A New Statistical Method for Dose-Finding Based on Efficacy and Toxicity in Early Phase Clinical Trials

Abstract

Most statistical methods for dose-finding in phase I clinical trials determine a maximum tolerable dose based on toxicity while ignoring efficacy. Most phase II designs assume that an acceptable dose has been determined and aim to estimate treatment efficacy, possibly with early stopping rules for safety monitoring. The purpose of this paper is to describe a new statistical strategy for dose-finding in single-arm clinical trials where patient outcome is characterized in terms of both response and toxicity. The strategy, which may be considered a phase I/II hybrid, was first proposed by Thall and Russell [1] and subsequently modified by Thall [2]. The underlying mathematical model expresses the probabilities of response and toxicity as interdependent functions of dose. The method is based on fixed standards for the minimum probability of response and the maximum probability of toxicity appropriate for the particular trial. The best acceptable dose is chosen for each successive patient cohort adaptively, based on the fixed standards and the dose-outcome data from patients treated previously in the trial. The scientific goals are to select one best acceptable dose for future patients and to estimate the response and toxicity probabilities at that dose, or to stop the trial early if it becomes sufficiently unlikely that any dose is both safe and efficacious. An application of the method to a trial of donor lymphocyte infusion as salvage therapy for chemo-refractory AML/MDS patients is described. To illustrate the method's flexibility and potential breadth of application, two additional examples are provided, including a hypothetical trial in which a 5% response rate is of interest.