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Decision Support Systems
Volume 41, Issue 1, November 2005, Pages 84-111
 
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doi:10.1016/j.dss.2004.04.014    How to Cite or Link Using DOI (Opens New Window)
Copyright © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Design and evaluation of an intelligent decision support system for nuclear emergencies

K.N. PapamichailCorresponding Author Contact Information, E-mail The Corresponding Author and S. FrenchE-mail The Corresponding Author

Information Systems Group, Manchester Business School, Booth Street West, Manchester M15 6PB, UK

Received 1 September 2002; 
accepted 1 April 2004. 
Available online 14 July 2004.

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Abstract

Intelligent Decision Support Systems (DSSs) use expert systems technology to enhance the capabilities of decision makers (DMs) in understanding a decision problem and selecting a sound alternative. Because of the people-centred focus of such technologies, it is important not only to assess their technical aspects and overall performance but also to seek the views of potential users. This paper draws from the literature to classify methods for assessing intelligent Decision Support Systems and discusses our experiences in developing, operating and evaluating an intelligent decision support system for nuclear emergencies. The system assists decision makers in the formulation and ranking of alternatives and communicates its recommendation in a natural language form. The application highlights insights from the development process and shortcomings of existing assessment methods. Lessons learned from the study, challenges encountered and recommendations for future practices are discussed.

Keywords: Assessment; Emergency management; ESY; Expert systems; Evaluation; Intelligent Decision Support Systems; Radiation accident; RODOS; Verification and validation methods

Article Outline

1. Introduction
2. ESY—an evaluation system for nuclear emergencies
2.1. The decision-analysis process
2.2. Coarse expert system
2.3. Ranking module
2.4. Fine expert system
3. Evaluation of DSSs and expert systems
3.1. Verification and validation of DSSs and expert systems
3.2. Panel-based evaluations
3.3. Turing tests
3.4. Validating the performance of expert systems and models
3.5. Comparison of a DSS with other systems in the same domain
3.6. Assessing the quality of a decision
3.7. Direct assessment
3.8. Multi-criteria decision analysis techniques
3.9. Questionnaire
3.10. An organisational perspective
4. Technical verification and performance validation of the ESY
4.1. Assessment of the methods employed
4.2. Software verification and testing methods
4.3. Evaluation of the knowledge base
4.4. Documentation
4.5. Comparison to other DSSs
4.6. Direct assessment
5. Subjective assessment of the ESY
5.1. Criteria
5.2. Subjects
5.3. Questionnaire A
5.4. Results of Questionnaire A
5.5. Questionnaire B
5.6. Results of Questionnaire B
5.6.1. Modelling issues
5.6.2. User interface
5.6.3. Positive aspects of the ESY
5.6.4. Suggestions for improvement in the ESY
5.6.5. Potential of the ESY
6. Discussion and lessons learned
7. Conclusions
Acknowledgements
Appendix A. Questionnaire A (statements)
Appendix B. Reliability of Questionnaire A
Appendix C. Validity of Questionnaire A
Appendix D. Questionnaire B (open-ended)
References
Vitae









Decision Support Systems
Volume 41, Issue 1, November 2005, Pages 84-111
 
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