doi:10.1016/j.datak.2006.10.005
Copyright © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Strategies for improving the modeling and interpretability of Bayesian networks
Ádamo L. de Santanaa,
,
, Carlos R. Francêsa,
, Cláudio A. Rochab,
, Solon V. Carvalhoc,
, Nandamudi L. Vijaykumarc,
, Liviane P. Regoa,
and João C. Costaa, 
aLaboratory of High Performance Networks Planning, Federal University of Pará, R. Augusto Côrrea, 01, 66075-110 Belém, PA, Brazil
bUniversity of the Amazon, Av. Alcindo Cacela, 287, 66060-902 Belém, PA, Brazil
cLaboratory of Computing and Applied Mathematics, National Institute for Space Research, Av. dos Astronautas 1758, Jd. Granja, 12227-010 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
Available online 13 November 2006.
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Abstract
One of the main factors for the knowledge discovery success is related to the comprehensibility of the patterns discovered by applying data mining techniques. Amongst which we can point out the Bayesian networks as one of the most prominent when considering the easiness of knowledge interpretation achieved. Bayesian networks, however, present limitations and disadvantages regarding their use and applicability. This paper presents an extension for the improvement of Bayesian networks, treating aspects such as performance, as well as interpretability and use of their results; incorporating genetic algorithms in the model, multivariate regression for structure learning and temporal aspects using Markov chains.
Keywords: Knowledge discovery; Markov chains; Bayesian networks; Multivariate regression
Fig. 1. Bayesian network generated by the MRSL for the base D.
Fig. 2. Bayesian network of the database Asia.
Fig. 3. Naive Bayesian network.
Fig. 4. Bayesian network mounted with the variables Grade and Study.
Table 1.
Database example D

Table 2.
Comparative of the results obtained for the Asia database

Table 3.
Execution times (s) obtained by the algorithms

Table 4.
Execution times (s) obtained by the algorithms for 5000 records

Table 5.
Execution times (s) obtained by the algorithms for 10,000 records

Table 6.
Execution times (s) obtained with a number of states of 10

Table 7.
Values of the attributes for the maximization of the consumption value

Table 8.
Model of the Markov transition matrix to be mounted

Table 9.
Initial probabilities of the Bayesian network

Table 10.
Conditional probabilities of the Bayesian network – P(Grade
Study ∩ Grade-1)

Table 11.
Markov transition matrix obtained

Table 12.
States transition matrix in the step n = 3

Table 13.
Transition matrix considering the inference made – study: medium

Table 14.
Transition matrix in the step n = 3 considering the inference made – study: medium
