Elsevier

Tourism Management

Volume 28, Issue 2, April 2007, Pages 570-579
Tourism Management

Research article
Implications of climate and environmental change for nature-based tourism in the Canadian Rocky Mountains: A case study of Waterton Lakes National Park

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2006.04.020Get rights and content

Abstract

In western North America, Rocky Mountain national parks represent a major resource for nature-based tourism. This paper examines how climate change may influence park tourism in the Rocky Mountain region by focusing on both the direct and indirect impacts of climate change for visitation to Waterton Lakes National Park (WLNP) (Alberta, Canada). A statistical model of monthly visitation and climate was developed to examine the direct impact of climate change on visitation. The model projected that annual visitation would increase between 6% and 10% in the 2020s and between 10% and 36% in the 2050s. To explore how climate-induced environmental change could also indirectly affect visitation, a visitor survey was used (N=425). The environmental change scenarios for the 2020s and 2050s were found to have minimal influence on visitation, however the environmental change scenario for the 2080s (under the warmest climate change conditions) was found to have a negative effect on visitation, as 19% of respondents indicated they would not visit the park and 37% stated they would visit the park less often. The contrasting result of the two analyses for the longer-term impact of climate change was a key finding. The management implications of these findings and methodological challenges associate with climate change impact assessment for tourism are also discussed.

Introduction

Nature-based tourism is an important element of the tourism industry in North America. National parks in Canada and the United States are central components of this tourism market (Jones & Scott, 2006). Eagles, McLean, and Stabler (2000) estimated that there were over 2.6 billion visitor days in parks and protected areas in Canada and the United States in 1996, 300 million of which occurred in national parks.

A sizable share of park tourism in North America is concentrated in national parks located in the mountainous regions of western Canada and the United States. In Canada, approximately 65% (or ∼10 million visits) of all national park visits in 2003 occurred in the six national parks located in the Rocky Mountains (Parks Canada, 2004); 10 million people visited the four US-based Rocky Mountain national parks during the same year, representing 17% of all national park visits in the United States in 2003 (National Park Service, 2005). The economic impact of tourism in the Rocky Mountain region is equally significant. Tourism-related expenditures by visitors to three mountain national parks in the Province of Alberta (Banff, Jasper and Waterton Lakes) were estimated to exceed US$765 million (Alberta Economic Development, 2000). In the United States, Yellowstone National Park generates an estimated US$2 billion in economic benefits for the states of Montana, Wyoming and Idaho (Gourley, 1997).

Climate directly affects nature-based tourism by limiting when specific recreation and tourism activities can occur (e.g. season length with snow cover or open water), recreation/tourism demand (e.g. proportion of people willing to swim or camp under certain conditions), and the quality of a recreation/tourism experience (utility) (e.g. hiking in warm, sunny conditions versus a cold rain or extreme heat).

In the Rocky Mountain region, this climatic influence manifests itself through a marked seasonality in park visitation; nearly two-thirds (64%) of annual person visits in Canada's six mountain parks occur during the traditional warm-weather months of May–September (Parks Canada, 2004). Scott and Suffling (2000) and Scott (2003) argue that any direct changes in the length and quality of warm-weather tourism seasons induced by global climate change could present opportunities to increase visitation in national parks in this region. Visitor increases precipitated by a warmer climate would have benefits for park revenues and the economies of gateway communities near each park, but could also exacerbate visitor-related environmental pressures in some high-visitation mountain national parks in Canada and the United States.

Climate indirectly affects nature-based tourism by impacting the physical resources that define the nature and quality of natural environments on which mountain tourism depends (i.e. climate-induced biophysical change). Any changes in the natural characteristics of mountain environments could negatively influence tourism by reducing the perceived attractiveness of the region's mountain parks (Elsasser & Bürki, 2002; Scott, 2003; Wall, 1992). For example, drought conditions during the summer of 1988 contributed to widespread forest fires in Yellowstone National Park, which resulted in evacuations of campgrounds and seasonal visitor accommodations being closed 4 weeks earlier than normal (Franke, 2000). Total annual visits to Yellowstone in 1988 were reduced 15% (compared to 1987) and park officials estimated that the forest fires resulted in a loss of tourism-related economic benefits of US$60 million (Franke, 2000).

Progress has been made in documenting climate-induced biophysical changes in the mountain region of western North America and a number of studies have examined the potential biophysical impacts of climate change to the end of the 21st century. Analysis of biome-scale vegetation modeling suggests that under climate change mountain parks in this region would experience both latitudinal and elevational environmental changes with the potential for species reorganization and loss of biodiversity (Scott, Malcolm, & Lemieux, 2002). In an analysis of Glacier National Park (Montana), Hall and Farge (2003) projected that forests would advance upslope approximately 20 m per decade through 2050. While similar advancements in the tree line are projected for Yellowstone National Park, the results of vegetation modeling further suggested that the range of high-elevation species would decrease, some tree species would be regionally extirpated and new vegetation communities not currently found in the park would emerge (Bartlein, Whitlock, & Shafer, 1997).

Glaciers in western North America are important tourist attractions for mountain parks, but they have been retreating over the past century and are projected to continue to do so under climate change. Glacier National Park has lost 115 of its 150 glaciers over the past century and scientists estimate that the remaining 35 glaciers will disappear over the next 30 years (Hall & Farge, 2003). Similar projections have been made for glaciers in Canada's Rocky Mountain parks with glaciers less than 100 m thick projected to disappear over the next 30–40 years (Brugman, Raistrick, & Pietroniro, 1997). If such glacier retreat is realized in the Rocky Mountains, Glacier National Park would lose its namesake and the very resource that defines it. Scott (2005) also argued that the projected glacial retreat in Canada could severely hinder the snocoach tours (specially designed buses take visitors onto the Athabasca glacier) that attract 600,000 visitors annually to the Columbia Icefields between Banff and Jasper national parks.

Mountain ecosystems depend on fire for regeneration, but forest fires pose a threat for park tourism. Under climate change, the frequency and severity of forest fires in the mountainous region of western Canada is projected to increase. Vegetation and fire behavior modeling by Li, Flannigan, and Corns (2000) suggested that west-central Alberta would experience a one-point shift in the fire fuel moisture code under a mean temperature increase of 4 °C (+7.2 F), which would contribute to an increase in the frequency of fires that burn more than 1000 ha. Stocks et al. (1998) projected that the geographic area in western Canada currently designated as having an ‘extreme’ fire danger would expand in the 2050s. Similar regional projections were made by Flannigan et al. (2001) and Weber and Flannigan (1997). If the fire season becomes more severe under climate change, it is possible that visitors to mountain parks may experience more restrictions on their activities (e.g. campfire bans; trail and park closures).

As lakes and streams warm, temperature-induced habitat loss and range shifts are projected to occur, contributing to losses in recreationally valued fish populations. Research on the thermal habitat for salmonid species in the Rocky Mountain region of the United States found that a projected 4 °C (+7.2 F) summer warming in the region would reduce habitat area by 62% (Keleher & Rahel, 1996). Simulation studies of cold-water fish habitats revealed that the southern boundaries of some cold-water fish in the United States could move 500 km northward under climate change (Magnuson, 1998). Increases in lake and river temperatures could place pressure on cold-water fish species in the Rocky Mountain region, thus providing opportunities for the geographic expansion of cool- and warm-water species that have higher temperature tolerances.

There remains a great deal of uncertainty as to how potential climate change impacts on seasonality and mountain landscapes would impact park visitation around the world and in western North America. In the only empirical study to examine the potential impact of climate change on mountain park tourism, Richardson and Loomis (2004) assessed the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on visitation to Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) (Colorado, USA). Regression analysis of historical monthly visitation data (1987–1999) and four climate variables for the park's peak and shoulder seasons was used to model the current influence of climate on park visitation and the projected changes under climate change for the 2020s. Richardson and Loomis (2004) found that visitation to RMNP would increase 7–12% in the 2020s as the warm-weather tourism season was extended. Visitors to the park were also surveyed to determine how their visitation patterns (number of visits and duration of stay) might change under a range of early environmental change scenarios. Although hypothetical, the environmental change scenarios were partially developed on the basis of climate change studies of the potential environmental impacts in the park. Environmental changes in the 2020s were found to have minimal effect on visitor behavior, as visitation was projected to increase between 10% and 14% under the two environmental scenarios used in the visitor survey.

With the results of their regression analysis of visitation data and tourist survey projecting similar increases in park visitation, Richardson and Loomis (2004) concluded that climate change through the 2020s would have a positive effect on park visitation in the Rocky Mountains, and suggested that the results for RMNP would be representative for a number of mountain parks in the United States (Glacier, Grand Teton and Yellowstone) and Canada (Banff, Jasper and Waterton Lakes).

The Richardson and Loomis (2004) study only examined the potential impacts of early stages of climate change projected for the 21st century and thus the implications of much greater warming and environmental change projected for the latter half of the century (IPCC, 2001) remain an important knowledge gap. While climate change scenarios for the 2020s have the most relevance for contemporary tourism planning and there remains substantial uncertainty about the magnitude of long-term climate change projections (i.e. 2050s, 2080s) (IPCC, 2001), the potential implications of longer-term changes should be explored for strategic relevance to park managers, the tourism industry and broader climate change policy (i.e. the costs of impacts verses mitigation). It remains uncertain whether Richardson and Loomis’ (2004) findings would be representative of the potential influence of long-term climate change on mountain park visitation. Will climate change-induced seasonality and environmental changes continue to have a positive effect on visitation or will environmental changes projected for mountainous regions in western North America towards the end of the 21st century begin to have a negative impact on visitation?

This paper presents an empirical assessment of climate and visitation in the Canadian Rocky Mountains in order to determine how visitors may respond to future climate change and related environmental change. Using a similar methodological approach to Richardson and Loomis (2004), the specific objectives of the study were to: (1) develop a model of climate and park visitation in order to examine the implications of changed climatic conditions on future visitation levels and seasonal visitation patterns; (2) survey park visitors to determine how a range of potential climate-induced environmental changes may influence their intention to visit the park and visitation frequency; and, (3) compare the implications of direct climatic changes and indirect climate-induced environmental changes on park visitation at three time steps commonly used in climate change impact assessments (2020s, 2050s and 2080s). Conceptually, the analyses of the potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change are considered separate and therefore the respective methodologies and results are presented individually and then compared in the final discussion section.

Section snippets

Data and research methods

The focus of this study is Waterton Lakes National Park (WLNP), which is located along the foothills of the Canadian Rocky Mountains in southwestern Alberta adjacent to the Canada–US international border. WLNP is described by Parks Canada as a place ‘where windswept mountains rise abruptly out of gentle prairie grassland’ (Parks Canada, 2005). WLNP, the smallest of Canada's six Rocky Mountain national parks (525 km; ∼130,000 acres), receives nearly 400,000 visitors annually (Parks Canada, 2004);

Direct influence of climate and climate change on visitation

Similar to other national parks in the Rocky Mountains of western North America, there is marked seasonality to WLNP's visitation. Fig. 2 illustrates monthly visits to WLNP for the 2000–2003 tourism seasons. Person visits were found to be highest during the summer months of July and August (∼110,000 per month) when most Canadians have school or work-related vacations (i.e. institutional seasonality). The winter period between November and March traditionally experienced the lowest levels of

Discussion and concluding comments

This case study examined the potential impact of climate change on nature-based tourism in WLNP, one of Canada's Rocky Mountain national parks. The study used two separate methodological approaches to examine the potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on park visitation. A multi-year data set of monthly observed visitation were used to develop regression-based climate–visitation models in order to explore how a changed climate could directly impact the timing and number of

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