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Prospects for Cross-Strait Political Negotiation: Exploring Win-Sets

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 July 2017

Josh Wenger  and
Ming-tong Chen
Josh Wenger
Affiliation:
National Taiwan University. Email: wenger.jt@gmail.com.
Ming-tong Chen*
Affiliation:
National Taiwan University.
*
Email: mingtung@ntu.edu.tw (corresponding author).
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Abstract

This study adopts a pre-negotiation approach based on Robert Putnam's win-set concept to examine domestic constraints on cross-Strait political negotiation. Survey research of elite opinion in both China and Taiwan and of public opinion in Taiwan is used to estimate each side's win-set (that is, the set of political negotiation outcomes that could win majority approval domestically) during Ma Ying-jeou's second presidential term in Taiwan (2012–2016). The possibility for overlap in win-sets that could provide a zone of possible agreement and the potential for coalitions in favour of negotiation are analysed. The study finds no win-set overlap and limited potential for coalitions favouring negotiation outcomes with the least distance from overlap, concluding that domestic conditions for formal political negotiations between Beijing and Taipei are unlikely to be ripe in the near term.

摘要

本研究采取「前置谈判」(pre-negotiation) 研究途径来探讨国内因素如何影响两岸开启政治谈判之可能性, 将分析焦点置於罗伯特 ‧ 帕特南 (Robert Putnam) 的「获胜集合」(win-set) 概念。作者利用针对中国大陆与台湾之两岸事务专家以及台湾民衆所作的调查, 估算马英九第二任期 (2012–1016) 内两岸各自的获胜集合, 意即能获得国内多数同意之政治协议方案的集合。文章接著分析双方的获胜集合是否重叠而得以形成「协议区」 (zone of possible agreement) 以及赞同政治谈判的潜在联盟。本研究发现该时期内两岸在胜利集合上不存在重叠之处, 形成推动政治谈判之潜在联盟的空间亦相当有限。本研究因此指出, 两岸展开政治谈判的国内条件难以在近期内臻於成熟。

Keywords

cross-Straitpre-negotiationtwo-level gamewin-setopinion surveyzone of possible agreementpolitical negotiationTaiwanChina两岸前置谈判双层赛局获胜集合调查研究协议区政治谈判台湾中国
Type
Focus on Taiwan
Information
The China Quarterly , Volume 232 , December 2017 , pp. 932 - 955
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Copyright
Copyright © SOAS University of London 2017 

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