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Food and Chemical Toxicology
Volume 45, Issue 11, November 2007, Pages 2086-2096
 
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doi:10.1016/j.fct.2007.06.037    
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Copyright © 2007 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

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Probabilistic modelling of European consumer exposure to cosmetic products

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C. McNamaraa, Corresponding Author Contact Information, E-mail The Corresponding Author, D. Rohana, D. Goldenb, M. Gibneyc, B. Halld, S. Tozere, B. Saffordf, M. Coroamag, M.C. Leneveu-Ducheminh and W. Steilingi

aCREMe Software Ltd., Innovation Centre, O’Reilly Institute, Trinity College, Dublin 2, Ireland

bTrinity Centre for High Performance Computing, Trinity College, Dublin 2, Ireland

cAgriculture and Food Centre, Food Science and Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland

dL’Oréal, Worldwide Safety Evaluation, River Plaza 25-29 quai Aulagnier, 92600 Asnières-sur-Seine, France

eProcter & Gamble, Central Product Safety, P&G Technical Centres Ltd., Whitehall Lane, Egham, Surrey TW20 9NW, UK

fUnilever, Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre, Colworth Park, Sharnbrook, Beds MK44 1LQ, UK

gColipa, Avenue Hermann-Debroux 15A, B-1160 Brussels, Belgium

hBeiersdorf AG, Unnastrasse 48, 20245 Hamburg, Germany

iHenkel KGaA, Corporate SHE and Product Safety–Human Safety Assessment, Henkelstr. 67, 40191 Dusseldorf, Germany


Received 1 February 2007; 
accepted 1 June 2007. 
Available online 7 July 2007.

Abstract

In this study, we describe the statistical analysis of the usage profile of the European population to seven cosmetic products. The aim of the study was to construct a reliable model of exposure of the European population from use of the selected products: body lotion, shampoo, deodorant spray, deodorant non-spray, facial moisturiser, lipstick and toothpaste.

The first step in this process was to gather reliable data on consumer usage patterns of the products. These data were sourced from a combination of market information databases and a controlled product use study by the trade association Colipa. The market information study contained a large number of subjects, in total 44,100 households and 18,057 habitual users (males and females) of the studied products, in five European countries.

The data sets were then combined to generate a realistic distribution of frequency of use of each product, combined with distribution of the amount of product used at each occasion using the CREMe software. A Monte Carlo method was used to combine the data sets. This resulted in a new model of European exposure to cosmetic products being constructed.

Keywords: Cosmetics; Exposure; Probabilistic analysis; Monte Carlo; Statistical population modelling

Article Outline

1. Introduction
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Input data sources
2.1.1. ETCD
2.1.2. ISC
2.1.3. Europanel
2.2. Analysis of the ISC data
2.2.1. Demographic categories
2.2.2. ISC outliers
2.3. ISC correlations
2.3.1. Frequency – amount used correlations
2.4. Model input data
2.4.1. Generating the product usage database by combining the amount of product per use with the ETCD database
2.4.2. Parametric versus non-parametric
2.4.3. Effect of correlations and generation of correlated amount values
2.4.4. Entering data into the model summary
2.5. Generating and running the model
2.5.1. Simulating GB exposure
2.5.2. Europanel scaling factor for GB
2.5.3. Simulation engine
2.5.4. Description of the CREMe model details
2.5.5. Simulating exposure beyond GB (Denmark, Germany, France and Spain)
2.5.6. Scaling factors from the Europanel data
2.5.7. Entering bodyweight information for each population
2.6. EU 15 member states (EU 15) exposure model
3. Results
3.1. Sensitivity analysis
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Conflict of interest statement
References





Corresponding Author Contact InformationCorresponding author. Tel.: +353 (0)1 896 8451; fax: +353 (0)1 679 8039.

Food and Chemical Toxicology
Volume 45, Issue 11, November 2007, Pages 2086-2096
 
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