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Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
Volume 51, Issue 2, 15 November 2006, Pages 621-640
 
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doi:10.1016/j.csda.2006.01.018    How to Cite or Link Using DOI (Opens New Window)
Copyright © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

MCMC methods to approximate conditional predictive distributions

M.J. Bayarria, E-mail The Corresponding Author, M.E. Castellanosb, Corresponding Author Contact Information, E-mail The Corresponding Author and J. Moralesc, E-mail The Corresponding Author

aDepartment of Statistics and Operations Research, University of Valencia, Valencia 46100, Spain bDepartment of Statistics and Operations Research, Rey Juan Carlos University, c/Tulipán s/n, Móstoles, Madrid 28933, Spain cOperations Research Center, Miguel Hernández University, Elche 03202, Spain

Received 14 January 2005; 
revised 30 January 2006; 
accepted 30 January 2006. 
Available online 21 February 2006.

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Abstract

Sampling from conditional distributions is a problem often encountered in statistics when inferences are based on conditional distributions which are not of closed-form. Several Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to simulate from them are proposed. Potential problems are pointed out and some suitable modifications are suggested. Approximations based on conditioning sets are also explored. The issues are illustrated within a specific statistical tool for Bayesian model checking, and compared in an example. An example in frequentist conditional testing is also given.

Keywords: Bayesian model checking; Conditioning set; Conditioning statistics; Gibbs sampling; Metropolis–Hastings; Partial posterior predictive distribution

Article Outline

1. Introduction
2. A quick reminder of MCMC algorithms
3. Conditional predictive distributions
4. MCMC algorithms to approximate CP and PPP distributions
4.1. MCMC algorithms to simulate from the CP distribution
4.1.1. M–H algorithm 1
4.1.2. M–H algorithm 2
4.2. MCMC algorithms to simulate from the PPP distribution
4.2.1. M–H algorithm 1
4.2.2. M–H algorithm 2
4.2.3. M–H algorithm 3
5. CP and PPP in the normal model with T=maximum
5.1. Joint posterior of (μ,σ2)
5.2. Marginal posteriors of μ and σ2
5.3. Predictive distribution
5.4. Choice of δ
5.5. Marginal posterior and predictive distributions
5.6. Traces of the conditional posterior estimates of μ and σ2
5.7. Traces of the partial posterior estimates of μ and σ2
5.8. Summary table
6. An example on conditional frequentist testing
7. Conclusions
Acknowledgements
References










 
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