751.
R.S. Bernstein, D.C. Sokal, S.T. Seitz, B. Auvert, J. Stover and W. Naamara, Simulating the control of a heterosexual HIV epidemic in a severely affected east African city, Interfaces 28(3) (1998) 101–126.
J.D. Birkmeyer, J.P. AuBuchon, B. Littenberg, G.T. O'Connor, R.F. Nease, Jr., W.C. Nugent and L.T. Goodnough, Cost-effectiveness of preoperative autologous donation in coronary artery bypass grafting, Annals of Thoracic Surgery 57(1) (1994) 161–168.
S.M. Blower, H.B. Gershengorn and R.M. Grant, A tale of two futures: HIV and antiretroviral therapy in San Francisco, Science 287(5453) (2000) 650–654.
S.M. Blower, D. Hartel, H. Dowlatabadi, R.M. Anderson and R.M. May, Drugs, sex and HIV – a mathematical model for New York City, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences 331(1260) (1991) 171–187.
J.T. Boerma, A.J. Nunn and J.A. Whitworth, Mortality impact of the AIDS epidemic: evidence from community studies in less developed countries, AIDS 12(Supplement 1) (1998) S3–S14.
E. Bos and R.A. Bulatao, The demographic-impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa – short-and long-term projections, International Journal of Forecasting 8(3) (1992) 367–384.
M.L. Brandeau, AIDS policy modeling: a social role for operations research, Ricerca Operativa 27(81–82) (1998) 5–33.
M.L. Brandeau, Difficult choices, urgent needs: optimal investment in HIV prevention programs, in: Quantitative Evaluation of HIV Prevention Programs, eds. E.H. Kaplan and R. Brookmeyer (Yale University Press, New Haven, CT), in press.
M.L. Brandeau, H.L. Lee, D.K. Owens, C.H. Sox and R.M. Wachter, Policy analysis of human immunodeficiency virus screening and intervention: a review of modeling approaches, AIDS and Public Policy Journal 5(2) (1990) 119–131.
M.L. Brandeau, H.L. Lee, D.K. Owens, C.H. Sox and R.M. Wachter, A policy model of human-immunodeficiency-virus screening and intervention, Interfaces 21(3) (1991) 5–25.
M.L. Brandeau and D.K. Owens, When women return to risk: costs and benefits of HIV screening in the presence of relapse, in: Modeling the AIDS Epidemic: Planning, Policy and Prediction, eds. E. Kaplan and M.L. Brandeau (Raven Press, New York, NY, 1994).
M.L. Brandeau, D.K. Owens, C.H. Sox and R.M. Wachter, Screening women of childbearing age for human immunodeficiency virus. A cost-benefit analysis, Archives of Internal Medicine 152(11) (1992) 2229–2237.
M.L. Brandeau, D.K. Owens, C.H. Sox and R.M. Wachter, Screening women of childbearing age for human immunodeficiency virus – a model-based policy analysis, Management Science 39(1) (1993) 72–92.
R.P. Brettle, A. Wilson, S. Povey, S. Morris, R. Morgan, C.L. Leen, S. Hutchinson, S. Lewis and S. Gore, Combination therapy for HIV: the effect on inpatient activity, morbidity and mortality of a cohort of patients, International Journal of STD and AIDS 9(2) (1998) 80–87.
Y.J. Bryson, Perinatal HIV-1 transmission: recent advances and therapeutic interventions, AIDS 10(Supplement 3) (1996) S33–S42.
T. Cameron, Proposed initiatives for healthy children orphaned by AIDS, Journal of Health and Social Policy 11(4) (2000) 15–39.
C.A. Campbell, Prostitution, AIDS, and preventive health behavior, Social Science and Medicine 32(12) (1991) 1367–1378.
J.P. Caulkins, E.H. Kaplan, P. Lurie, T. O'Connor and S.H. Ahn, Can difficult-to-reuse syringes reduce the spread of HIV among injection drug users?, Interfaces 28(3) (1998) 23–33.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Patterns of sexual behavior change among homosexual/bisexual men – selected U.S. sites, 1987–1990, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 40(46) (1991) 792–794.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Guidelines for the use of antiretroviral agents in HIV-infected adults and adolescents, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 47(RR-5) (1998) 42–82.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Guidelines for the use of antiretroviral agents in pediatric HIV infection, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 47(RR-4) (1998) 1–44.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Public health service guidelines for the management of health-care worker exposures to HIV and recommendations for postexposure prophylaxis, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 47(RR-7) (1998) 1–34.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Public health service task force recommendations for the use of antiretroviral drugs in pregnant women infected with HIV-1 for maternal health and for reducing perinatal HIV-1 transmission in the United States, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 47(RR-2) (1998) 1–30.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Achievements in Public Health, 1900–1999: control of infectious diseases, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 48(29) (1999) 621–629.
W.E. Chavey, S.B. Cantor, R.D. Clover, J.A. Reinarz and S.J. Spann, Cost-effectiveness analysis of screening health care workers for HIV, Journal of Family Practice 38(3) (1994) 249–257.
K.H. Choi and T.J. Coates, Prevention of HIV infection, AIDS 8(10) (1994) 1371–1389.
J. Cohen, HIV transmission. AIDS researchers look to Africa for new insights, Science 287(5455) (2000) 942–943.
O.J. Cohen and A.S. Fauci, Transmission of drug-resistant strains of HIV-1: unfortunate, but inevitable, Lancet 354(9180) (1999) 697–698.
J.H. Condra, W.A. Schleif, O.M. Blahy et al., In-vivo emergence of HIV-1 variants resistant to multiple protease inhibitors, Nature 374 (1995) 569–571.
S. Conquy, E. Chartier, M. Zerbib, N. Thiounn, T. Flam and B. Debre, Risk of accidental contamination by the human immunodefi-ciency virus (HIV): review and management, Progres en Urologie 9(2) (1999) 330–341.
B. Crossette, Most nations fail to supply safe blood, W.H.O. finds, New York Times, April 7 (2000) A6.
W.W. Darrow, J.J. Potterat, R.B. Rothenberg, D.E. Woodhouse, S.Q. Muth and A.S. Klovdahl, Using knowledge of social networks to prevent human immunodeficiency virus infections: the Colorado Springs study, Sociological Focus 32(2) (1999) 143–158.
D. Davies, C. Carne and C. Camilleri-Ferrante, Combined antiviral treatment in HIV infection. Is it value for money?, Public Health 113(6) (1999) 315–317.
V. De Angelis, Planning home assistance for AIDS patients in the city of Rome, Italy, Interfaces 28(3) (1998) 75–83.
S.G. Deeks, M. Smith, M. Holodniy and J.O. Kahn, HIV-1 protease inhibitors. A review for clinicians, Journal of the American Medical Association 277(2) (1997) 145–153.
D.C. Des Jarlais and N. Padian, Strategies for universalistic and targeted HIV prevention, Journal of AIDS and Human Retrovirology 16(2) (1997) 127–136.
R. Detels, A. Munoz, G. McFarlane, L.A. Kingsley, J.B. Margolick, J. Giorgi, L.K. Schrager and J.P. Phair, Effectiveness of potent antiretroviral therapy on time to AIDS and death in men with known HIV infection duration, Journal of the American Medical Association 280(17) (1998) 1497–1503.
R.S. Drew, C. Makufa and G. Foster, Strategies for providing care and support to children orphaned by AIDS, AIDS Care 10(Supplement 1) (1998) S9–S15.
D.M. Edwards, R.D. Shachter and D.K. Owens, A dynamic HIVtransmission model for evaluating the costs and benefits of vaccine programs, Interfaces 28(3) (1998) 144–166.
M. Egger, B. Hirschel, P. Francioli, P. Sudre, M. Wirz, M. Flepp, M. Rickenbach, R. Malinverni, P. Vernazza and M. Battegay, Impact of new antiretroviral combination therapies in HIV infected patients in Switzerland: prospective multicentre study, British Medical Journal 315(7117) (1997) 1194–1199.
R.S. Eisenstaedt and T.E. Getzen, Screening blood donors for human immunodeficiency virus antibody: cost-benefit analysis, American Journal of Public Health 78(4) (1988) 450–454.
Encyclopedia Britannica Online (Britannica Advanced Publishing Inc., Chicago, IL, 1994).
A.L. Fairchild and E.A. Tynan, Policies of containment: immigration in the era of AIDS, American Journal of Public Health 84(12) (1994) 2011–2022.
J.A. Feinleib and R.T. Michael, Reported changes in sexual behavior in response to AIDS in the United States, Preventive Medicine 27(3) (1998) 400–411.
K.A. Fenton and T.A. Peterman, HIV partner notification: taking a new look, AIDS 11(13) (1997) 1535–1546.
S. Fluss, National AIDS legislation: an overview of some global developments, in: International Law and AIDS, International Response, Current Issues, and Future Directions, eds. L. Gostin and L. Porter (American Bar Association, USA, 1992).
S.S. Forsythe, The affordability of antiretroviral therapy in developing countries: what policymakers need to know, AIDS 12(Supplement 2) (1998) S11–S18.
S. Foster and A. Buve, Benefits of HIV screening of blood transfusions in Zambia, Lancet 346(8969) (1995) 225–227.
M.G. Fowler, R.J. Simonds and A. Roongpisuthipong, Update on perinatal HIV transmission, Pediatric Clinics of North America 47(1) (2000) 21–38.
K.A. Freedberg, J.A. Scharfstein, G.R. Seage, 3rd, E. Losina, M.C. Weinstein, D.E. Craven and A.D. Paltiel, The cost-effectiveness of preventing AIDS-related opportunistic infections, Journal of the American Medical Association 279(2) (1998) 130–136.
S.E. Frey, HIV vaccines, Infectious Disease Clinics of North America 13(1) (1999) 95–112.
S.R. Friedman, A. Neaigus, B. Jose, R. Curtis, M. Goldstein, G. Ildefonso, R.B. Rothenberg and D.C. Des Jarlais, Sociometric risk networks and risk for HIV infection, American Journal of Public Health 87(8) (1997) 1289–1296.
C.M. Friedrich and M.L. Brandeau, Using simulation to find optimal funding levels for HIV prevention programs with different costs and effectiveness, in: Proceedings of the 1998 Medical Sciences Simulation Conference, eds. J.G. Anderson and M. Katzper (Society for Computer Simulation International, San Diego, CA, 1998).
C.B. Gable, J.C. Tierce, D. Simison, D. Ward and K. Motte, Costs of HIV+/AIDS at CD4+ counts disease stages based on treatment protocols, Journal of AIDS and Human Retrovirology 12(4) (1996) 413–420.
M.H. Gail, D. Preston and S. Piantadosi, Disease prevention models of voluntary confidential screening for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), Statistics in Medicine 8(1) (1989) 59–81.
H.K. Geiss, Recommendations for surgical therapy planning and interventions in patients with AIDS, Chirurg 69(5) (1998) 503–510.
G.A. Gellert, International migration and control of communicable diseases, Social Science and Medicine 37(12) (1993) 1489–1499.
G.M. Gelles, Costs and benefits of HIV-1 antibody testing of donated blood, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 12(3) (1993) 512–531.
D.R. Gerstein, R.A. Johnson, H. Harwood, D. Fountain, N. Suter and K. Malloy, Evaluating recovery services: The California Drug and Alcohol Treatment Assessment (CALDATA), California Department of Alcohol and Drug Programs, Sacramento, CA (1994).
W.N. Gibbs and P. Corcoran, Blood safety in developing countries, Vox Sanguinis 67(4) (1994) 377–381.
N. Gilmore, A.J. Orkin, M. Duckett and S.A. Grover, International travel and AIDS, AIDS 3(Supplement 1) (1989) S225–S230.
M.R. Gold, D.L. Patrick, G.W. Torrance, D.G. Fryback, D.C. Hadorn, M.S. Kamlet, N. Daniels and M.C. Weinstein, Identifying and valuing outcomes, in: Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine, eds. M.R. Gold, J.E. Siegel, L.B. Russell and M.C. Weinstein (Oxford University Press, New York, NY, 1996).
M.R. Gold, J.E. Siegel, L.B. Russell and M.C. Weinstein, Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine (Oxford University Press, New York, NY, 1996).
K. Goldin, Long-run impacts of AIDS, Contemporary Policy Issues 10(1) (1992) 21–30.
J.D. Graham, P.S. Corso, J.M. Morris, M. Segui-Gomez and M.C. Weinstein, Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of clinical and public health measures, Annual Review of Public Health 19 (1998) 125–152.
K. Hanson, AIDS: What does economics have to offer?, Health Policy and Planning 7(4) (1992) 315–328.
R.L. Harris, E.V. Boisaubin, P.D. Salyer and D.F. Semands, Evaluation of a hospital admission HIV antibody voluntary screening program, Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology 11(12) (1990) 628–634.
H.J. Harwood, R.L. Hubbard, J.J. Collins and J.V. Rachal, The costs of crime and the benefits of drug abuse treatment: a cost-benefit analysis using TOPS data, NIDA Research Monograph 86 (1988) 209–235.
J.J. Harwood, R.L. Hubbard, J.J. Collins and J.V. Rachal, A cost benefit analyses of drug abuse treatment, Research in Law and Policy Studies 3 (1995) 191–214.
K. Heidenberger, Strategic investment in preventive health care: quantitative modelling for programme selection and resource allocation, OR-Spektrum 18(1) (1998) 1–14.
K. Heidenberger and S. Flessa, A system dynamics model for AIDS policy support in Tanzania, European Journal of Operational Research 70(2) (1993) 167–176.
K. Heidenberger and M. Roth, Taxonomies in the strategic management of health technologies: the case of multiperiod compartmental HIV/AIDS policy models, International Journal of Technology Management 15(3/4/5) (1998) 336–358.
R. Heimer, E.H. Kaplan, K. Khoshnood, B. Jariwala and E.C. Cadman, Needle exchange decreases the prevalence of HIV-1 proviral DNA in returned syringes in New Haven, Connecticut, American Journal of Medicine 95(2) (1993) 214–220.
F.J. Hellinger, The lifetime cost of treating a person with HIV, Journal of the American Medical Association 270(4) (1993) 474–478.
H.W. Hethcote and J.W. Van Ark, Modeling HIV transmission and AIDS in the United States (Springer, Berlin, 1992).
H.W. Hethcote, Modeling AIDS prevention programs in a population of homosexual men, in: Modeling the AIDS Epidemic: Planning, Policy and Prediction, eds. E. Kaplan and M.L. Brandeau (Raven Press, New York, NY, 1994).
J.P. Hoffmann, S.S. Su and A. Pach, Changes in network characteristics and HIV risk behavior among injection drug users, Drug and Alcohol Dependence 46(1–2) (1997) 41–51.
R.S. Hogg, A.E. Weber, K.J. Craib, A.H. Anis, M.V. O'shaughnessy, M.T. Schechter and J.S. Montaner, One world, one hope: the cost of providing antiretroviral therapy to all nations, AIDS 12(16) (1998) 2203–2209.
D.R. Holtgrave, The cost-effectiveness of the components of a comprehensive HIV prevention program, A road map of the literature, in: Handbook of HIV Prevention Policy Analysis, ed. D.R. Holtgrave (Plenum, New York, NY, 1998).
D.R. Holtgrave, Handbook of HIV Prevention Policy Analysis (Plenum, New York, NY, 1998).
D.R. Holtgrave and S.D. Pinkerton, Updates of cost of illness and quality of life estimates for use in economic evaluations of HIV prevention programs, Journal of AIDS and Human Retrovirology 16(1) (1997) 54–62.
D.R. Holtgrave, N.L. Qualls and J.D. Graham, Economic evaluation of HIV prevention programs, Annual Review of Public Health 17(1996) 467–488.
D.R. Holtgrave, R.O. Valdiserri, A.R. Gerber and A.R. Hinman, Human immunodeficiency virus counseling, testing, referral, and partner notification services. A cost-benefit analysis, Archives of Internal Medicine 153(10) (1993) 1225–1230.
A. Houshyar, Screening pregnant women for HIV antibody: costbenefit analysis, AIDS and Public Policy Journal 6(2) (1991) 98–103.
Intergovernmental Health Policy Project, State legislatures revisit the needle exchange and prescription-for-needles controversy, Intergovernmental AIDS Reports 5(2) (1992) 1–5.
V. Isham, Mathematical-modeling of the transmission dynamics of HIV infection and AIDS – a review, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Statistics in Society 151 (1988) 5–30.
Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, Blood Safety and AIDS, UNAIDS point of view, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland (1997).
Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, AIDS epidemic update: December 1999, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland (1999).
Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, AIDS epidemic update: December 1999, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland (2000).
Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, Use of cotrimoxazole prophylaxis in adults and children living with HIV/AIDS in Africa, Recommendations and operational issues, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland (2000).
Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS and Pennsylvania State University, Communications framework for HIV/AIDS,World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland (1999).
A.C. Justice and J.T. King, Jr., The case for a full cost-benefit analysis of preoperative HIV screening, Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 46(11) (1993) 1229–1231.
J. Kahn, Building and testing an effective HIV vaccine, Western Journal of Medicine 171(5–6) (1999) 363–365.
J.G. Kahn, The cost-effectiveness of HIV prevention targeting: how much more bang for the buck?, American Journal of Public Health 86(12) (1996) 1709–1712.
J.G. Kahn, M.L. Brandeau and J. Dunn-Mortimer, OR modeling and AIDS policy: from theory to practice, Interfaces 28(3) (1998) 3–22.
J.G. Kahn, J. Dunn-Mortimer and P. Franks, The use of quantitative data and modeling in HIV policy formulation, Institute for Health Policy Studies, University of California, San Francisco (1999).
J.G. Kahn, S.D. Pinkerton and A.D. Paltiel, Postexposure prophylaxis following HIV exposure, Journal of the American Medical Association 281(14) (1999) 1269–1270.
A. Kane, J. Lloyd, M. Zaffran, L. Simonsen and M. Kane, Transmission of hepatitis B, hepatitis C and human immunodeficiency viruses through unsafe injections in the developing world: model-based regional estimates, Bulletin of the World Health Organization 77(10) (1999) 801–807.
E.H. Kaplan, What are the risks of risky sex – modeling the AIDS epidemic, Operations Research 37(2) (1989) 198–209.
E.H. Kaplan, Economic analysis of needle exchange, AIDS 9(10) (1995) 1113–1119.
E.H. Kaplan, Economic evaluation and HIV prevention community planning: a policy analyst's perspective, in: Handbook of HIV Prevention Policy Analysis, ed. D.R. Holtgrave (Plenum, New York, NY, 1998).
E.H. Kaplan, Israel's ban on use of Ethiopians’ blood: how many infectious donations were prevented?, Lancet 351(9109) (1998) 1127–1128.
E.H. Kaplan, Implicit valuation of a blood-exclusion decision, Medical Decision Making 19(2) (1999) 207–213.
E.H. Kaplan and P.R. Abramson, So what if the program ain't perfect – a mathematical model of AIDS education, Evaluation Review 13(2) (1989) 107–122.
E.H. Kaplan and M.L. Brandeau, AIDS policy modeling by example, AIDS 8(Supplement 1) (1994) S333–S340.
E.H. Kaplan and E. O'Keefe, Let the needles do the talking! Evaluating the New Haven needle exchange, Interfaces 23(1) (1993) 7–26.
E.H. Kaplan and H. Pollack, Allocating HIV prevention resources, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 32(4) (1998) 257–263.
M. Katz and J. Gerberding, Postexposure treatment of HIV, New England Journal of Medicine 337(7) (1997) 501.
D.A. Kault, Modelling AIDS reduction strategies, International Journal of Epidemiology 24(1) (1995) 188–197.
J.A. Kelly, Behavior changes disease prevention: MCW research shows effectiveness of HIV/AIDS risk reduction interventions, Wisconsin Medical Journal 99(1) (2000) 41–43, 47.
M. Kretzschmar and L.G. Wiessing, Modeling the spread of HIV in social networks of injecting drug users, AIDS 12(7) (1998) 801–811.
S.J. La Croix and G. Russo, A cost-benefit analysis of voluntary routine HIV-antibody testing for hospital patients, Social Science and Medicine 42(9) (1996) 1259–1272.
L. Lacey and M.J. Gill, Lamivudine reduces healthcare resource use when added to zidovudine-containing regimens in patients with HIV infection, Pharmacoeconomics15(Supplement 1) (1999) S13–S22.
L. Lacey, J. Mauskopf, R. Lindrooth, S. Pham, M. Saag and W. Sawyer, A prospective cost-consequence analysis of adding lamivudine to zidovudine-containing antiretroviral treatment regimens for HIV infection in the US, Pharmacoeconomics 15(Supplement 1) (1999) S23–S37.
L. Lacey, M. Youle, P. Trueman, S. Staszewski, M. Schrappe and M. Behrens, A prospective evaluation of the cost effectiveness of adding lamivudine to zidovudine-containing antiretroviral treatment regimens in HIV infection – European perspective, Pharmacoeconomics 15(Supplement 1) (1999) S39–S53.
J.M. Lange, Changing therapy in HIV, AIDS 10(Supplement 1) (1996) S27–S30.
G.T. Lansdell, AIDS, the law and civil liberties, Medical Journal of Australia 154(1) (1991) 61–67.
C. Le Gales and J.P. Moatti, Cost-effectiveness of HIV screening of pregnant women in hospitals of the Paris area. The Paris-Tours study group of antenatal transmission of HIV, Group “9 maternites”, European Journal of Obstetrics, Gynecology, and Reproductive Biology 37(1) (1990) 25–33.
M.L. Lindegren, R.H. Byers, Jr., P. Thomas, S.F. Davis, B. Caldwell, M. Rogers, M. Gwinn, J.W. Ward and P.L. Fleming, Trends in perinatal transmission of HIV/AIDS in the United States, Journal of the American Medical Association 282(6) (1999) 531–538.
E. Litvak, J.E. Siegel, S.G. Pauker, M. Lallemant, H.V. Fineberg and M.C. Weinstein, Whose blood is safer? The effect of the stage of the epidemic on screening for HIV, Medical Decision Making 17(4) (1997) 455–463.
B.R. Luce, W.G. Manning, J.E. Siegel and J. Lipscomb, Estimating costs in cost-effectiveness analysis, in: Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine, eds. M.R. Gold, J.E. Siegel, L.B. Russell and M.C. Weinstein (Oxford University Press, New York, NY, 1996).
P.G. Lurie and A.L. Reingold, The public health impact of needle exchange programs in the United States and abroad, Institute for Health Policy Studies, University of California, San Francisco (1993).
S.T. Maidlow and H. Berman, The economics of heroin treatment, American Journal of Public Health 62(10) (1972) 1397–1406.
W.G. Manning, D.G. Fryback and M.C. Weinstein, Reflecting uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis, in: Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine, eds. M.R. Gold, J.E. Siegel, L.B. Russell and M.C. Weinstein (Oxford University Press, New York, NY, 1996).
G. Mansergh, A.C. Haddix, R.W. Steketee, P.I. Nieburg, D.J. Hu, R.J. Simonds and M. Rogers, Cost-effectiveness of short-course zidovudine to prevent perinatal HIV type 1 infection in a sub-Saharan African developing country setting, Journal of the American Medical Association 276(2) (1996) 139–145.
E. Marseille, J.G. Kahn, F. Mmiro, L. Guay, P. Musoke, M.G. Fowler and J.B. Jackson, Cost effectiveness of single-dose nevirapine regimen for mothers and babies to decrease vertical HIV-1 transmission in sub-Saharan Africa, Lancet 354(9181) (1999) 803–809.
E. Marseille, J.G. Kahn and J. Saba, Cost-effectiveness of antiviral drug therapy to reduce mother-to-child HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa, AIDS 12(8) (1998) 939–948.
E. Marseille, J.G. Kahn and J. Saba, The cost-effectiveness of female condoms to prevent pregnancy, HIV, and STD transmission in Southern Africa, Institute for Health Policy Studies, University of California, San Francisco (2000).
J. Martin and S. Coyle, Measurement of outcomes, in: Evaluating AIDS Prevention Programs, eds. S. Coyle, R. Boruch and C. Turner (National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1991).
J.A. Mauskopf, J.E. Paul, D.S. Wichman, A.D. White and H.H. Tilson, Economic impact of treatment of HIV-positive pregnant women and their newborns with zidovudine. Implications for HIV screening, Journal of the American Medical Association 276(2) (1996) 132–138.
R.M. May and R.M. Anderson, The transmission dynamics of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences 321(1207) (1988) 565–607.
B.D. McCarthy, J.B. Wong, A. Munoz and F.A. Sonnenberg, Who should be screened for HIV infection? A cost-effectiveness analysis, Archives of Internal Medicine 153(9) (1993) 1107–1116.
N.L. McKay and K.M. Phillips, An economic evaluation of mandatory premarital testing for HIV, Inquiry 28(3) (1991) 236–248.
N. Meda, L. Gautier-Charpentier, R.B. Soudre, H. Dahourou, R. Ouedraogo-Traore, A. Ouangre, A. Bambara, A. Kpozehouen, H. Sanou, D. Valea, F. Ky, M. Cartoux, F. Barin and P. Van de Perre, Serological diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus in Burkina Faso: reliable, practical strategies using less expensive commercial test kits, Bulletin of theWorld Health Organization 77(9) (1999) 731–739.
J. Misson, W. Clark and M.J. Kendall, Therapeutic advances: protease inhibitors for the treatment of HIV-1 infection, Journal of Clinical Pharmacy and Therapeutics 22(2) (1997) 109–117.
M. Morris and M. Kretzschmar, Concurrent partnerships and the spread of HIV, AIDS 11(5) (1997) 641–648.
S. Moses, F.A. Plummer, E.N. Ngugi, N.J. Nagelkerke, A.O. Anzala and J.O. Ndinya-Achola, Controlling HIV in Africa: effectiveness and cost of an intervention in a high-frequency STD transmitter core group, AIDS 5(4) (1991) 407–411.
Y. Mouton, S. Alfandari, M. Valette, F. Cartier, P. Dellamonica, G. Humbert, J.M. Lang, P. Massip, D. Mechali, P. Leclercq, J. Modai and H. Portier, Federation National des Centres de Lutte contre le SIDA, Impact of protease inhibitors on AIDS-defining events and hospitalizations in 10 French AIDS reference centres, AIDS 11(12) (1997) F101–F105.
O. Mueller, T. Corrah, E. Katabira, F. Plummer and D. Mabey, Antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa, Lancet 351(9095) (1998) 68.
E.R. Myers, J.W. Thompson and K. Simpson, Cost-effectiveness of mandatory compared with voluntary screening for human immunodeficiency virus in pregnancy, Obstetrics and Gynecology 91(2) (1998) 174–181.
S. Nahmias and C.D. Feinstein, Screening strategies to inhibit the spread of AIDS, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 24(4) (1990) 249–260.
M. Navarro, Studies (and politics) guided switch on needles, New York Times, November 12 (1991) 1.
A. Neaigus, S.R. Friedman, R. Curtis, D.C. Des Jarlais, R.T. Furst, B. Jose, P. Mota, B. Stepherson, M. Sufian, T. Ward et al., The relevance of drug injectors’ social and risk networks for understanding and preventing HIV infection, Social Science and Medicine 38(1) (1994) 67–78.
A. Neaigus, S.R. Friedman, B. Jose, M.F. Goldstein, R. Curtis, G. Ildefonso and D.C. Des Jarlais, High-risk personal networks and syringe sharing as risk factors for HIV infection among new drug injectors, Journal of AIDS and Human Retrovirology 11(5) (1996) 499–509.
J. Normand, D. Vlahov and L. Moses, Preventing HIV Transmission: The Role of Sterile Needles and Bleach (National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1995).
D.K. Owens, Economic evaluation of HIV screening, in: Handbook of HIV Prevention Policy Analysis, ed. D.R. Holtgrave (Plenum, New York, NY, 1998).
D.K. Owens, Interpretation of cost-effectiveness analyses, Journal of General Internal Medicine 13 (1998) 716–717.
D.K. Owens, M.L. Brandeau and C.H. Sox, Effect of relapse to highrisk behavior on the costs and benefits of a program to screen women for human immunodeficiency virus, Interfaces 28(3) (1998) 52–74.
D.K. Owens, D.M. Edwards and R.D. Shachter, Population effects of preventive and therapeutic HIV vaccines in early-and late-stage epidemics, AIDS 12(9) (1998) 1057–1066.
D.K. Owens, R.A. Harris, P.M. Scott and R.F. Nease, Jr., Screening surgeons for HIV infection. A cost-effectiveness analysis, Annals of Internal Medicine 122(9) (1995) 641–652.
D.K. Owens and R.F. Nease, Jr., Occupational exposure to human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis B virus: a comparative analysis of risk, American Journal of Medicine 92(5) (1992) 503–512.
D.K. Owens, R.F. Nease, Jr. and R.A. Harris, Cost-effectiveness of HIV screening in acute care settings, Archives of Internal Medicine 156(4) (1996) 394–404.
N. Padian, L. Marquis, D.P. Francis, R.E. Anderson, G.W. Rutherford, P.M. O'Malley and W. Winkelstein, Jr., Male-to-female transmission of human immunodeficiency virus, Journal of the American Medical Association 258(6) (1987) 788–790.
N.S. Padian, S.C. Shiboski and N.P. Jewell, Female-to-male transmission of human immunodeficiency virus, Journal of the American Medical Association 266(12) (1991) 1664–1667.
A.D. Paltiel, Five minutes with the governor, Medical Decision Making 20(2) (2000) 239–242.
A.D. Paltiel and E.H. Kaplan, Modeling zidovudine therapy: a costeffectiveness analysis, Journal of AIDS 4(8) (1991) 795–804.
A.D. Paltiel and E.H. Kaplan, The epidemiologic and economic consequences of AIDS clinical-trials, Journal of AIDS and Human Retrovirology 6(2) (1993) 179–190.
A.D. Paltiel, J.A. Scharfstein, G.R. Seage, 3rd, E. Losina, S.J. Goldie, M.C. Weinstein, D.E. Craven and K.A. Freedberg, A Monte Carlo simulation of advanced HIV disease: application to prevention of CMV infection, Medical Decision Making 18(Supplement 2) (1998) S93–S105.
D.A. Paltiel, Timing is of the essence: matching AIDS policy to the epidemic life cycle, in: Modeling the AIDS Epidemic: Planning, Policy and Prediction, eds. E. Kaplan and M.L. Brandeau (Raven Press, New York, NY, 1994).
E.J. Perez-Stable, Cuba's response to the HIV epidemic, American Journal of Public Health 81(5) (1991) 563–567.
J.C. Petricciani and J.S. Epstein, The effects of the AIDS epidemic on the safety of the nation's blood supply, Public Health Reports 103(3) (1988) 236–241.
P. Pezzotti, P.A. Napoli, S. Acciai, S. Boros, R. Urciuoli, V. Lazzeri and G. Rezza, Increasing survival time after AIDS in Italy: the role of new combination antiretroviral therapies. Tuscany AIDS Study Group, AIDS 13(2) (1999) 249–255.
K.A. Phillips, A. Haddix and D.R. Holtgrave, An overview of economic evaluation methodologies and selected issues in methods standardization, in: Handbook of HIV Prevention Policy Analysis, ed. D.R. Holtgrave (Plenum, New York, NY, 1998).
K.A. Phillips and D.R. Holtgrave, Using cost-effectiveness/costbenefit analysis to allocate health resources: a level playing field for prevention?, American Journal of Preventive Medicine 13(1) (1997) 18–25.
K.A. Phillips, R.A. Lowe, J.G. Kahn, P. Lurie, A.L. Avins and D. Ciccarone, The cost-effectiveness of HIV testing of physicians and dentists in the United States, Journal of the American Medical Association 271(11) (1994) 851–858.
S.D. Pinkerton, D.R. Holtgrave and F.R. Bloom, Cost-effectiveness of post-exposure prophylaxis following sexual exposure to HIV, AIDS 12(9) (1998) 1067–1078.
T.C. Porco and S.M. Blower, Designing HIV vaccination policies: subtypes and cross-immunity, Interfaces 28(3) (1998) 167–190.
M.J. Postma, E.J. Beck, S. Mandalia, L. Sherr, M.D. Walters, H. Houweling and J.C. Jager, Universal HIV screening of pregnant women in England: cost effectiveness analysis, British Medical Journal 318(7199) (1999) 1656–1660.
S.D. Ramsey and M.D. Nettleman, Cost-effectiveness of prophylactic AZT following needlestick injury in health care workers, Medical Decision Making 12(2) (1992) 142–148.
M.S. Rauner, Strategisches Management von Praeventivprogrammen, Ein umfassendes Entscheidungsunterstuetzungssystem fuer die AIDS-Epidemie (Peter Lang, Frankfurt am Main, 1999).
M.S. Rauner, Managing the AIDS epidemic in Vienna, Austria: prevention strategies for the 21st century, in: Information, Management and Planning of Health Services, Proceedings of the 25th Meeting of the European Working Group on Operational Research Applied to Health Services, Valmiera, Latvia, 18–23 July 1999, ed. E. Mikitis (Health Statistics and Medical Technology Agency, Riga, Latvia, 2000).
M.S. Rauner, Using simulation to analyze the effects of prevention programs on the HIV epidemic in Vienna, Austria, in: Proceedings of the International Conference on Health Sciences Simulation, 2000 Western MultiConference, San Diego, CA), eds. J.G. Anderson and M. Katzper (Society for Computer Simulation International, San Diego, CA, 2000).
A. Richter, M.L. Brandeau and D.K. Owens, An analysis of optimal resource allocation for prevention of infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in injection drug users and non-users, Medical Decision Making 19(2) (1999) 167–179.
A. Richter, M.L. Brandeau and D.W. Owens, Policy analysis of preventive HIV interventions targeted to adolescents: an application of Stella, in: Simulation in the Medical Sciences Conference: Proceedings of the 1996 Western Multiconference, eds. J.G. Anderson and M. Katzper (Society for Computer Simulation International, San Diego, CA, 1996).
W. Ried, QALYs versus HYEs-what's right and what's wrong. A review of the controversy, Journal of Health Economics 17(5) (1998) 607–625.
E. Rizakou, J. Rosenhead and K. Reddington, AIDS plan: a decision support model for planning the provision of HIV/AIDS-related services, Interfaces 21(3) (1991) 117–129.
R.A. Roffman, R.S. Stephen, L. Curtin, J.R. Gordon, J.N. Craver, M. Stern, B. Beadnell and L. Downey, Relapse prevention as an interventive model for HIV risk reduction in gay and bisexual men, AIDS Education and Prevention 10(1) (1998) 1–18.
C. Rossi, Estimating the prevalence of injecting drug users on the basis of Markov models of the HIV/AIDS epidemic: applications to Italian data, Health Care Management Science 2(3) (1999) 173–179.
C. Rossi and G. Schinaia, The mover-stayer model for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in action, Interfaces 28(3) (1998) 127–143.
J.T. Rowley and R.M. Anderson, Modeling the impact and costeffectiveness of HIV prevention efforts, AIDS 8(4) (1994) 539–548.
J.T. Rowley, R.M. Anderson and T.W. Ng, Reducing the spread of HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa: some demographic and economic implications, AIDS 4(1) (1990) 47–56.
R.A. Royce, A. Seña, W. Cates and M.S. Cohen, Sexual transmission of HIV, New England Journal of Medicine 336(15) (1997) 1072–1078.
L.B. Russell, M.R. Gold, J.E. Siegel, N. Daniels and M.C. Weinstein, The role of cost-effectiveness analysis in health and medicine. Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine, Journal of the American Medical Association 276(14) (1996) 1172–1177.
A.M. Salzberg and D. Macrae, Policies for curbing the HIV epidemic in the United-States: implications of a simulation model, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 27(3) (1993) 153–169.
J.C. Scanlon, Proceedings: Cost savings/benefit analysis of drug abuse treatment, American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse 3(1) (1976) 95–101.
J.A. Scharfstein, A.D. Paltiel and K.A. Freedberg, The costeffectiveness of fluconazole prophylaxis against primary systemic fungal infections in AIDS patients, Medical Decision Making 17(4) (1997) 373–381.
S.J. Schwager, C. Castillo-Chavez and H.W. Hethcote, Statistical and mathematical approaches in HIV/AIDS modeling: a review, in: Mathematical and Statistical Approaches to AIDS Epidemiology, ed. C. Castillo-Chavez (Springer, Berlin, 1989).
J.S. Schwartz, B.P. Kinosian, W.P. Pierskalla and H. Lee, Strategies for screening blood for human immunodeficiency virus antibody. Use of a decision support system, Journal of the American Medical Association 264(13) (1990) 1704–1710.
J.E. Siegel, M.C. Weinstein and H.V. Fineberg, Bleach programs for preventing AIDS among IV drug users: modeling the impact of HIV prevalence, American Journal of Public Health 81(10) (1991) 1273–1279.
J.E. Siegel, M.C. Weinstein, L.B. Russell and M.R. Gold, Recommendations for reporting cost-effectiveness analyses. Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine, Journal of the American Medical Association 276(16) (1996) 1339–1341.
L. Simonsen, A. Kane, J. Lloyd, M. Zaffran and M. Kane, Unsafe injections in the developing world and transmission of bloodborne pathogens: a review, Bulletin of the World Health Organization 77(10) (1999) 789–800.
D. Sontag, HIV testing for newborns debated anew, The New York Times (10 February 1997) A1, B8.
R. Stall, M. Ekstrand, L. Pollack, L. McKusick and T.J. Coates, Relapse from safer sex: the next challenge for AIDS prevention efforts, Journal of AIDS 3(12) (1990) 1181–1187.
E. Stokey and R. Zeckhauser, A Primer for Policy Analysis (Norton, New York, NY, 1978).
T. Suh, W. Mandell, C. Latkin and J. Kim, Social network characteristics and injecting HIV-risk behaviors among street injection drug users, Drug and Alcohol Dependence 47(2) (1997) 137–143.
G. Tao and G. Remafedi, Economic evaluation of an HIV prevention intervention for gay and bisexual male adolescents, Journal of AIDS and Human Retrovirology 17(1) (1998) 83–90.
T.O. Tengs, M.E. Adams, J.S. Pliskin, D.G. Safran, J.E. Siegel, M.C. Weinstein and J.D. Graham, Five-hundred life-saving interventions and their cost-effectiveness, Risk Analysis 15(3) (1995) 369–390.
United States Public Health Service and Infectious Diseases Society of America, 1999 USPHS/IDSA guidelines for the prevention of opportunistic infections in persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 48(RR-10) (1999) 1–59, 61–56.
C.P.B. Van der Ploeg, C. Van Vliet, S.J. De Vlas, J.O. Ndinya-Achola, L. Fransen, G.J. Van Oortmarssen and J.D.F. Habbema, STDSIM: a microsimulation model for decision support in STD control, Interfaces 28(3) (1998) 84–100.
P.L. Vernazza, J.J. Eron, S.A. Fiscus and M.S. Cohen, Sexual transmission of HIV: infectiousness and prevention, AIDS 13(2) (1999) 155–166.
P.L. Vernazza, B.L. Gilliam, J. Dyer, S.A. Fiscus, J.J. Eron, A.C. Frank and M.S. Cohen, Quantification of HIV in semen: correlation with antiviral treatment and immune status, AIDS 11(8) (1997) 987–993.
P.L. Vernazza, L. Troiani, M.J. Flepp, R.W. Cone, J. Schock, F. Roth, K. Boggian, M.S. Cohen, S.A. Fiscus and J.J. Eron, Potent antiretroviral treatment of HIV-infection results in suppression of the seminal shedding of HIV. The Swiss HIV Cohort Study, AIDS 14(2) (2000) 117–121.
P. Villari, G. Fattore, J.E. Siegel, A.D. Paltiel and M.C. Weinstein, Economic evaluation of HIV testing among intravenous drug users. An analytic framework and its application to Italy, International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care 12(2) (1996) 336–357.
R. Voelker, Poor nations ravaged by AIDS need the right resources now, Journal of the American Medical Association 282(21) (1999) 1992–1994.
L.M. Wein, S.A. Zenios and M.A. Nowak, Dynamic multidrug therapies for HIV: a control theoretic approach, Journal of Theoretical Biology 185(1) (1997) 15–29.
L.S. Weinhardt, M.P. Carey, B.T. Johnson and N.L. Bickham, Effects of HIV counseling and testing on sexual risk behavior: a metaanalytic review of published research, 1985-1997, American Journal of Public Health 89(9) (1999) 1397–1405.
M.C. Weinstein, J.E. Siegel, M.R. Gold, M.S. Kamlet and L.B. Russell, Recommendations of the Panel on Cost-effectiveness in Health and Medicine, Journal of the American Medical Association 276(15) (1996) 1253–1258.
D. Wilkinson, K. Floyd and C.F. Gilks, Antiretroviral drugs as a public health intervention for pregnant HIV-infected women in rural South Africa: an issue of cost-effectiveness and capacity, AIDS 12(13) (1998) 1675–1682.
S. Yerly, L. Kaiser, E. Race, J.P. Bru, F. Clavel and L. Perrin, Transmission of antiretroviral-drug-resistant HIV-1 variants, Lancet 354(9180) (1999) 729–733.
G.S. Zaric, P.G. Barnett and M.L. Brandeau, HIV transmission and the cost effectiveness of methadone maintenance, American Journal of Public Health 90(7) (2000) 1100–1111.
G.S. Zaric, A.M. Bayoumi, M.L. Brandeau and D.K. Owens, The effects of protease inhibitors on the spread of HIV and the development of drug-resistant HIV strains: a simulation study, Simulation 71(4) (1998) 262–275.
G.S. Zaric, A.M. Bayoumi, M.L. Brandeau and D.K. Owens, The cost effectiveness of voluntary prenatal and routine newborn HIV screening in the United States, Journal of AIDS and Human Retrovirology 25(5) (2000) 403–416.
G.S. Zaric and M.L. Brandeau, Resource allocation for epidemic control over short time horizons, Mathematical Biosciences 171(1) (2000) 33–38.
G.S. Zaric, M.L. Brandeau and P.G. Barnett, Methadone maintenance and HIV prevention: a cost-effectiveness analysis, Management Science 46(8) (2000) 1013–1031.
G.S. Zaric, M.L. Brandeau, A.M. Bayoumi and D.K. Owens, Simulating the effects of protease inhibitors on the HIV epidemic: treatment compliance, and drug resistance, in: Proceedings of the 1998 Medical Sciences Simulation Conference, eds. J.G. Anderson and M. Katzper (Society for Computer Simulation International, San Diego, CA, 1998).
L. Zhang, B. Ramratnam, K. Tenner-Racz, Y. He, M. Vesanen, S. Lewin, A. Talal, P. Racz, A.S. Perelson, B.T. Korber, M. Markowitz and D.D. Ho, Quantifying residual HIV-1 replication in patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy, New England Journal of Medicine 340(21) (1999) 1605–1613.
H. Zowall, L. Coupal, R.D. Fraser, N. Gilmore, A. Deutsch and S.A. Grover, Economic impact of HIV infection and coronary heart disease in immigrants to Canada, Canadian Medical Association Journal 147(8) (1992) 1163–1172.
H. Zowall, R.D. Fraser, N. Gilmore, A. Deutsch and S. Grover, HIV antibody screening among immigrants: a cost-benefit analysis, Canadian Medical Association Journal 143(2) (1990) 101–107.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Rauner, M.S., Brandeau, M.L. AIDS Policy Modeling for the 21st Century: An Overview of Key Issues. Health Care Management Science 4, 165–180 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011418614557
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011418614557