Food security in the United Kingdom: External supply risks

Highlights

• Selected factors associated with the notion of UK food security are examined.

• A quantitative assessment of the security of external food supply is undertaken.

• This assessment is based on two indices used in the energy security literature.

• UK food security may have worsened slightly but external supply risk is very low.

Abstract

This paper examines some of the factors that contribute to an understanding of the notion of food security for a developed country like the UK. These include the level of self-sufficiency, the agricultural sector’s dependence on imported inputs, and openness of the economy. An interesting parallel between the food security debate and that of security of energy supplies is also explored. A quantitative assessment of the security of external food supply, based on indices borrowed from the recent literature on energy security, shows that whilst the position of the UK may have worsened slightly, the level of external supply risk is very low. In consequence, security of food supply in the UK does not appear to be an issue that warrants alarm or undue concern, although the debate is likely to rumble on.

Introduction

Food security in the UK has once again risen to the top of the agenda. Interest was heightened by the sudden and sharp increase in world food prices in 2007–08, but concerns had been raised earlier (Defra, 2006). In response, a comprehensive assessment of UK food security was undertaken (Defra, 2009a, Defra, 2009b). A number of factors are adjudged to pose a threat to food security in the 21st century, e.g. climate change, oil shortages, increased use of bio-fuels, rapidly growing demand in China and India, embargos and international terrorism. Thus, whilst food prices on world markets have subsided, concerns about the ability of the UK to maintain an adequate supply of food have not. Food security is not a new issue. In some developing countries it can still be, regrettably, a matter of life and death, but in developed countries, like the UK, domestic food security is generally much less of a concern.¹ Its periodic rise up the agenda is usually in response to a shock or significant event that appears to undermine what are otherwise stable food markets. Such an event was the recent escalation in world food prices and a similar situation arose in the mid-1970s when neo-Malthusian concerns were reawakened by the ‘world food crisis’ (see, for example, Ritson, 1980).

The Common Agricultural Policy of the EU, which has shaped agricultural policy in the UK for the past 40 years, featured security of food supply as one of its original objectives, but a definition was carefully avoided. There are, however, a number of definitions in the literature. That used by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations is of “a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (FAO, 2012). A similar definition is used by Defra (2009a, p. 6): “ensuring the availability of, and access to, affordable, safe and nutritious food sufficient for an active lifestyle, for all, at all times.” A threat to food security may arise in one of two ways: either through higher prices, making food unaffordable for a significant number of people, or through food being unavailable at any price, for example as a result of an embargo.

Defra (2009b, p. 80) notes that while food security and energy security are distinct, “there are themes common to both …, [including] the diversity and reliability of supplies and supply routes …”.² Indeed, there is an interesting parallel between the food security debate and that of security of energy supplies. In commenting on the latter, Löschel et al. (2010, p. 1607) note that whilst some people argue for “reducing dependence on foreign energy sources, others suggest expanding and diversifying import channels”, whilst similarly Cohen et al. (2011, p. 3) note that “Rising imports as a share of total consumption is thus taken to imply lower energy security …” These sentiments could apply equally to the issue of food security. The parallel continues in that Löschel et al. (2010, p. 1607) cite three major reasons why “the concept of ‘energy security’ is exploited in various ways by different interest groups. … (i) it concerns many aspects which are vital to the major economies, (ii) it is a complex and interrelated issue and (iii) it lacks a well-defined idea behind it, potentially involving more than just one scientific discipline.” In terms of the food security debate, Defra (2006, p. 6) notes that “Discussions around food security can be confusing because … for a developed economy like the UK, national food security is multi-faceted and complex in which different aspects are inter-linked”. This commonality is explored in the current paper by assessing external supply risks through the application of two indices which have featured in recent literature on energy security. In so doing, the paper directly addresses a question raised by Defra (2008, p. 29), “How diverse and secure are our [food] imports?” The outcome is a quantitative measure of security of external supply, which contributes to the on-going debate surrounding food security in the UK.³

The analysis undertaken in this paper is partial in nature, in that only some of the factors that have a bearing on food security are examined. Food security is a large and nebulous issue that defies comprehensive summary measures. The focus here is on selected aspects of the debate, namely, self-sufficiency in food and import dependency (Section 2), the growing ‘openness’ of the UK economy (Section 3), and the application of the two security of external supply indices (Section 4). Some concluding remarks are offered in the final section.