Abstract
To explore how uncertain climate events might affect investment decisions that need to be made in the near future, this paper examines (1) the relative magnitude of the uncertainties arising from climate change on engineering design in water resources planning and (2) a restricted set of water resource planning techniques that deal with the repeated choice of investment decisions over time. The classical capacity-expansion model of operations research is exploited to show the relative impacts upon engineering design choices for variations in future demand attributable to changes in the climate or other factors and the possible shortfall of supply due to climate change. The type of engineering decisions considered in the paper are sequential, enabling adjustments to revealed uncertainty in subsequent decisions. The range of possible impacts analyzed in the paper lead to similar engineering design decisions. This result means that engineers must be on their guard with respect to under-design or over-design of systems with and without the threat of climate change, but that the sequential nature of the decision-making does not call for drastic action in the early time periods.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Dandy, G.C., McBean, E.A. and Hutchinson, B.G.: 1984, "A Model for Constrained Optimum Water Pricing and Capacity Expansion," Water Resources Research 20, 5.
Gysi, M. and Loucks, D.P.: 1971, "Some Long-run Effects of Water-Pricing Policies," Water Resources Research 7:6.
Hirshleifer, J., DeHaven, J.C., and Milliman, J.W.: 1960. Water Supply Economics, Technology and Policy. University of Chicago Press.
Lauria, D.T., Schlenger, D.L. and Wentworth, R.W.: 1977, "Models for Capacity Planning of Water Systems," Journal of the Environmental Engineering Division, ASCE.
Lettenmaier, D. P. et al.: 1994(a), "Water Management Implications of Global Warming: 1. The Tacoma Water Supply System," Report to the Institute for Water Resources, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Casey Building, Fort Belovir, VA 22060, by DPL and Associates, Seattle, Washington, December 1.
Lettenmaier, D.P. et al.: 1994(b), "Water Management Implications of Global Warming: 2. The Boston Water Supply System," Report to the Institute for Water Resources, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Casey Building, Fort Belvoir, VA 22060, by DPL and Associates, Seattle, Washington, December 19.
Lettenmaier, D. P. et al.: 1994(c), "Water Management Implications of Global Warming: 3. The Savannah River Water Supply System," Report to the Institute for Water Resources, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Casey Building, Fort Belvoir, VA 22060, by DPL and Associates, Seattle, Washington, December 19.
Manne, A.S.: 1961, "Capacity Expansion and Probabilistic Growth," Econometrica 29, 4.
Manne, A.S.: 1967, Investments for Capacity Expansion: Size, Location, and time-Phasing, MIT Press.
Moore, N.Y. and Yeh, W.G.: 1980, "Economic Model for Reservoir Planning," Journal of the Water Resources Planning and Management Division, American Society of Civil Engineering.
Muhich, A. J.: 1966, Capacity Expansion of Water Treatment Facilities. PhD Thesis, Harvard University.
Riordan, C.: 1971, "general Multistage Marginal Cost Dynamic Programming Model for the Optimization of a Class of Investment-Pricing Decisions," Water Resources Research 7, 2.
Shaw, D.: 1971, “Problems with Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change: A Look at Water Resources,” Water Resources Research 32,7, pp. 2251–2257, July 1996.
Thomas, H.A., Jr.: "Sensitivity Analysis of Design Parameters of Water Resource Systems," Harvard Water Program, Mimeo, 25 pp.
Tung, C.P., and Haith, D.A.: 1995, "Global-Warming Effects on New York Stream flows," Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, American Society of Civil Engineers, 121, 2.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Rogers, P. Engineering Design and Uncertainties Related to Climate Change. Climatic Change 37, 229–242 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005312318548
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005312318548