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International Journal of Industrial Organization
Volume 26, Issue 6, November 2008, Pages 1257-1273
 
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doi:10.1016/j.ijindorg.2007.12.007    How to Cite or Link Using DOI (Opens New Window)
Copyright © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sales: Tests of theories on causality and timingstar, open

Peter Berck1, a, Jennifer Browna, Jeffrey M. PerloffCorresponding Author Contact Information, 1, a, E-mail The Corresponding Author and Sofia Berto Villas-Boas1, a

aDepartment of Agricultural & Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, United States

Received 27 June 2007; 
revised 19 December 2007; 
accepted 20 December 2007. 
Available online 10 January 2008.

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Abstract

Modern theories of sales make conflicting predictions about the temporal pattern of sales, which we test using grocery scanner data. We examine both frozen orange juice, which consumers can store, and refrigerated orange juice, which is more perishable, to determine what role—if any—durability plays in the pattern of sales. We examine (1) whether sales are more frequent for national brands than for private label brands; (2) whether manufacturers, retailers, or others determine sales; (3) the distribution of prices; (4) whether sales and their effects differ for durable (frozen) or nondurable (refrigerated) products; and (5) the temporal ordering of sales. We use correlations, runs tests, probit regressions, and vector-autoregressive analyses to test our hypotheses. Some of our more striking findings are that retailers rather than manufacturers determine sales, private labels have sales as often as national brands, and that a sale of a national brand is more likely to “cause” sales of other products than is a sale of a private label product.

Keywords: Sales; Price promotions; Causality

JEL classification codes: L11; L81; M31

Article Outline

1. Sales theories
2. Data
3. Testing hypotheses 1–4: frequencies, correlations, and distributions
3.1. Hypothesis 1: frequencies of sales
3.2. Hypothesis 2: correlations of sales across stores
3.3. Hypotheses 3 and 4: price distributions
4. Testing hypothesis 5: timing of sales
4.1. Hypotheses 5A–5C: runs tests and counts
4.2. Hypothesis 5D: probit analyses
4.3. Hypotheses 5A–5F: temporal ordering of sales
4.4. Granger causality tests
4.5. Impulse response functions
5. Conclusions
Appendix
Appendix A. Simultaneous sales
Appendix B. Trends and unit roots of price data
References



 
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