Climate change and tourism: Impacts and responses. A case study of Khaoyai National Park

Abstract

The problem of climate change has discernible impacts on human living on a wide scale. This study explores the effect of climate change on changes in tourism trends at Khaoyai National Park. In 2010, Khaoyai National Park had a recreational and tourism value of approximately 2.8–3.7 billion baht ($93–$123 million) per year. Temperature and climate changes are considered by many tourists to be significant factors influencing whether they visit the park. This study discovers that increases in temperature and precipitation each year have adversely affected the number of tourists to the site, reducing the number of visits by 22%. The total recreational value of the park is estimated to be 1.8–2.6 billion baht ($60–$86 million) per year, approximately 30–35% less than in the baseline case.

Introduction

Climate change and global warming are currently considered a global crisis that has devastated human living conditions and the ecosystem, as is evident by the melting of snow and ice, causing sea levels to rise, as well as the emission of greenhouse gases causing global temperatures to increase. These examples clearly demonstrate the consequence of anthropogenic contributions. A study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2001 discovered an increase in the average global temperature from 0.6 °C 140 years ago to 1 °C today.

Apart from controlling and mitigating the level of greenhouse gas emissions, there are additional necessary preparatory actions addressing the future deep impact of climate change. However, only taking careful precautions and making preparations to encounter this future issue are not sufficient. The problems of climate change and the change of earth temperature are hardly predictable and have wide consequences affecting every part of the world.

Past studies have primarily focused on the impact of climate change and adaptation to it, especially in the agricultural and industrial sectors. It is hardly denied that the agricultural sector is inevitably affected by climate change, as it is instantly and directly involved with nature. In the industrial sector, there is also a policy to control greenhouse emissions that some industrial sectors must carefully monitor to comply with policy and law enforcement within each country and on an international scale.

The agricultural and industrial sectors are not the only sectors affected by climate change; tourism is considered another sector that is affected by it. The United Nation World Tourism Organization's (UNWTO) forum on the impact of climate change on tourism in 2007 prioritized key issues concerning the change in global temperatures (UNWTO, 2007). We are witnessing the melting of snow in major ski resorts and changes in the color of sea coral (UNWTO, 2009).

Thailand's tourism sector is one of the country's major revenue-generating sources. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) in 2007, tourism revenue in terms of export value amounted to 12.6% of the country's GDP, or 765 billion baht, in 2007. It is further expected that the industry will generate revenue as high as 1.8 trillion baht in 2017, with labor expansion targeted to be up to 4.76 million jobs. Currently, the tourism sector has secured 1.9 million jobs or 5.3% of the entire country's job employment, which can accommodate up to 4.11 million positions. In terms of private investment, the tourism sector has created an investment value of up to 206 billion baht or represented 8.5% of the total private investment of the entire nation. This value excludes another 27 billion baht from a government stimulus package promoting Thailand tourism (The Post Publishing Public Co., Ltd., 2008).

According to studies of Hamilton, Maddison, and Tol (2005) and Ehmer and Heymann's (2008) on the impact of climate change on the change in the number of tourist visits worldwide have suggested that Thailand (and most countries in Southeast Asia) was affected and experienced a decline in the number of tourists. The model of Hamilton et al. (2005) predicts the number of foreign tourists to decrease by approximately 10–25% for each degree Celsius increase in temperature and the percentage of foreign tourists to reduce by 25–80% if temperatures increase by 4 °C by 2025. However, outbound tourists are expected to increase as temperature increases. Countries in cooler zones are expected to benefit from this consequence, as tourists are able to spend a longer time in these regions.

Several studies have attempted to discover the impact of changes in world temperatures on various tourist attractions around the world. Breiling and Charamza (1999) studied the effect on winter tourism and skiing in Australia, and Browne and Hunt (2007) studied the effect on tourism in Ontario, Canada. However, no study has been found on the impact and consequence of climate change on various tourist attractions in Thailand.

To analyze demand for traveling, the travel cost model (TCM) is usually applied. Several studies applying this model include Gurluk and Rehber (2008), Chen et al. (2003), Boontho (2008) and Seenpreachawong (2003). The main purpose of applying TCM is primarily to estimate “recreational value” by measuring tourist satisfaction through consumer surplus. In addition, TCM can also be used to measure changes in recreational value resulting from changes in environmental quality. Despite the vast number of papers estimating recreational value of a site, there are only few studies exploring the impact of changes in environmental quality on a site's value in Thailand.

This study is primarily focused on the impact of climate change on tourism in Khaoyai National Park. In particular, this study explores the impact of temperature changes and rainfall. The next section discusses the general characteristics of Khaoyai Natural Park and its climate, Section 3 explains the model used in this study, Section 4 presents the findings and Section 5 provides a conclusion and recommendation.