doi:10.1016/j.peva.2004.02.003
Copyright © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
An Equivalent Random Method with hyper-exponential service
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John F. Shortle
Systems Engineering and Operations Research, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, MS 4A6, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA
Received 17 March 2003;
Revised 18 February 2004.
Available online 27 April 2004.
Abstract
The Equivalent Random Method (ERM) has been widely used to predict blocking probabilities at overflow service stations. The method assumes that service times follow an exponential distribution. While this may be a reasonable assumption for voice traffic, it is not a good assumption for dial-up Internet traffic, where service times typically have a coefficient of variation (standard deviation/mean) greater than 1. In this paper, we give a modified ERM for two-term hyper-exponential service distributions. The method is based on an efficient algorithm to estimate the peakedness of the overflow process of an M/H2/S/S queue. Finally, we investigate the accuracy of the modified ERM using simulation and also compare systems with hyper-exponential service to systems with heavy-tailed service.
Author Keywords: Equivalent Random Method; Internet traffic; Overflow queues; Queues with blocking
Fig. 1. A typical overflow configuration: calls which are blocked at the primary trunks overflow to a common set of secondary trunks.
Fig. 2. An overflow configuration stochastically similar to Fig. 1.
Fig. 3. A contour plot of (zhyper−zexp)/zexp. The figure only shows values for which blocking at the primary station is greater than 0.01%.
Fig. 4. A contour plot of ρ(E,S). The figure only shows values for which blocking at the primary station is greater than 0.01%.
Fig. 5. A contour plot of (bhyper−bexp)/bexp—that is, a comparison of the blocking probabilities using hyper-exponential service and exponential service.
Fig. 6. Comparison of peakedness of overflow process of M/G/S/S and M/H2/S/S queues, where H2 is a hyper-exponential fit to G. The 95% confidence intervals (not shown) are all within ±0.02 of the mean values shown.
Fig. 7. Comparison of blocking probabilities on overflow trunks.
Table 2. Two-term hyper-exponential fit to three distributions
