Time and space model of urban pollution migration: Economy-energy-environment nexus network
Introduction
With reports about “cancer villages” in the Huaihe River Basin by several media outlets since 2004 (Google Map, China’s Cancer Villages), the phenomenon has drawn general attention to the frequent occurrences of tumors in the area. In accordance with the tumor death review survey published in the 1970s (Editorial Committee of Tumor Death Maps, 1979), there is a low frequency of tumor mortality upstream of Huaihe River, e.g., gastrointestinal tumors and lung cancer mortality rates are below the national average (the exception is esophageal cancer). However, reported cancer villages now total several dozen along Huaihe River based on media reports since 2004 [1]. Shayinghe River, the largest tributary of Huaihe River, flows through Shenqiu County, where small chemical enterprises and large state-owned chemical enterprises working on weaving and painting, leather, and paper production are located upstream [2], [3]. The river is also subject to increasing sewage discharge pressure. From Xiangcheng and Shenqiu to Yingshan in Anhui, there have been no less than 10 cancer villages revealed by the media, and many more evidenced by social media such as micro-blogs.1 For instance, a volunteer working on long-term environmental protection inspection and publicity discovered more than 20 cancer villages with 100 people suffering from cancer in Shenqiu [4]. Due to the fact that the Huaihe River Basin plays an important role in the economic and social development in China, and to the high incidence of cancer occurrence in this area, research is needed to understand and alleviate this phenomenon.
Published research points out that water pollution is closely related to the high incidence of cancer [5]. The distribution of cancer villages is in close relation to the rivers: nearly 60% of cancer villages are found within 3 km of the rivers, and nearly 81% of cancer villages are located within 5 km of the rivers [6]. Such finding suggests that the rivers are an important factor affecting cancer distribution. In addition, the “Atlas of water environment and gastrointestinal tumor mortality in the Huaihe River Basin”, part of the achievement of the “Correlation assessment study of water pollution and tumor” by the “Eleventh Five-year Plan” National Science and Technology Support Project, was officially published in June, 2013. The atlas, for the first time, confirmed a direct relationship between water pollution and a high incidence of cancer. Regretfully, the existing research lacks an exploration of the relationship of environmental impact between the cities within the river area and adjacent counties, as well as whether cities exert environmental influence on adjacent counties (including on human health). Therefore, this study was conducted for the following purposes: (1) to analyze the influence between cancer villages and the adjacent cities, as well as the strength of influence, (2) to establish a gravity model of the relationship concerning regional characteristic factors (distance, population, economy, and pollution degree) between cancer villages and the adjacent cities; (3) to analyze the relationship between cancer villages and the adjacent rivers and to determine if the high incidence of cancer has a higher correlation with river pollution; (4) to conduct a network analysis of cancer villages in the Huaihe River Basin and large- and medium-sized cities, as well as to determine if there is an indirect link between cancer villages and the adjacent cities; and (5) to provide a reference and policy guidance for research on the formation of cancer villages and cities’ pollution impact on cancer villages in the river area.
Section snippets
Relationship between urban pollution and the regional environment
Research on urbanization and urban ecological environments began in China in the 1970s and has continued with a rapid progress [7]. The main focus involves urban environmental effects caused by urbanization, the coordinated urban development of society, economy, and environment, sustainable city development, ecological city, and healthy city development, among others [8].
Water resources and water environmental problems brought about by urbanization include absolute scarcity of water, relative
Description of the system
Located in the eastern part of China, the Huaihe River Basin lies between the Yellow River and the Yangtze River (111°55′E to 111°45′E, 30°55′N to 36°20′N). The Huaihe River Basin covers five provinces (Hubei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shandong), 35 cities, and 189 counties. The total population is about 165 million, with an average population density of 611 people/km2, i.e., 4.8-fold higher than the national average population density, thus ranking first in population density among river basins
Gravity model methods to assess economic and pollution flows between cancer villages and adjacent cities
Cancer villages are products of a certain historical stage of economic and social development, closely related to regional economic development. In addition, a high incidence of cancer has been confirmed to have a close tie to environmental pollution. Therefore, the flows between cancer villages and adjacent cities that we focused on are mainly economic and pollution relationships.
Economic relations are one of the manifestations of spatial interaction between cities. In theory, the interaction
The economic relationship between cancer villages and adjacent cities
From pollution data, economic data, and the above calculation procedures, we obtained the economic relationships between 12 high-risk areas of cancer along the Huaihe River, the economic relationships between high-risk areas of cancer and large- and medium-sized cities near the Huaihe River, and the year 2010 matrix of the economic relationship Rij (see Table 1A in Appendix). Although the number of cancer villages in the Huaihe River Basin is 14, only 12 will be discussed when analyzing the
Conclusions
Because of China’s large population size, these Chinese data contribute significantly to the global burden of cancer [33]. Untangling the causal web linking urbanisation and human health needs a multidisciplinary approach, and metrics that capture the multidimensional process of urban-to-urban transformation show promise in the assessment of longitudinal changes in urbanicity and the subsequent health effects. The appearance of a cancer village is the result of the spatial-temporal distribution
Acknowledgments
This work is supported by the Fund for Innovative Research Group of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51421065), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41471466), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities. Sergio Ulgiati also acknowledges the contract by the School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, within the framework of the National “One Thousand Foreign Experts Plan”.
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