The data published in this review are the work of the author, and the published articles explaining the methods have been cited. Previous work on global estimates of disease published since 1985 were identified in PubMed. Selected English-language articles from my personal collection were used to explain observed patterns and time trends in the results.
ReviewGlobal cancer statistics in the year 2000
Section snippets
Estimation
The global estimates are built up from estimates of incidence, mortality, and prevalence in every nation in the world. The methods used have been described with respect to earlier estimates for 1990.7, 8, 9 The basic data are the best available information on incidence, mortality, and survival in a country. Incidence rates are obtained from cancer registries. They may cover entire national populations or selected regions. They also provide statistics on cancer survival, enabling incidence to be
The 2000 estimates
We estimate that there were 10.1 million new cases, 6.2 million deaths, and 22 million people living with cancer (within 5 years of diagnosis) in 2000 (Figure 1). These estimates are based on the most recent incidence and mortality data available. The total ‘all cancer’ excludes non-melanoma skin cancers, because of the difficulties of measurement, and consequent lack of data. The 2000 estimate represents an increase of about 22% in incidence and mortality since our last comprehensive estimates
Lung cancer
This is the most common cancer in the world, both in terms of incidence (1.2 million new cases or 12.3% of the world total) and mortality (1.1 million deaths or 17.8% of the total); 52% of new cases occur in more developed countries. It is by far the most common cancer of men worldwide with the highest rates observed in North America, Europe (especially eastern Europe), South America, and Australia/New Zealand. Moderately high rates are also seen in parts of eastern Asia. In less developed
Breast cancer
This is the second most frequent cancer in the world (1.05 million cases), and is by far the most common malignant disease in women (22% of all new cancer cases). Worldwide, the ratio of mortality to incidence is about 36%. Because of this relatively favourable prognosis, breast cancer ranks fifth as a cause of death from cancer overall (although it is the leading cause of cancer mortality in women – the 370 000 annual deaths represent 13.9% of cancer deaths in women). Breast cancer is the most
Colorectal cancers
These cancers rank third in frequency of incidence (945 000 new cases, 9.4% of the world total) and mortality (492 000 deaths, 7.9% of the total), with similar numbers in men and women (ratio 1.1 to 1). The relatively good prognosis means that colorectal cancer is the second most prevalent cancer in the world after breast cancer, with an estimated 2.4 million people alive with the disease diagnosed in the previous 5 years (Figure 4).
The incidence of large-bowel cancer is high in North America,
Stomach cancer
Stomach cancer is the fourth most frequent cancer, with 876 000 new cases (8.7% of the total) and 647 000 deaths (10.4% of cancer deaths) in 2000. Almost two-thirds of these cases occured in less developed countries. Age-standardised incidence rates are highest in Japan (69.2 per 100 000 in men, 28.6 per 100 000 in women). High rates are also present in both sexes in eastern Asia, eastern Europe, and Central and South America. The rates are low in eastern and northern Africa, North America, and
Liver cancer
This is the fifth most important cancer worldwide (564 000 or 5.6% of new cancer cases) but, because of the very poor prognosis, the number of deaths is almost the same (549 000), and it is the third most common cause of death from cancer; 81% of cases occur in the less developed countries (with 54% in China). The highest incidence rates are in western and central Africa (where it accounts for almost a quarter of cancer in men), eastern and southeastern Asia, and in Melanesia. Incidence is low
Prostate cancer
With 543 000 new cases, prostate cancer is the sixth most common cancer in the world, and third in importance in men (10.2% of new cancer cases – 16.6% in more developed countries and 4.5% in less developed countries). The prognosis is relatively good, so it is a less prominent cause of mortality, with 204 000 deaths (5.8% of cancer deaths in men, 3.3% of all cancer deaths). The estimated prevalence in 2000 was 1.6 million. More than any other cancer, this is a malignant disease of the elderly
Cervical cancer
This is the second most common cancer in women worldwide (471 000 annual cases, 233 000 deaths). Almost 80% cases occur in less developed countries, where cervical cancer accounts for 15% of cancer in women, with a lifetime risk of about 2%. In more developed countries it accounts for only 4.2% of new cancers, with a lifetime risk of 1%. The highest incidence rates are observed in Latin America and the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa, and south and southeast Asia (Figure 6). In more developed
Oesophageal cancer
This is the eighth most common cancer worldwide, causing 412 000 new cases (4.1% of the total), and 338 000 deaths. Geographical variation in incidence is very striking. The highest risk areas of the world are in the Asian ‘oesophageal cancer belt’ (stretching from northern Iran through the central Asian republics to north-central China), with incidence rates as high as 200 per 100 000. High rates are also present in parts of east and southeast Africa, eastern South America, and certain parts
The future
Future cancer burden can be projected from trends of incidence and mortality in the past. Our estimates for 2000 did not incorporate any assumptions about existing trends. Prediction of future patterns is even more difficult. For one thing, projections based on historical patterns are not always a sound basis for future predictions. There can be quite abrupt changes in trends in incidence and/or mortality with the development of successful early detection or new forms of treatment, as described
Search strategy and selection criteria
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