Original Research
Development of a Risk Score Based on Aortic Calcification to Predict 1-Year Mortality After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcmg.2018.03.018Get rights and content
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Abstract

Objectives

The aim of this study was to develop a new scoring system based on thoracic aortic calcification (TAC) to predict 1-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality.

Background

A calcified aorta is often associated with poor prognosis after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). A risk score encompassing aortic calcification may be valuable in identifying poor TAVR responders.

Methods

The C4CAPRI (4 Cities for Assessing CAlcification PRognostic Impact) multicenter study included a training cohort (1,425 patients treated using TAVR between 2010 and 2014) and a contemporary test cohort (311 patients treated in 2015). TAC was measured by computed tomography pre-TAVR. CAPRI risk scores were based on the linear predictors of Cox models including TAC in addition to comorbidities and demographic, atherosclerotic disease and cardiac function factors. CAPRI scores were constructed and tested in 2 independent cohorts.

Results

Cardiovascular and all-cause mortality at 1 year was 13.0% and 17.9%, respectively, in the training cohort and 8.2% and 11.8% in the test cohort. The inclusion of TAC in the model improved prediction: 1-cm3 increase in TAC was associated with a 6% increase in cardiovascular mortality and a 4% increase in all-cause mortality. The predicted and observed survival probabilities were highly correlated (slopes >0.9 for both cardiovascular and all-cause mortality). The model’s predictive power was fair (AUC 68% [95% confidence interval [CI]: 64% to 72%]) for both cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The model performed similarly in the training and test cohorts.

Conclusions

The CAPRI score, which combines the TAC variable with classical prognostic factors, is predictive of 1-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Its predictive performance was confirmed in an independent contemporary cohort. CAPRI scores are highly relevant to current practice and strengthen the evidence base for decision making in valvular interventions. Its routine use may help prevent futile procedures.

Key Words

aortic stiffness
mortality
outcome
risk stratification
TAVR

Abbreviations and Acronyms

AS
aortic stenosis
AUC
area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve
CI
confidence interval
COPD
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
CT
computed tomography
GFR
glomerular filtration rate estimated by the Cockcroft formula
HF
heart failure
IDI
integrated discrimination improvement
HR
hazard ratio
LVEF
left ventricular ejection fraction
ROC
receiver-operating characteristic
TAC
thoracic aortic calcification
TAVR
transcatheter aortic valve replacement

Cited by (0)

All authors have reported that they have no relationships relevant to the contents of this paper to disclose.