RESEARCH ARTICLE
Simulating emerging coastal tourism vulnerabilities: an agent-based modelling approach

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2020.103034Get rights and content
Under a Creative Commons license
open access

Highlights

  • Integrates heterogeneous human-environmental systems in an agent-based model

  • Investigates influence of environmental change on the coastal destination Curaçao

  • Identifies factors leading to undesirable scenarios as well as environmental action

  • Innovative analysis tools can inform decision-making on emerging vulnerabilities

  • Model design enables use for additional destinations and environmental challenges

Abstract

Coastal tourism destinations face a range of climate-related changes. Prevailing challenges include understanding emerging changes and future uncertainties. A dynamic vulnerability approach is a promising way to analyse emerging socio-ecological vulnerabilities. This research presents an innovative coupling of the human-environment system in the agent-based model Coasting, and is applied to Curaçao's coastal tourism. We observe how operator numbers and environmental attractiveness, proxies for socio-ecological vulnerabilities, change over time. Global sensitivity analysis highlights the main interacting factors behind socio-ecological vulnerabilities. Scenario discovery explores the main drivers contributing to undesirable vulnerabilities. The model's findings provide key insights on which factors tourism destinations need to focus on to prevent socio-ecological vulnerabilities.

Keywords

Agent-based modelling (ABM)
Dynamic vulnerability approach
Scenario discovery
Coastal tourism
Environmental change
Curaçao

Cited by (0)

Jillian Student is a postdoctoral researcher. Jillian's research pursuits include human-environmental dynamics, interactive (companion) modelling, tourism, environmental change, and participatory research.

Mark R. Kramer's research focuses on simulation development and software engineering, especially programming methodology and programming languages.

Patrick Steinmann works on quantifying the resilience of socio-environmental systems under deep uncertainty and developing methods for long-term decision-making and analysis.