Elsevier

Journal of Biomedical Informatics

Volume 57, October 2015, Pages 399-414
Journal of Biomedical Informatics

Transformation of potential medical demand in China: A system dynamics simulation model

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbi.2015.08.015Get rights and content
Under a Creative Commons license
open access

Highlights

  • SD model was firstly used to analyze and predict PMD problem with historical data.

  • SD model overcame limitations of statistical analysis, policy effect was tested.

  • The results were in accordance with previous studies and the reality.

  • Adjusting the number of hospitals and CHSs would advance PMD transformation.

  • Improving the health insurance level would advance PMD transformation.

Abstract

Objectives

The increasing of potential medical demand in China has threatened the health of the population, the medical equity, accessibility to medical services, and has impeded the development of Chinese health delivery system. This study aims to understand the mechanism of the increasing potential medical demand and find some solutions.

Methods

We constructed a system dynamics model to analyze and simulate this problem, to predict the influences of health policies on the actual percentage of patients not seeking medical care (adjusting the quantity structure of hospitals and community health systems (CHSs), adjusting outpatient prices, and adjusting the level of health insurance).

Results

Decreasing the number of hospitals, increasing the number of CHSs, and raising the proportion of health insurance compensation would effectively increase the transformation of potential medical demand. But currently, changes of the outpatient prices didn’t play a role in the transformation of potential medical demand.

Conclusions

Combined with validation analysis and model simulation, we suggest some possible solutions. The main factors causing potential medical demand are accessibility to medical services and proportion of health insurance compensation. Thus, adjusting the number of hospitals and CHSs and increasing the proportion of health insurance compensation should decrease the actual percentage of patients not seeking medical care and accelerate the transformation of potential medical demand, which deserved being concerned in policymaking.

Keywords

Potential medical demand
System dynamics model
Health policy

Cited by (0)

1

The two authors made equal contributions to this study.