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Journal of Business Venturing
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doi:10.1016/j.jbusvent.2008.02.003    
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Copyright © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An investigation of hindsight bias in nascent venture activity

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Gavin Cassara, Corresponding Author Contact Information, E-mail The Corresponding Author and Justin Craigb, 1, E-mail The Corresponding Author

aThe Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6365, USA

bFaculty of Business, Technology and Sustainable Development, Bond University, Gold Coast, QLD 4229, Australia


Received 1 August 2006; 
revised 1 February 2008; 
accepted 1 February 2008. 
Available online 16 May 2008.

Abstract

We posit that individuals who are actively engaged in activities to develop their own venture will exhibit hindsight bias when recalling their startup experiences. We observe that those who fail to develop their startup activity into an operating business demonstrate substantial hindsight bias concerning the probability of venture formation. In particular, the recalled probability of success, reported after their decision to quit, is lower than the probability of success solicited during the nascent process. We argue that the systematic distortion of the past has important implications for individuals involved in the venturing process. Specifically, we suggest that these individuals are at risk of overestimating their chances of success when starting future nascent activity if they do not correct for their optimistic tendencies. The evidence from this study suggests it is important to recognize that what nascent entrepreneurs believe they experienced, and what they actually experienced, may not be equivalent.

Keywords: Learning; Hindsight bias; Retrospective recall; Nascent activity

Article Outline

1. Executive summary
2. Introduction
3. Theory development
3.1. Hindsight bias
3.2. The nascent process
4. Hypotheses
5. Methods
5.1. Sample
5.2. Variables
5.2.1. Expectations
5.2.2. Independent variables
5.3. Sample beliefs concerning learning and future nascent activity
6. Results
6.1. Test of hindsight bias
6.2. Cross-sectional differences in hindsight bias
6.3. Comparison of own expectations with similar nascent activities
7. Discussion
8. Conclusion
Acknowledgements
References

Corresponding Author Contact InformationCorresponding author. Tel.: +1 215 8982023.
1 Tel.: +61 7 55951161.

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Journal of Business Venturing
Article in Press, Corrected Proof - Note to users
 
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