Elsevier

Sustainable Cities and Society

Volume 44, January 2019, Pages 629-645
Sustainable Cities and Society

Impact of climate change on demands for heating and cooling energy in hospitals: An in-depth case study of six islands located in the Indian Ocean region

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2018.10.031Get rights and content

Highlights

  • 34.6–50.2% increase in cooling energy demand by 2060.

  • Set around of 0.05 m, the thermal insulation thickness has a significant effect.

  • Energy consumption depends on the building type.

Abstract

This research was conducted in order to assess the impact that climate change has on the demands for heating and cooling energy in hospitals in six cities located in six countries in the Indian Ocean region. Three scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were applied in the undertaking of this work. The hourly outdoor data relating to air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, radiation, and atmospheric pressure recorded over the last 30 years were used as inputs by Meteonorm software to enable the forecasting. The averages obtained in all the 18 models used in the IPCC report 2007 were included in the Meteonorm software and applied for assessing the future climate. The Energy-Plus software was used for assessing the thermal performance of hospitals under natural ventilation, then the energy demand during five periods (past, current, 2030, 2060, and 2090). Thermal insulation was utilized as a passive strategy for reducing cooling and heating energy consumption in the hospitals. Results showed that the use of an envelope of thermal insulation in hospitals was one of the solutions that allowed a reduction in the energy consumption for cooling and heating while increasing the thermal comfort within the hospital. Moreover, by 2090, the ventilation system was recommended in all these hospitals for improving the quality of indoor air, since the heat rate was very high. In the cases of the six islands in the Indian Ocean, each of them represented by one city, the annual energy demand for cooling will increase between 17.1 and 25.4% by 2030; 34.6 and 50.2% by 2060; and 60.8 and 95.1% by 2090. With the use of passive design as a strategy, the annual mean thermal performance of hospitals is predicted to increase to 184% by 2060, while 40% of the cost of cooling energy will be saved. Despite this, the outdoor climate will be 5% harsher in Victoria than in other cities by the year 2090.

Introduction

Taking into account all the changes that are regularly observed in our environment, and the multiplication of natural disasters occurring around the world (floods, droughts, famines, multiplication of diseases, cyclones, etc.), how do some people seem to ignore the impacts that climate change has on our environment? Nowadays, it can be observed that the world is taking note of these calamities, but in spite of that, the impact on nature remains unchanged. Indeed, the violent disasters suffered around the world in recent years had already been predicted several years earlier by climate change specialists and members of IPCC. Today, despite the efforts of the international community, all the clauses and resolutions adopted after several summits and conferences related to this phenomenon are not always given due weightage. Human degradation of nature remains very high. Firstly, the majority of developed countries continue to destroy the environment through new technologies, yet refuse to pay compensatory taxes to the international community. Secondly, it is seen that the developing countries, or poor countries, also continue to relentlessly exploit their natural resources, which previously served to protect the environment. At this rate of degradation, the planet Earth runs the risk of becoming uninhabited in the next century, according to the current climatic variations and the degree of warming that is constantly on the rise. According to the new IPCC report (Meteorological Office, 2017), during this current decade, high air temperatures were observed in some global regions. For example, throughout the year 2015, the degree of heat recorded was so high that 2015 was considered to be the warmest year of this decade. According to some researchers (Chan, 2011; Levy et al., 2004; Radhi, 2009; Rosenthal, Gruenspecht, & Moran, 1995), it is predicted that the average air temperature during the period 2081–2100 is expected to be 0.3–4.8 °C higher than that during the 1986–2005 period (IPCC, 2013). The main cause of the rising global temperature is the build-up of green house gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide, methane, etc. (IPCC, 2013). The increase in the outside climate is above all a natural phenomenon. Nevertheless, the global warming observed in recent years is a consequence of the action of human beings on nature (Nematchoua, Tchinda, Roshan, Ricciardi, & Nasrabadi, 2015a). According to IPCC, the Indian Ocean region is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world when considering the high impacts of climate change. During this past decade, each one of the countries studied was ravaged by at least three cyclones each year, which significantly affects the outside climate. Only for the year 2018, the expectation is up to 26 cyclones in this region (Saincon Cyclonique, 2017). According to A2 scenario, this study showed that the air temperature will register an increase of 3.1 °C in this region. The energy demand in buildings depends on the fluctuations in the outdoor climate. It was seen that in the next decade the increase in air temperature increased the demand for cooling energy (Nakicenovic & Swart, 2000; Olonscheck, Holsten, & Kropp, 2011). In the tropical Indian Ocean climate, the cold hours of discomfort tend to diminish, while the heat hours of discomfort increase considerably. The prime role of a building is to ensure the health of its inhabitants (Nematchoua, Tchinda, Orosa, & Andreasi, 2015b). Energy efficiency in a building is very important for reducing energy consumption. The study of impacts of climate change on cooling and heating energy is not new. This subject has already been studied by several researchers; nevertheless, the results greatly depend on the kind of building, and the climate zone. Invidiata and Ghisi (2016) showed that the use of passive design strategies in a building can result in a reduction of up to 50% of demand for cooling energy. The research of Buontempo et al. (2015) showed that climate change has a significant effect on energy demand in buildings. Hernandez Neto and Fiorelli (2000) showed that Energy-Plus software was one of the best computer simulation programs allowing to assess the thermal performance of a building. The results found by Wang and Chen (2014) showed that in the USA (San Diego), by 2080, it will be very difficult to moderate indoor air with a passive design strategy due to very high warming levels. Asimakopoulosa et al. (2012) found that by 2100, cooling energy demands will increase by 248% in residences in Greece. In Al-Ain City, Radhi (2009) showed that in the next decade the air temperature will increase 5.9 °C. This produce the increase of cooling energy of 23.5% compared to last decade. In Mexico, Oropeza-Perez and Østergaard (2014) found that in some warm climates in this country, thermal comfort was optimal in natural ventilation, resulting in low energy demand. In Australia, the researches of Guan (Wang, Chen, & Ren, 2010) in some commercial buildings showed that by 2070, the cooling energy will increase between 28 and 59%. In the literature, in commercial and residential buildings in Switzerland, Frank (2005) found that by 2100, the demand for cooling energy will increase from 223 to 1050%, while the demand for heating energy is expected to decrease between 36 and 58%. During the same year, in the same kind of building, Wan, Li, Pan, and Lam (2012) found an increase of cooling energy demand from 11 to 20% in China and Dodoo, Gustavsson, and Bonakdar (2014) found between 33 and 49% in Sweden. This research is original and presented several novelties, indeed, the choice in selecting to carry out this study in several countries of the Indian Ocean was not random. Indeed, this whole region suffers every year from significant damage related to the effects of climate change. The geographical positions of these countries can testify to the degree of vulnerability of this region to global warming. Each city studied in each country was considered as one of the most vulnerable cities to face the effects of outside climate in this region. No studies have been done as yet, to evaluate the heating and cooling energy demands, distributed in all the six countries of the Indian Ocean, and covering several climate zones. In the literature, there are several works which study the cooling and heating energy demands in houses, restaurants, hotels, etc., but very little in-depth study has been conducted in the case of hospitals, especially using several IPCC scenarios for forecasting of the outside climate. The results obtained in every research varied according to climate and studied place. The impact of climate change on energy demand has not yet been studied in this region in the past. This research will provide a database in this area. Hospitals are public places accessible to all social groups, even the poorest. Health conditions determine all human activities. The demand for energy is steadily increasing in hospitals that are spread over the Indian Ocean region over the past few years. This study assessed the thermal performance and energy demands in the hospitals and suggested one passive strategy for increasing the comfort hours while decreasing cooling and heating energy demands.

Section snippets

Objective

The purpose of this research is to assess the future effects that climate change has on energy demands in a standard hospital, while the same design is found in some cities of the India Ocean, but with different climates. One passive design strategy was integrated as a method allowing to improve indoor thermal comfort, and to reduce the effect of climate change on the energy consumption in the hospitals.

Method

This research is divided into five main parts, i.e. (a) assessment and forecast of climatic data in the six cities distributed in six Indian Ocean islands with three scenarios; (b) assessment of the thermal performance of hospitals in the six cities, presently and in the future; (c) assessment of the energy performance of the buildings, presently and in the next few years; (d) assessment of thermal energy performance of the hospital after using passive design strategy, presently and in the

Analysis of climate data

Fig. 3, Fig. 4, Fig. 5, Fig. 6 show some climate data assessed in this study in the different cities during the three periods: past, present, and future (2030, 2060, and 2090). Fig. 3 shows the monthly outdoor air temperature for different periods in the six cities located in six countries with three different scenarios (B1, A1B, A2). It can be seen that the air temperature did not vary with the same standard deviation in all the countries. According to scenario B1, by 2060, the annual mean

Discussions

Indoor air should be moderate and comfortable to support the healing of patients in hospitals. Nowadays, several effects linked to climate change directly affect human health. The interpretation of the results of this study shows that in natural ventilation, patients in the studied hospitals were uncomfortable.

The application of thermal insulation on the building facades will allow to improve thermal comfort and reduce energy consumption. The thermal performance is optimal by fixing at 0.04 m

Conclusion

This research evaluated the effects of climate change on energy demands in the hospitals in six cities located in six islands in the Indian Ocean region. The average of all the 18 models used in the IPCC report 2007 is included in Meteonorm software and applied for assessing the future climate. In the next decade, as asserted IPCC in 2007, the air temperature is expected to be around 1.9 and 3.1 °C, in all the cities studied, according to the scenarios B1 and A2. Thus, this variation of

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