Elsevier

Energy

Volume 36, Issue 11, November 2011, Pages 6520-6528
Energy

Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.09.014Get rights and content

Abstract

Passenger vehicles are the main consumers of gasoline in China. We established a bottom-up model which focuses on the simulation of energy consumptions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation effects of five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, strengthening fuel consumption rate (FCR) limits, vehicle downsizing and promoting electric vehicle (EV) penetration were evaluated. Based on the combination of these measures, the fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were analyzed. Under reference scenario with no measures implemented, the fuel consumptions and life cycle GHG emissions will reach 520 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 2.15 billion tons in 2050, about 8.1 times the level in 2010. However, substantial fuel conservation can be achieved by implementing the measures. By implementing all five measures together, the fuel consumption will reach 138 Mtoe in 2030 and decrease to 126 Mtoe in 2050, which is only 37.1% and 24.3% of the consumption under reference scenario. Similar potential lies in GHG mitigation. The results and scenarios provided references for the Chinese government’s policy-making.

Highlights

► We established a bottom-up model to simulate the fuel consumptions and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. ► Five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, improving fuel efficiency, vehicle downsizing and promoting EV penetration were evaluated. ► The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were provided as references for policy-making.

Introduction

China’s vehicle registration has experienced rapid growth over the past ten years. It increased from 14.5 million in 1999 to 62.8 million in 2009, with annual growth rate of 15.8% [1]. Passenger vehicles, which are defined as vehicles used for passenger transporting with 9 seats or fewer [2], have been growing at the fastest pace among all vehicles. The passenger vehicle registration increased from 6.3 million in 1999 to 45.9 million in 2009, with annual growth rate of 22% [1]. Passenger vehicles are the main consumers of gasoline in China. It is estimated that 48.9 million tons of gasoline were consumed by China’s on-road vehicles (mostly by passenger vehicles) in 2007, accounting for 87% of China’s domestic gasoline consumption [3]. The future trends of fuel consumptions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by passenger vehicles are influenced by many factors including the explosive growth of vehicle registration, vehicle travel distance, the improvement of automotive technology and the government policy orientation. Numerous studies have been conducted to model these factors. Early studies started from around 2000 [4], [5], [6], [7], when China’s vehicle population entered the fast growing period. These studies mainly focused on evaluating the effect of vehicle population growth and vehicle fuel economy improvement on China’s energy demand and GHG emissions. Huo et al. established a bottom-up model to simulate the growth of fuel consumptions and GHG emissions by China’s vehicle fleet and evaluated the potential of fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation by assuming three vehicle registration growth scenarios and three fuel efficiency improvement scenarios. They projected that car registration in China would reach 91, 203 and 464 million in 2020, 2030 and 2050 (under mid vehicle growth scenario). Accordingly, total fuel consumption by cars would reach 68.3, 122.4 and 250.1 million tons in 2020, 2030 and 2050 (under mid vehicle growth and moderate fuel economy scenario). With the increasing pressure of vehicle energy supply, recent studies have evaluated a wider range of mitigation measures [8], [9], [10], [11], [12], [13]. Yan et al. developed a detailed model of energy demand and GHG emissions in China’s road transport sector and examined several reduction measures including private vehicle control, fuel economy regulation, promotion of diesel and gas, fuel tax and biofuel promotion. Ou et al. conducted a scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle use for China’s future road transport. In the perspective of model structure, due to the accumulation of statistics and investigation data, recent studies have been able to develop more detailed models with more evaluating functions. In this study, we focused on the simulation of fuel consumptions and GHG emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. We established an improved bottom-up model with vehicle utility-based classification. Based on the improved model, five fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, strengthening fuel consumption rate (FCR) limits, vehicle downsizing and promoting electric vehicle (EV) penetration were evaluated. The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were provided as references for the Chinese government’s policy-making.

Section snippets

Passenger vehicle classification

In this study, we classified passenger vehicles by vehicle utility and vehicle model. By vehicle utility, passenger vehicles were classified into private passenger vehicles (PPVs), business passenger vehicles (BPVs) and taxis (TXs). PPVs are defined as passenger vehicles owned and used by individuals. BPVs are defined as passenger vehicles owned and used by enterprises and governments. By vehicle model, passenger vehicles were classified into hundreds of model categories, covering most vehicle

Vehicle registration

In this study, we employed vehicle production, import and export to estimate the new registration of all passenger vehicles and then estimated the new registrations of PPVs, BPVs and TXs respectively by dividing the total. The production and sales of highway vehicles in China are compiled and published by China Association of Automotive Manufacturers (CAAM). In the CAAM statistics, passenger vehicles are classified into cars, multi-purpose vehicles, sport-utility vehicles and crossovers. The

Fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation measures

In this part, we presented five fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation measures for passenger vehicle fleet. The measures include constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, strengthening FCR limits, vehicle downsizing and promoting EV penetration. The effects of these measures were simulated by making some assumptions in the model. As comparison, we established a reference scenario with no fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation measures implemented. The

Single measure analysis

Table 2 lists the future trends of passenger vehicle registration, fuel consumptions and life cycle GHG emissions under reference scenario. Under reference scenario, the passenger vehicle registration will reach 615 million in 2050. The proportion of PPVs in all passenger vehicles will increase from 88% in 2010 to 97% in 2050. Correspondingly, the fuel consumptions and life cycle GHG emissions will reach 520 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 2.15 billion tons in 2050, about 8.1 times

Discussion and conclusive remarks

In 2009, the Chinese government endorsed a goal of GHG emissions mitigation that the GHG emissions intensity (the volume of GHG emissions divided by GDP) should be reduced by 40%–45% in 2020 compared with the 2005 level [43]. If using this goal as cap for passenger vehicle fleet, the total life cycle GHG emissions by passenger vehicle fleet should be lower than 244 million tons in 2020. However, even by implementing all five measures concluded in this study, the GHG emissions by passenger

Acknowledgments

The project is supported by the CAERC program (Tsinghua/GM/SAIC-China). The authors would like to thank the reviewers, Dr. Xunmin Ou of Tsinghua University and Benny Zhang of GM for their generous help.

References (43)

  • X. Ou et al.

    Alternative fuel buses currently in use in China: life-cycle fossil energy use, GHG emissions and policy recommendations

    Energy Policy

    (2010)
  • X.M. Ou et al.

    Life-cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions for electricity generation and supply in China

    Applied Energy

    (2011)
  • H. Hao et al.

    Hybrid modeling of China’s vehicle ownership and projection through 2050

    Energy

    (2011)
  • A. Schafer

    The global demand for motorized mobility

    Transportation Research A-Pol

    (1998)
  • D.V. Wagner et al.

    Structure and impacts of fuel economy standards for passenger cars in China

    Energy Policy

    (2009)
  • J.D. Du et al.

    Potential for reducing GHG emissions and energy consumption from implementing the aluminum intensive vehicle fleet in China

    Energy

    (2010)
  • National Bureau of Statistics of PRC

    China statistical yearbook 2010

    (2010)
  • Standardization Administration of PRC

    Motor vehicles and trailers types, terms and definitions (GB 3730.1-2001)

    (2001)
  • National development and reform commission of PRC

    Energy-saving and new energy vehicle technical policy research

    (2009)
  • H. Huo et al.

    Projection of Chinese motor vehicle growth, oil demand, and CO2 emissions through 2050

    Transportation Research Record

    (2007)
  • Ministry of industry and information technology of PRC

    Fuel consumption rate of light duty vehicles

    (2010)
  • Cited by (113)

    • Trends in scrappage and survival of U.S. light-duty vehicles

      2024, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
    • Exploring the potential of hydrogen in decarbonizing China's light-duty vehicle market

      2022, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy
      Citation Excerpt :

      Considering the promising potential of H2 in decarbonizing the transport sector, it is crucial to evaluate the market potential of H2 powered vehicles and their impact on reducing GHG emissions. Most of the studies conducted to investigate the impacts of government regulations on GHG emissions in China were based on scenarios that assume a pre-defined market technology mix and vehicle fuel economy [35–40]. Although it is essential to meet government regulations, automakers produce vehicles that meet consumer demands.

    View all citing articles on Scopus
    View full text