Copyright © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
MCMC methods to approximate conditional predictive distributions
Received 14 January 2005;
References and further reading may be available for this article. To view references and further reading you must purchase this article.
Abstract
Sampling from conditional distributions is a problem often encountered in statistics when inferences are based on conditional distributions which are not of closed-form. Several Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to simulate from them are proposed. Potential problems are pointed out and some suitable modifications are suggested. Approximations based on conditioning sets are also explored. The issues are illustrated within a specific statistical tool for Bayesian model checking, and compared in an example. An example in frequentist conditional testing is also given.
Keywords: Bayesian model checking; Conditioning set; Conditioning statistics; Gibbs sampling; Metropolis–Hastings; Partial posterior predictive distribution
Article Outline
- 1. Introduction
- 2. A quick reminder of MCMC algorithms
- 3. Conditional predictive distributions
- 4. MCMC algorithms to approximate CP and PPP distributions
- 4.1. MCMC algorithms to simulate from the CP distribution
- 4.1.1. M–H algorithm 1
- 4.1.2. M–H algorithm 2
- 4.2. MCMC algorithms to simulate from the PPP distribution
- 4.2.1. M–H algorithm 1
- 4.2.2. M–H algorithm 2
- 4.2.3. M–H algorithm 3
- 5. CP and PPP in the normal model with T=maximum
- 5.1. Joint posterior of (μ,σ2)
- 5.2. Marginal posteriors of μ and σ2
- 5.3. Predictive distribution
- 5.4. Choice of δ
- 5.5. Marginal posterior and predictive distributions
- 5.6. Traces of the conditional posterior estimates of μ and σ2
- 5.7. Traces of the partial posterior estimates of μ and σ2
- 5.8. Summary table
- 6. An example on conditional frequentist testing
- 7. Conclusions
- Acknowledgements
- References







E-mail Article
Add to my Quick Links

Cited By in Scopus (2)






