Climate triggers: Rainfall anomalies, vulnerability and communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
Highlights
► We study the link between rainfall variability and communal conflict. ► We focus on Sub-Saharan Africa between 1990 and 2008. ► Negative rainfall deviations are associated with a higher risk of communal conflict.
Introduction
As we see mounting evidence for global warming, the societal implications of climate change are ranking high on the agenda of policymakers. One of the suggested societal consequences of greater climate variability and more erratic rainfall patterns is an increased risk of armed conflict (c.f. Boko et al., 2007). In the words of US President Barack Obama, climate change “will fuel more conflict for decades” (The Economist, 2010). Africa is often held to be particularly vulnerable to political instability following climate change, as dependence on rain-fed agriculture and low institutional coping capacity make adaptation more difficult. For example, the conflicts in Darfur, Sudan, have been cited as evidence of this trend (Ban, 2007).
Academic research on the climate–conflict linkage has yet to produce conclusive evidence in support of such contentions. Instead, many large-N studies find little support that droughts or other sources of climate-induced environmental stress are associated with an increased risk of armed conflict in Africa, or anywhere else. After several years of systematic research, the relationship between climate and conflict thus remains speculative (Gleditsch, 2012). However, whereas most large-N studies focus on violent threats posed against state authority, case-based accounts of environmentally related conflicts tend to concern inter-group clashes over access to grazing land, water holes, livestock or cropland, that do not directly involve the agents of the state (e.g. Hagmann & Mulugeta, 2008; Meier, Bond, & Bond, 2007). Deviations from normal rainfall patterns undermine the livelihoods of large segments of African populations who base their income and food supply on rain-fed agriculture. We suggest, as have others, that economic desperation creates incentives for violent attacks against other communities in a direct effort to alter the allocation of scarce resources. Such violent responses to climate-induced hardships are more likely in a context of economic marginalization and political exclusion, since other coping strategies – for example offered through market-based mechanisms or state accommodation – are unavailable (Raleigh, 2010).
Based on the above observations, this article examines the association between rainfall anomalies and communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. In spite of the importance of communal conflict for understanding the human security implications of climate change, cross-national studies that move beyond case-based accounts and anecdotal evidence are sparse. This paper addresses this gap by providing the first large-N analysis across a large number of countries over time of the impact of rainfall anomalies on the risk of communal conflict. To strengthen our inferential leverage we use a spatially disaggregated dataset combining rainfall data of high spatial resolution with geo-referenced events data on the occurrence of communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2008. To examine how economic and political marginalization influences the risk of communal conflict following rainfall anomalies, we use quantitative indicators of poverty and political exclusion of ethno-political groups at the local level.
Our results suggest that large negative deviations in rainfall from the historical norm are associated with a higher risk of organized violence between societal groups. There is some evidence that political exclusion plays a role in mediating this relationship: the effect of intra-annual rainfall shortages on the risk of communal conflict is amplified in regions inhabited by politically excluded ethno-political groups. Political and physical vulnerability might thus reinforce each other, and make violent coping strategies to climate induced hardships more likely. Contrary to our expectations, our results do not provide any evidence that poverty aggravates the risk of communal conflict following anomalies in precipitation patterns.
The paper proceeds by reviewing the existing literature on the environmental sources of armed conflict. It then outlines the theoretical framework for the association between rainfall anomalies, vulnerability and communal conflict. After presenting data and research design, we discuss our empirical findings. The final section concludes.
Section snippets
Previous research
Since the mid-1990s there has been a growing interest in understanding the societal implications of climate change. The issue of resource availability is central in this discussion. Rising temperatures will be associated with greater rainfall variability and increase the frequency of severe weather events such as droughts and floods (Boko et al., 2007). A likely consequence is increased scarcity of renewable resources such as water and strains on the productivity and availability of arable land.
Rainfall anomalies, vulnerability and communal conflict
One possible reason for the mismatch between the strong claims in the environmental security literature and the weak empirical evidence offered by the large-N literature is the almost exclusive focus on armed rebellion against the state in the latter. Much of the arguments within the former literature suggest, however, that pressure on vital resources such as water or arable land is particularly likely to heighten inter-group tension, and spur violence between groups rather than attacks against
Data and research design
This article examines the relationship between rainfall anomalies and the occurrence of communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa, and empirically evaluates how this relationship is conditioned by local patterns of economic and political vulnerability. Through our empirical approach, we aim to remedy some of the shortcomings identified in much of the existing large-N literature on climate and conflict. First, we switch the focus from civil war to communal conflict, a form of organized violence
Results and analysis
In this section we present the results from multivariate regression analysis of the influence of rainfall anomalies on the risk of communal conflict. Given the dichotomous nature of our dependent variable, we use logit regression, and report robust standard errors adjusted for clustering on the administrative unit. In Table 1 we evaluate the first hypothesis that rainfall anomalies increase the risk of communal conflict. We start by looking at negative rainfall anomalies. The results reported
Conclusions
This study is the first large-N analysis across a large number of countries over time of the impact of climate variability on communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Utilizing a spatially disaggregated research design and drawing on new geo-referenced event data on armed conflicts, we statistically explore how rainfall anomalies are associated with communal conflict. The results suggest that communal conflict is more likely in dry years, which is consistently shown in two alternative measures
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank Erik Melander, Halvard Buhaug, Julian Wucherpfennig, Allan Dafoe, the Editor of the journal and three anonymous reviewers for their very useful comments, and Ralph Sundberg and Mihai Crocu for help with data. Financial support from the Swedish International Development Agency and the Swedish Center for National Disaster Science (CNDS) is gratefully acknowledged. The authors are listed in alphabetical order, equal authorship implied.
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