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Impact of the Spanish smoke-free laws on cigarette sales, 2000–2015: partial bans on smoking in public places failed and only a total tobacco ban worked

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 July 2018

Jaime Pinilla ,
Beatriz G. López-Valcárcel  and
Miguel A. Negrín
Jaime Pinilla*
Affiliation:
Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Management, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain
Beatriz G. López-Valcárcel
Affiliation:
Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Management, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain
Miguel A. Negrín
Affiliation:
Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Management, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain
*
*Correspondence to: Jaime Pinilla, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Management, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Campus de Tafira, 35017, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain. Email: jaime.pinilla@ulpgc.es
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Abstract

In January 2006, the Spanish government enacted a tobacco control law that banned smoking in bars and restaurants, with exceptions depending on the floor space of the premises. In January 2011, further legislation in this area was adopted, removing these exceptions. We analyse the effect produced on cigarette sales by these two bans. We approach this problem using an interrupted time series analysis while accounting for the potential effects of autocorrelation and seasonality. The data source used was the official data on legal sales of tobacco in Spain, from January 2000 to December 2015 (excluding the Canary Islands and the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla). As confounder variables, we use the log-transformed average prices for manufactured and hand-rolled cigarettes (or the average minimum excise tax as a proxy), and log-transformed real-household disposable income. The implementation of a total smoke-free ban in Spain was associated with an immediate reduction in cigarette sales between 9% to 11%. In contrast, in the period immediately following the partial ban, no such reduction was detected, beyond the trend already present. Our results indicate that, in Spain, partial bans on smoking in public places failed, and that only a total tobacco ban worked.

Keywords

tobaccosmoke-free lawsSpaintime series
Type
Articles
Information
Health Economics, Policy and Law , Volume 14 , Issue 4 , October 2019 , pp. 536 - 552
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2018 

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