Fig. 1. Deaths caused by probable and confirmed vCJD in the UK and France from 1995 to 2005.

Fig. 2. Beef imports from the UK in tons.

Fig. 3. Prevalence of vCJD. The vertical line shows the end of the phase of introduction of the infection by food. The curves show prevalence with the denominator of 80,000,000 German population, for the following cohorts: Curve A: Non-recipients (individuals without transfusion history, infection is therefore only possible by food). Curve B: Recipients (individuals with transfusion history), if transmission by transfusion is excluded (infection risk 0%, therefore—as in Curve A—infection possible only by food). Curve C: Recipients, if infected blood donations always lead to infection of recipients (infection risk 100%). The difference between Curve C and Curve B shows that the majority of infections was not caused by blood donations but by food. Curve D: as Curve C, but excluding donors with transfusion history. Reproduced from Fig. 2A in “How much would the exclusion of transfusion recipients from donating blood reduce the spread of vCJD?” Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol. 13 No. 1, 2007.

Fig. 4. Mortality from vCJD. The vertical line shows the end of the phase of introduction of the infection by food. The curves show incidence of deaths (Fig. 4) with the denominator of 80,000,000 German population, for the same cohorts A–D shown in Fig. 3. Reproduced from Fig. 3A in “How much would the exclusion of transfusion recipients from donating blood reduce the spread of vCJD?” Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol. 13 No. 1, 2007.

Fig. 5. Curve E: Deaths due to vCJD infections that could only be caused by food (totals of Curves A and B in Fig. 2). Curve F: Deaths due to vCJD caused by blood from infected donors (infection risk 100%) (difference between Curves C and B in Fig. 2). The vertical line marks the end of the phase of infection by food. Reproduced from Fig. 4A in “How much would the exclusion of transfusion recipients from donating blood reduce the spread of vCJD?” Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol. 13 No. 1, 2007.

Fig. 6. Curve A: Prevalence of infected donors without transfusion history (infection possible only by food). Curve B: Prevalence of infected donors with transfusion history, if transmission by transfusion could be ruled out (infection risk 0%, therefore—as in A—infection possible only by food). Curve C: Prevalence of infected donors with transfusion history, if it is assumed that infected blood donations always lead to infection (infection risk 100%). The difference between Curve C and Curve B show that the majority of infections are not caused by blood donation but by food. Curve D: As Curve C, but excluding donors with transfusion history. This curve shows 5% of the donors with transfusion history, who were not excluded according to the model assumptions. The vertical line shows the end of the phase of infection by food. Reproduced from Fig. 5A in “How much would the exclusion of transfusion recipients from donating blood reduce the spread of vCJD?” Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol. 13 No. 1, 2007.

Number of BSE cases reported

Source and information on up-to-date statistics: Office International des Epizooties, as of 9 January 2006 (www.oie.int). *Cases in imported animals.

GBR levels as defined by the SSC

Patients with vCJD worldwide and duration of stay in the UK

Polymorphism of the prion protein gene in the general population, in CJD and vCJD patients

M: methionine, V: valine.

Main reasons for deferral according to an analysis by the Institut für Transfusionsmedizin (Institute for Transfusion Medicine) Münster of the German Red Cross blood donation service West in 2004 (in % of volunteer donors)