Overview Paper
A GIS-based tool to support air traffic management during explosive volcanic eruptions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2014.09.020Get rights and content

Highlights

  • Methodology to assess expected impacts of volcanic ash dispersal on air traffic.

  • Automation of the methodology into a general-purpose GIS-based tool.

  • The GIS-based tool can support decision-makers during emergencies.

  • Further developments rely on collaboration with target users.

Abstract

We present a methodology to estimate the impacts of volcanic ash dispersal on civil aviation and a software tool aimed at assisting air traffic management in the event of ash-contaminated airspace. The tool merges atmospheric dispersal model forecasts with air traffic data in a map-based platform to produce tables and maps showing potentially affected airports, flights and airspace sectors. Impacts can be estimated based on user-defined ash concentration thresholds, or on the amount of ash potentially ingested by airplanes flying through diluted ash clouds. The impact can be assessed on single Flight Level (FL) slabs, or across the whole vertical airspace. The procedure is automated within a Geographical Information System (GIS). For illustrative purposes, we estimate the potential impacts on the European air traffic of an eruption from Katla volcano in Iceland, assuming a “worst-case” meteorological scenario. We compare the capabilities of the tool with those of similar existing software and justify our design choices. Finally, we discuss the use of the tool in current and future air traffic management strategies during explosive volcanic eruptions.

Introduction

The impact of volcanic ash on modern jet engines was first documented during the 1980s following well-known in-flight encounters with ash clouds (Casadevall, 1994, Guffanti et al., 2004). In turn, the hazard posed by ash fallout on airports has been described and characterized since the early 1990s (Casadevall, 1993, Guffanti et al., 2008). However, the systemic impact of airspace contamination on a dense air traffic network was underestimated until the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland (Bolić and Sivčev, 2011), which caused the largest aviation breakdown since the World War II (Oxford Economics, 2010, Bolić and Sivčev, 2011). Civil aviation management during ash-producing volcanic eruptions is complex and involves multiple aspects, disciplines and actors, from scientists to civil aviation authorities and stakeholders dealing with decision-making both at short-term (emergency management; shortly before and during disruption) and long-term (territorial and strategic planning). Shortly after the 2010 event, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) established the International Volcanic Ash Task Force (IVATF) by gathering experts from different fields that identified the main issues to be solved for a better management of flight operations in ash-contaminated airspace. One of the main concerns was the definition of ash concentration thresholds for flying in presence of ash at low concentration levels (IVATF, 2010, Bonadonna et al., 2011), which is still an open issue (Bolić and Sivčev, 2012, Bonadonna et al., 2013). On the other hand and in collaboration with the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), the IVATF suggested that airlines should be able to decide whether to fly or not in a low-contaminated airspace after the approval of a dedicated Safety Risk Assessment (SRA) plan (IVATF, 2011). This approach was tested during the 2011 VOLCEX exercise (Gait and Sivčev, 2011), a training performed regularly at the ICAO European and Northern Atlantic Region (EUR-NAT) with the objective of improving the response of stakeholders to volcanic eruptions. The new guidelines, described in the ICAO “Flight Safety and Volcanic Ash” document (ICAO 2012), have global validity and are in the process of implementation in Europe.

Observations and ash dispersal forecasts based on atmospheric dispersal models are the first key element to support civil aviation management during a crisis (Folch, 2012). From the scientific point of view, a remarkable progress is taking place in the aftermath of the 2010 event to improve the accuracy of models and reduce/quantify its associated uncertainties (Bonadonna et al., 2011). For the short-term, research is focusing on enhancing ash retrieval algorithms and model forecasts using cutting-edge techniques such as data assimilation and data inversion (to better quantify the source term), or ensemble forecast techniques (Bonadonna et al., 2013), even if these improvements are not at an operational level yet. For the long-term, ash dispersal modeling is also better tailored to civil aviation, and probabilistic hazard assessments already exist for several volcanoes worldwide (e.g. Papp et al., 2005, Barsotti et al., 2010, Folch and Sulpizio, 2010, Leadbetter and Hort, 2011, Scaini et al., 2012, Scaini et al., 2013, Sulpizio et al., 2012, Bonasia et al., 2013, Biass et al., 2014). The second key element regards impact assessment, necessary to manage emergencies and improve long-term preparedness. To this purpose, a pivotal aspect is to combine outcomes form ash dispersal models (i.e. short-term forecasts or long-term probabilistic analyses) and air traffic data (Scaini et al., 2013). This aspect is one of the key lessons learned from 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption: “…a need for improved information exchange regarding the volcanic ash impact on daily operations is noted by the intended users of the information.” (Bolić and Sivčev, 2011). One of the few existing tools combining the ash dispersal forecast and air traffic data is EVITA prototype (European crisis Visualization Interactive Tool for ATFCM) that was developed as a response to cited airlines’ requirement. EVITA is a web-based tool developed in 2010 by EUROCONTROL. EVITA was used during several VOLCEX exercises (Bolić and Sivčev, 2012) and during the 2011 Grímsvötn eruption in Iceland. EVITA is accessed on-line, allows the visualization of ash charts from Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) and air traffic data (flight plans submitted to Network Manager). In addition, EVITA supports the identification of impacted airspaces, airports and flights, in both horizontal and vertical planes. However, geographically it covers only Europe, visualizes the VAAC forecast (6 hour time intervals), filed flight plans and closed airspace, and above all, it is still in the prototype phase. In addition, substantial training time is required for its use, which is in short supply during the crisis. One other possibility is provided by WSI, professional division of The Weather Company. WSI offers the visualisation of ash dispersion as a part of their aviation forecasting services, which are paid for, the amount depending on the contract details between WSI and the airline.

Here we have to note that each airline has a different approach to flight dispatch and related tasks, the flight planning in presence of ash being one of them, albeit one of the most complex ones. The tools and services (like weather forecast services) used, depend on the airline business model, cost benefit analysis for the needs of the flight dispatch department, and so on. Thus, different airlines use different software packages to create and visualize their own flights. Until 2010, only the VAAC graphical and textual outputs were used. As volcanic eruptions close to dense air traffic network are a rare event, most airlines relied on VAAC forecasts. After 2010, many airlines used EVITA, when it was operational (it is still in the prototype stage, as many features need improvement), some others used WSI service, combined with EVITA, some others have their own meteorologists that process VAAC output and weather information to the best of their knowledge.

In order to bridge this gap, we present a more generic GIS-based tool aimed at assessing impacts of volcanic ash dispersal on civil aviation. Firstly, this manuscript describes the technical aspects of the tool (pre-processing of data and impact assessment methodology) that build upon an early prototype described in Scaini et al. (2013). The impact assessment methodology considers different elements like airports, airspace sectors and routes. Secondly, and for illustrative purposes, we evaluate the potential impact on the European air traffic network of an eruption from Katla volcano in Iceland and discus the specific findings. We underline the advantages and disadvantages of the current approach with respect to EVITA and the previous prototype (Scaini et al., 2013), and suggest further developments. Finally, we describe the potential benefits of the tool for different stakeholders involved in civil aviation management during volcanic eruptions.

Section snippets

Impact assessment methodologies and software tool

Impact assessment needs to combine ash dispersal model outputs and air traffic data. These two types of inputs are imported to the tool by means of an I/O interface that can read results from different models and air traffic databases and does necessary file format conversions. The purpose of the interface is to homogenize, to give flexibility to customize inputs, and to facilitate the inclusion of models and air traffic database in the future. Once interfaced, input data are prepared for the

Application example

For illustrative purposes, this section presents an impact assessment for the European airspace considering an eruption scenario for Katla volcano in Iceland.

Limitations of the tool and further improvements

The impact assessment analysis identifies the potentially impacted features and supports flight operations in an ash-contaminated airspace, if compliant with the approved SRAs. In this section we discuss the improvements introduced in the tool and the limitations to be solved in the future. It is worth noticing that most limitations rely on specific information on current procedures that have to be implemented by the involved stakeholders. Thus, further developments must co-involve scientists

Summary and conclusions

We have presented a methodology and a tool to assess the impacts on air traffic features (airports, routes and airspace sectors) from volcanic ash dispersal. GIS is identified as a new and useful instrument to support ATM in case of volcanic eruptions and other spatially based hazards. The impact assessment analysis, performed for different ash concentration thresholds and flight levels and accounting for ash dispersal forecast uncertainties, can support decision-makers during a crisis. We

Acknowledgements

This work has been partially funded by the Spanish Research Project “Atmospheric transport models and massive parallelism: applications to volcanic ash clouds and dispersion of pollutants at an urban micro-scale” (ATMOST, CGL2009-10244). Simulations have been performed at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS), using the MareNostrum supercomputer. We thank the EUROCONTROL for providing data and for their suggestions. We acknowledge the anonymous referees for improving the quality of the

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