Farmers' perceptions of agricultural land use changes in Nepal and their major drivers

Highlights

• Evaluated drivers of agricultural land use change in Nepal using farmers' perception.

• Farmers perceived that socioeconomic factors are the crucial driver.

• High population growth is the primary factor underlying these changes.

• Government policies are a salient indicator of agricultural land use change.

Abstract

Historical trends show that the total area of agricultural land in Nepal has changed markedly over time, but few studies have addressed the causative drivers underlying this change. Evaluating the perceptions of farmers is an effective tool for addressing this issue because it reflects the full range of drivers associated with changes in land use. This study utilizes historical agricultural area, population, and climate data for 1910–2010, combined with a series of applied household surveys and focus group discussions to assess farmers' perceptions of these changes and identify the major drivers. The paired t-test was employed to measure differences between various groups of drivers. The total area of agricultural land in Nepal has expanded rapidly since 1910, more intensively in the southern (Tarai) and central (Hill) ecological regions of the country, and has decreased slightly near large cities in recent decades. Farmers’ perceptions show that socioeconomic variables were considered to be the crucial drivers of changes in agricultural land use. The three other major drivers were grouped as: neighborhood, climate–topography, and policy drivers. In particular, farmers pointed to the high level of population growth (93.96%) as the main factor underlying the changes, and the majority of drivers are associated with this variable. Access to roads (77.36%), urbanization (33.77%), government policies (23.58%), and remittance impact (16.79%) are other notable triggering variables. The paired t-test results equating variables from different groups of drivers and ecological regions indicate varied significance (p-values range from 0.004 to 0.983). Our analysis confirms that the synergy between social and natural observations can be integrated to obtain research findings that identify scientific and social issues. The interplay between the drivers should be emphasized in developing plans for sustainable agricultural land use management.

Introduction

The daily lives of farmers as well as their livelihoods are directly linked to the land (Rapsomanikis, 2015) as it provides the platform for agricultural activities and production. Historical studies quantifying agricultural land use globally have revealed an overall increase over time (Ramankutty and Foley, 1999a); data show that the total area of agricultural land cultivated globally increased from 3 million km² to 15 million km² between 1700 and 2000 (Klein Goldewijk et al., 2011). Increasing rates of agricultural land use were recorded between 1850 and 1992 in a historical study of North American countries (Ramankutty and Foley, 1999b), and the area of cultivated land has decreased by around 18% across Europe between 1950 and 2010 (Fuchs et al., 2013). Historical studies have also demonstrated an upward trend in agricultural land use in Asia generally, and in the Himalayas in particular, both at regional and national levels (Li et al., 2016; Tian et al., 2014). At the regional level, forest cover has been converted primarily to cultivated land over long time periods, while some farmland has been converted to built-up areas, particularly between 1970 and 2000 (Fuchs et al., 2013; Ramankutty and Foley, 1999b; Tian et al., 2014).

Nepal has a mountainous landscape, and its economy is dependent mainly on agriculture (Paudel et al., 2016b), with 65.6% of the population having some involvement (MoAD, 2013). Landscape diversity in Nepal plays a major role in the differential addition of economic value. Each landscape type usually has multiple functions (Pröbstl-Haider et al., 2016), with low-lying and gently sloping zones being used mainly for agricultural activities (Li et al., 2016), but also as built-up areas and for other purposes. Because of this functional variety, landscape quality within Nepal historically has been influenced by different drivers, including government policy, location, connectivity, prioritization, and socioeconomic value (Paudel et al., 2016a). In order to address current concerns about changes in land use, this study examines the expansion, abandonment, and conversion of agricultural land across Nepal, as well as changes in the intensity of agricultural land use. Historical reconstruction-based studies of Nepalese agriculture have shown that agricultural land use was 15,119 km² in 1910 (Paudel et al., 2018) and reached a peak of 43,879 km² in 2010 (Paudel et al., 2017). A further study based on aerial photographs showed that the area was 40,019 km² in 1978 (LRMP, 1986), and satellite-images revealed that it had reached 43,910 km² by 2010 (Uddin et al., 2015). These historical and more recent studies suggest that since 1910, the area of agricultural land has expanded rapidly. In addition, most land use and land cover studies that address the long-term status of small-scale watershed areas and river basins have also identified an increasing trend in agricultural land use (Khanal, 2002; Khatri Chhetri, 2012; Paudel et al., 2016a). Studies have highlighted slight reductions in agricultural land use close to large cities over recent decades (Rimal, 2013; Thapa and Murayama, 2009) due to agricultural land being built on (Rimal et al., 2017b). The area of cultivated land within the Kathmandu Valley has also declined, decreasing by around 64 km² between 1976 and 2015 (Rimal et al., 2017a), while in Pokhara it has fallen by almost 29 km², from 350 km² to 321 km² between 1990 and 2013 (Rimal et al., 2015). Data also show a trend in abandonment of agricultural land in some hilly and mountainous areas, especially from the 1990s onward (Khanal and Watanabe, 2006; Paudel et al., 2014). One recent study of the Andhi Khola Watershed in western Nepal showed that agricultural land use declined by about 19% between 1999 and 2014, due chiefly to land abandonment (Chidi, 2016).

Drivers of changes in agricultural land use vary, based on different geographical locations. One study noted that urban expansion is a key driver of changes in agricultural land use in the Three Gorges region of China (Zhang et al., 2012). Similarly, a decline in cultivated land use due to urbanization has been reported in Nepal in recent decades (Rimal et al., 2017a). One further study addressing changes in farmland in the Himalayas of southwestern China showed that urbanization, industrialization, and increased off-farm wage income were crucial drivers, particularly of cropland abandonment (Yan et al., 2016a). Similar variables were also shown to play a major role in changes to agricultural land use in a case study conducted in the hilly region of southeastern China (Zhao et al., 2012). A parallel situation should be found in some hilly and mountainous areas of Nepal. A recent, secondary, variable-based study analyzed the potential drivers of land use and land cover changes (LUCC) in Nepal, including agricultural land use, and concluded that climate change, natural disasters, population growth, migration, urbanization, socioeconomic development, and government policies are all keys to understanding this variation (Li et al., 2017). A further small-scale study conducted within the Koshi River Basin showed that high population growth rate, a type of socioeconomic driver, has been most important in terms of both expansion and contraction of cropland cover (Paudel et al., 2016a). Similarly, research on the mountainous region of western Nepal concluded that changes in agricultural land use (including abandonment) in recent years have been primarily driven by population structure, accessibility, market economics, livelihood strategies, labor migration, and increasing market centralization and urbanization (Khanal and Watanabe, 2006).

The majority of previous studies in this area have focused on changes in agricultural land use, and some have also addressed the potential drivers of this variation using secondary variables (Li et al., 2017; Paudel et al., 2016a). However, the major reasons for agricultural land use changes, as perceived by farmers, have received less attention, reflecting a general lack of concern about this perspective within Nepal. This study aims to fill the research gap by addressing farmers' perceptions of the issue. Although decisions taken by landowners might not align with scientific modeling of changes in agricultural land use, appropriate management schemes, and the processes of sustainable land management, these individuals can articulate their true feelings and experiences, often gained over long periods of time at a single geographical location (Pröbstl-Haider et al., 2016). We argue that it is very important to involve and support farmers in decision-making processes, particularly while implementing agriculture-related policies. Farmers can also offer their perceptions regarding the key drivers of rapid changes in agricultural land use and act as experts for developing appropriate policies that need local approval. The main aims of this study are, therefore, to understand changes in agricultural land use within Nepal and to characterize farmers’ perceptions regarding these long-term variations. Such a characterization will aid in accurately identifying the major drivers of agricultural land use changes over recent decades and suggest national policy improvements in the context of sustainable land management. The results of the study will also provide a basis for promoting a better economic status and more sustainable livelihoods for farmers in Nepal.