New nuclear power in the UK: A strategy for energy security?
Introduction
Energy security has risen up the global political agenda during the past few years. There are many reasons for this: rapid increases in oil and gas prices, heightened awareness of terrorism, the war in Iraq, and the blackouts that have hit several electricity networks.
The key threats are the price of energy and its availability. Some threats can disrupt the provision of energy to consumers and businesses (power blackouts; fuel blockades) whilst perhaps the more significant affect the price of energy (tension in Middle East; lack of UK onshore gas storage). This paper argues that much policy discussion is conducted without a clear idea of the dimensions of energy security and their relative significance, and that such an analysis is vital to a rational, mature energy policy.
The renewed interest in nuclear power as a central part of the UK's energy strategy became clear in a speech by the then Prime Minister Tony Blair. Announcing the 2006 Energy Review, Blair emphasised what he saw as the twin concerns for energy policy—climate change and energy security: ‘Round the world you can sense feverish re-thinking. Energy prices have risen. Energy supply is under threat. Climate change is producing a sense of urgency’ (Blair, 2005). A few sentences later, he added that the Energy Review would ‘include specifically the issue of whether we facilitate the development of a new generation of nuclear power stations’ (Blair, 2005).
In this paper, we provide a framework to analyse the possible role of new nuclear in enhancing security, including of course the possibility that new nuclear could increase insecurity in some cases. Within this, there are several related issues that are important in the energy security debate. These include the price, availability and diversity of energy sources from foreign sources (Kalicki and Goldwyn, 2005), diversity within those energy sources, international supply routes for energy sources, the resilience of domestic energy infrastructures (Farrell et al., 2004), threats due to terrorism (Yergin, 2006), and wider effects such as vulnerability to the impacts of climate change (Barnett, 2001).
This paper is organised in three parts. The first is a detailed examination of energy security, focusing on various threats to security and their potential and actual impacts. The second part considers a strategy that is often put forward to counteract these threats: diversity. The third part conducts a largely qualitative assessment of the extent to which new nuclear power could help mitigate these threats.
Section snippets
Unpacking energy security
Energy security is frequently invoked in support of various policies and technologies. Yet we rarely hear a mature, reasoned and comprehensive debate on the nature and severity of the different sources of threat to our energy security. Here, we have sought to bring together all of the dimensions of energy security in an integrated framework. Our aim is to see the ‘big picture’ of energy security, and in doing so enable a more effective analysis of the role that different policies and
Security and diversity
In the light of this analysis of four groups of threats to energy security, it is clear that the government has put forward only a partial analysis of energy security in its recent policy statements—particularly the 2007 consultation on new nuclear power (Department of Trade and Industry, 2007a, Department of Trade and Industry, 2007b, Department of Trade and Industry, 2007c). This emphasises those dimensions that have had small impacts on UK energy security in recent years (i.e. lack of
Can new nuclear enhance security?
An assessment of the likely impact of a new programme of nuclear power on UK energy security needs to analyse its ability to address each of the four groups of security threat that we have outlined. In the following discussion, a distinction is made between the replacement of the UK's current nuclear fleet and an expanded programme that would result in a larger role for nuclear power. The latter strategy has been increasingly mentioned in recent debates, including in speeches by the Secretary
Conclusions
This paper has shown that a new nuclear power programme may be able to help reduce some specific energy security risks. These include some impact on the share of fossil fuels in the UK energy mix, thereby reducing the exposure of the UK economy to rapid increases in fossil fuel prices. They also include a contribution to technological disparity in an electricity system in which nuclear power retains a modest share alongside a wide range of other options. The impact on these risks (and many
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge financial support from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC). Thanks also Gordon Mackerron and Jonathan Stern for comments on previous drafts of this paper.
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