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European Journal of Operational Research
Volume 175, Issue 1, 16 November 2006, Pages 385-398
 
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doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2005.04.041    How to Cite or Link Using DOI (Opens New Window)
Copyright © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stochastics and Statistics

A method for processing the unreliable expert judgments about parameters of probability distributions

Lev V. UtkinCorresponding Author Contact Information, a, E-mail The Corresponding Author

aDepartment of Computer Science, St. Petersburg Forest Technical Academy, Institutski per. 5, 194021 St. Petersburg, Russia

Received 14 November 2002; 
accepted 28 April 2005. 
Available online 2 August 2005.

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Abstract

A method for combining two types of judgments about an object analyzed, which are elicited from experts, is considered in the paper. It is assumed that the probability distribution of a random variable is known, but its parameters may be determined by experts. The method is based on the use of the imprecise probability theory and allows us to take into account the quality of expert judgments, heterogeneity and imprecision of information supplied by experts. An approach for computing “cautious” expert beliefs under condition that the experts are unknown is studied. Numerical examples illustrate the proposed method.

Keywords: Uncertainty modelling; Imprecise probabilities; Upper and lower probabilities; Linear programming; Expert judgments

Article Outline

1. Introduction
2. Preliminary definitions
3. The problem statement
4. Solution of the problem by n = 0
5. Solution of the problem by m = 0
6. General case (m > 0 and n > 0)
7. Cautious expert judgment beliefs
8. Conclusion
Acknowledgements
References

 
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