Abstract
We present models predicting the potential distribution of a threatened ant species, Formica exsecta Nyl., in the Swiss National Park (SNP). Data to fit the models have been collected according to a random-stratified design with an equal number of replicates per stratum. The basic aim of such a sampling strategy is to allow the formal testing of biological hypotheses about those factors most likely to account for the distribution of the modeled species. The stratifying factors used in this study were: vegetation, slope angle and slope aspect, the latter two being used as surrogates of solar radiation, considered one of the basic requirements of F. exsecta. Results show that, although the basic stratifying predictors account for more than 50% of the deviance, the incorporation of additional non-spatially explicit predictors into the model, as measured in the field, allows for an increased model performance (up to nearly 75%). However, this was not corroborated by permutation tests. Implementation on a national scale was made for one model only, due to the difficulty of obtaining similar predictors on this scale. The resulting map on the national scale suggests that the species might once have had a broader distribution in Switzerland. Reasons for its particular abundance within the SNP might possibly be related to habitat fragmentation and vegetation transformation outside the SNP boundaries.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Agosti D. and Cherix D. 1994. Liste rouge des fourmis menacées de Suisse. In: Office fédéral de l'environnement, des forêts et du paysage (OFEFP) (eds). Listes rouges des espèces menacées de Suisse, pp. 45–47. Berne, Switzerland.
Agosti D. 1989. Versuch einer phylogenetischen Wertung der Merkmale der Formicini (Hymenoptera, Formicidae), Revision der Formica exsecta-Gruppe und Liste der Formicidae Europas. Ph.D. Thesis, No 8774, University of Zürich, Switzerland.
Austin M.P. 2002. Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modeling. Ecological Modelling 157: 101–118.
Austin M.P. and Heyligers P.C. 1989. Vegetation survey design for conservation: gradsect sampling of forests in North-east New South Wales. Biological Conservation 50: 13–32.
Campell E. and Trepp W. 1968. Vegetationskarte des Schweizerischen Nationalparks, Beschreibung der Pflanzengesellschaften. Ergebnisse der wissenschaftlischen Untersuchungen im schweizerischen Nationalpark 58: 15–42.
Cherix D. 1994. Études à long terme au PNS: l'exemple des fourmis. Cratschla 2: 39–44.
Dlusskii G.M. 1967. Ants of the genus Formica. Izdatel'stvo ‘Nauka', Moscow.
Duelli P. 1994. Listes rouges des espèces animales menacées de Suisse. Office fédéral de l'environnement, des forêts et du paysage (OFEFP), Berne, Switzerland.
Elith J. and Burgman M.A. 2002. Mapping epistemic uncertainties and vague concepts in predictions of species distribution. Ecological Modelling 157: 311–327.
Franklin J. 1995. Predictive vegetation mapping: geographical modeling of biospatial patterns in relation to environmental gradients. Progress in Physical Geography 19: 474–499.
Goedickemeier I., Wildi O. and Kienast F. 1997. Sampling for vegetation survey: some properties of a GIS-based stratification compared to other statistical sampling methods. Coenoses 12: 43–50.
Grenfeld E.K. 1939. Ekologiva muravev zapovednika “Les na Vorskle” i ergo okrestnostei [Ecology of ants in the “Les na Vorskle” reserve and its vicinity]. Uch. Zap. LGU 28: 207.
Guisan A. and Zimmermann N.E. 2000. Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling 135(2–3): 147–186.
Guisan A., Edwards T.C. and Hastie T. 2002. Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distribution: setting the scene. Ecological Modelling 157: 89–100.
Guisan A., Theurillat J.-P. and Kienast F. 1998. Predicting the potential distribution of plant species in an alpine environment. Journal of Vegetation Science 9: 65–74.
Guisan A., Weiss S.B. and Weiss A.D. 1999. GLM versus CCA spatial modeling of plant species. Plant Ecology 143: 107–122.
Hegg O., Béguin C. and Zoller H. 1993. Atlas de la vegetation à protéger en Suisse. Office fédéral de l'environnement, des forêts et du paysage (OFEFP) (eds), Berne, Switzerland.
Hirzel A. and Guisan A. 2002. Which is the optimal sampling strategy for habitat suitability modeling? Ecological Modelling 157: 329–339.
Jaberg C. and Guisan A. 2001. Modelling the distribution of bats in relation to landscape structure in a temperate mountain environment. Journal of Applied Ecology 38: 1169–1181.
Kutter H. 1956. Beiträge zur Biologie palearktischer Coptoformica (Hym. Form.). Mitteilungen der Schweizerischen Entomologischen Gesellschaft 29(1): 1–18.
Kutter H. 1975. Die Ameisen (Hym:Formicidae) des Schweizerischen NationalParkes und seiner Umgebung. Résultas des recherches scientifiques au Parc National Suisse 14: 398–414.
Kutter H. 1977. Formicidae-Hymenoptera, Insecta Helvetica 6. Schweizerische Entomologische Gesellschaft, Zürich, Switzerland.
Lehmann A., Leathwick J.R. and Overton J.McC. 2002. Assessing New Zealand fern diversity from spatial predictions of species assemblages. Biodiversity and Conservation 11: 2217–2238 (this issue).
Maggini R. 1999. Etude de la distribution de Formica exsecta Nyl. (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) au Parc National Suisse à l'aide d'un Système d'Information Géographique (SIG). Master Thesis, University of Lausanne, Switzerland.
Manly B.F.J. 1997. Randomization, Bootstrap and Monte Carlo Methodology Methods in Biology. Second edition. Chapman & Hall, New York.
McCullagh P. and Nelder J.A. 1989. Generalized Linear Models. Chapman & Hall, London.
Müller G. 1923. Le formiche della Venezia Giulia e della Dalmazia. Bollettino della Società Adriatica di Scienze Naturali 28: 11–180.
Odland A. and Birks H.J.B. 1999. The altitudinal gradient of vascular plant richness in Aurland, western Norway. Ecography 22: 548–566.
Pisarski B. 1982a. Caractéristiques de Formica (Coptoformica) exsecta Nylander 1846. In: Polish Academy of Sciences (eds). Memorabilia Zoologica 38: 23–30.
Pisarski B. 1982b. Fondation et développement des nouvelles sociétés de Formica (Coptoformica) exsecta Nyl. In: Polish Academy of Sciences (eds). Memorabilia Zoologica 38: 53–65.
Pisarski B. 1982c. Bionomie de Formica (Coptoformica) exsecta Nyl. In: Polish Academy of Sciences (eds). Memorabilia Zoologica 38: 31–51.
Scott J.M., Heglund P.J., Haufler J.B., Morrison M., Raphael M.G., Wall W.B. and Samson F. (eds) 2002. Predicting Species Occurrences: Issues of Accuracy and Scale. Island Press, Covelo, California.
Seifert B. 2000. A taxonomic revision of the ant subgenus Coptoformica Mueller, 1923 (Hymenoptera, Formicidae). Zoosystema 22: 517–568.
van der Maarel E. 1976. On the establishment of plant community boundaries. Bericht der Deutschen Botanischen Gesellschaft 89: 415–443.
Wessels K.J., Van Jaarsveld A.S., Grimbeek J.D. and Van der Linde M.J. 1998. An evaluation of the gradsect biological survey method. Biological Conservation 7: 1093–1121.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Maggini, R., Guisan, A. & Cherix, D. A stratified approach for modeling the distribution of a threatened ant species in the Swiss National Park. Biodiversity and Conservation 11, 2117–2141 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1021338510860
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1021338510860