Food security policy options for China: Lessons from other countries

doi:10.1016/j.foodpol.2014.06.008

Food Policy

Volume 49, Part 1, December 2014, Pages 50-58

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2014.06.008 Get rights and content

Highlights

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Slow adjustment to declining farm competitiveness is raising inequality in China.
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The government is concerned that greater inequality will contribute to social unrest.
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Model results show food import restrictions would undermine food security.
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By contrast, more investment in agricultural R&D would boost national food security.
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Such investments and generic social safety nets would ease social unrest at low cost.

Abstract

As China becomes more industrial and urbanized, it is likely to become more dependent over time on imports of (especially land-intensive) farm products, most notably livestock feedstuffs. If farmers are slow to adjust to their declining competitiveness, for example by obtaining off-farm employment, the farm–nonfarm household income gap may increase. A decline in food self-sufficiency may be perceived as undermining national food security, and a persistent farm–nonfarm income gap as contributing to social unrest. In these circumstances, what offsetting or compensating policy options should the government consider for ensuring adequate long-term food security and less income inequality? This paper evaluates China’s historical record since 1980 and then projects China’s economy to 2030, using the GTAP global economy-wide model. It draws on past policy experiences of both China and other economies to evaluate prospective interventions by government to address food security and income inequality concerns. The potential effects of some of those are estimated for 2030, again using the GTAP model. The paper concludes by suggesting alternative ways to achieve the fundamental objectives of national food security and less rural–urban income inequality, namely via generic social safety nets and improved rural infrastructure.

Section snippets

Indicators of national food security

It is often thought that a populous country such as China could only be food-secure if it produces its own food. However, food security is not synonymous with food self-sufficiency. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization defines food security as the ideal in which all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. Improving food security thus requires

China’s historical record since 1980

Despite its rapid industrialization and urbanization, China has managed to remain very close to self-sufficient in food until very recently. Indeed over the two decades to 2011, the share of farm products in China’s total imports has declined rather than grown. The country’s average annual agricultural and food self-sufficiency was never more than 1 point away from 100% in each of the decades of the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and 1990s (Sandri et al., 2006). It was still 98% in 2000–2004, and 97% in

Market and food security prospects for China to 2030

Given the importance of China’s agricultural and food sector to both the national and global economies, projecting China’s food markets can best be done with the help of a global, forward-looking economy-wide model. A national model would be inadequate as it would not take into account the impact of economic growth in the rest of the world on China. We employ the widely used and well-documented GTAP model of the global economy (Hertel, 1997) and the latest available Version 8.1 of the GTAP

Food security policy implications for China

The projected decline in China’s food self-sufficiency may concern some groups in China, notwithstanding the fact that China’s access to food is projected above to be far greater in 2030 than in 2007. One or more of the following policy responses, including market-distorting measures and research investment measures, may be triggered by that concern. We evaluate these in this section and find not all such policies would boost most households’ economic access to food and hence national food

In search of more-efficient and more-equitable food security measures: a role for generic social protection instruments?

Fortunately for China, there are politically feasible alternative policy instruments to market-distorting policies that are more efficient and effective in improving national food security, reducing the gap between farm and nonfarm household incomes, and reducing extreme poverty. The information and communication technology (ICT) revolution recently has made it far cheaper and easier than in the past to target income supplements, as and when needed, to the poorest and hence most food-insecure

Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge helpful comments from two referees and financial support from the World Bank and Australia’s Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation. The views expressed are the author’s alone and not necessarily those of the World Bank or RIRDC.

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View full text

Food security policy options for China: Lessons from other countries

Highlights

Abstract

Section snippets

Indicators of national food security

China’s historical record since 1980

Market and food security prospects for China to 2030

Food security policy implications for China

In search of more-efficient and more-equitable food security measures: a role for generic social protection instruments?

Acknowledgments

World Dev.

Transport Policy

China Econ. Rev.

Econ. Model.

Food Policy

J. Policy Model.

J. Dev. Econ.

Regional Sci. Urban Econ.

Agric. Econ.

China Econ. Rev.

Cash Transfers, Food Consumption, and Nutrition’, Ch. 8 in their Social Protection and Cash Transfers to Strengthen Families Affected by HIV and AIDS

Distorted agricultural incentives and economic development: Asia’s experience

World Econ.

Distortions to agricultural incentives in Australia since World War II

Econ. Rec.

Measuring distortions to agricultural incentives, revisited

World Trade Rev.

Australia and New Zealand’, Ch. 5 in distortions to agricultural incentives: a global perspective, 1955–2007

China’s Silent Army

When China runs out of farmers’, Ch. 17 in food or consequences: food security and global stability

Returns to public investments in the less-favored areas of India and China

Am. J. Agric. Econ.