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Regeneration in Gap Models: Priority Issues for Studying Forest Responses to Climate Change

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Abstract

Recruitment algorithms in forest gap models are examined withparticular regard to their suitability for simulating forestecosystem responses to a changing climate. The traditional formulation of recruitment is found limiting in three areas. First, the aggregation of different regeneration stages (seedproduction, dispersal, storage, germination and seedling establishment) is likely to result in less accurate predictionsof responses as compared to treating each stage separately. Second, the related assumptions that seeds of all species are uniformly available and that environmental conditions arehomogeneous, are likely to cause overestimates of future speciesdiversity and forest migration rates. Third, interactions between herbivores (ungulates and insect pests) and forest vegetation are a big unknown with potentially serious impactsin many regions. Possible strategies for developing better gapmodel representations for the climate-sensitive aspects of eachof these key areas are discussed. A working example of a relatively new model that addresses some of these limitations is also presented for each case. We conclude that better modelsof regeneration processes are desirable for predicting effectsof climate change, but that it is presently impossible to determine what improvements can be expected without carrying outrigorous tests for each new formulation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Edmonton, Alberta, T6H 3S5, Canada

    David T. Price

  2. Department of Landscape, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, CH-8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

    Niklaus E. Zimmermann

  3. ALTERRA – Green World Research, NL-6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Peter J. van der Meer & Irma T. M. Jorritsma

  4. Institute of Silviculture, University of Agricultural Sciences, A-1190, Vienna, Austria

    Manfred J. Lexer

  5. Ecologie des Populations et Communautés, Université Paris-Sud XI, F-91405, Orsay CEDEX, France

    Paul Leadley

  6. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg, D-4412, Potsdam, Germany

    Jörg Schaber & Petra Lasch

  7. Global Environmental Change Program, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22904–4123, USA

    Donald F. Clark

  8. U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, 920 Main Campus Drive, Venture Center II, Raleigh, NC, 27606, USA

    Steve McNulty

  9. Department of Life Sciences, Arizona State University –, West Campus, Phoenix, AZ, 85069-7100, USA

    Jianguo Wu

  10. Climate Impacts Group, Department of Ecology/Plant Ecology, University of Lund, Ekologihuset, S-22362, Lund, Sweden

    Benjamin Smith

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Price, D.T., Zimmermann, N.E., van der Meer, P.J. et al. Regeneration in Gap Models: Priority Issues for Studying Forest Responses to Climate Change. Climatic Change 51, 475–508 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1012579107129

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