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Futures
Volume 37, Issue 7, September 2005, Pages 745-766
Complexity and the limits of knowledge
 
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doi:10.1016/j.futures.2004.11.003    How to Cite or Link Using DOI (Opens New Window)
Copyright © 2005 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

Modelling and prediction in a complex world

Michael Battya, E-mail The Corresponding Author and Paul M. Torrensb, Corresponding Author Contact Information, E-mail The Corresponding Author

aCentre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London, 1 to 19 Torrington Place, London WC1E 6BT, UK bDepartment of Geography, University of Utah, 260 S. Central Campus Dr., Rm. 270, Salt Lake City, UT 84112-9155, USA

Available online 19 March 2005.

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Abstract

A complex system is an entity, coherent in some recognisable way but whose elements, interactions, and dynamics generate structures and admit surprise and novelty that cannot be defined a priori. Complex systems are more than the sum of their parts, and a consequence of this is that any model of their structure is necessarily incomplete and partial. Models thus represent simplifications in which salient parts and processes are simulated, and given this definition, many models will exist of any particular system. In this chapter, we explore the impact of this complexity on validating models of such systems. We begin with definitions and then identify key issues as being concerned with the characterisation of system equilibrium, system environment, and the way systems and their elements extend and scale. As our perspective on these issues changes, then so do our models with implications for their testing and validation. We argue that changes in the meaning of validity, posed by the use to which such models are to be put, are central to this debate, drawing these ideas together as conclusions about the limits posed to prediction in complex systems.

Article Outline

1. Defining complexity, modelling complexity
2. Traditional conceptions of theorising and modelling
3. The problem of closure
4. The road to simulation: artificial systems as virtual laboratories
5. Modellers, the modelled, and users: purposes and roles
6. The limits to prediction
Acknowledgements
References



Futures
Volume 37, Issue 7, September 2005, Pages 745-766
Complexity and the limits of knowledge
 
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