ReviewFood and water security: Analysis of integrated modeling platforms
Introduction
Globally, both food and water resources are under significant pressure to meet the needs of a growing population. Millions of people worldwide face considerable threats to their food and water security, and the impacts of these issues will only be intensified with future effects of global climate change and changes to land-use. It has thus become apparent in recent years that the connections between food and water supply must be explored in order to work toward a state of global food and water security.
Water supply and availability directly affect food production through agricultural practices. Sufficient water supply is vital to ensure crop growth and livestock survival, and agriculture accounts for approximately 70% of global freshwater use (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2014). Conversely, improper management practices in the agricultural sector can result in runoff and contamination by excess nutrients or chemicals entering into the water supply. As a consequence, neither food or water security can realistically be achieved on a global scale without the other. It is therefore important to consider food and water security from an interdisciplinary perspective in the pursuit of global security. In order to work toward global food and water security, it is first necessary to have an understanding of how global food and water systems operate, how they are affected by various drivers, and how they will be expected to change in the future. Modeling platforms allow researchers to simulate and understand current systems, identify key drivers and their potential impact, and make specific parameter alterations to predict future scenarios. They also provide the basis for critical thought necessary to design and simulate solutions for system improvement.
Previous research has led to the development of a number of modeling platforms to jointly analyze food and water security (Alcamo et al., 2001, Amarasinghe, 2005, Blanco et al., 2012, Bondeau et al., 2007, de Fraiture, 2007, Grafton et al., 2015, Liu et al., 2007, Rosegrant et al., 2008, Siebert and Döll, 2008, Wei et al., 2009). These models have been developed for a variety of circumstances and conditions, and have vast differences in their operation and overall purpose. This review and analysis is intended to provide a basis for research studies concerned with the application or adaptation of interdisciplinary food and water security models. A fundamental understanding of the depth of potential modeling platforms, and their various capabilities and uses, is required prior to selecting the appropriate tool for a particular application. This manuscript attempts to identify key drivers of food and water security models, and offers a basis for comparison of several of the models according to these key drivers, input requirements, model limitations and advantages.
This manuscript initially discusses the fundamental concepts of food and water security to provide the broader context and requisite background on these topics. In doing so, the manuscript summarizes current hydrological and food production and consumption modeling structures that have been applied independently for either water or food security analyses. This information serves as a foundation for research and provides insight into more detailed and complex interdisciplinary models. The paper then focuses on ten food and water security models to critically review and analyze their application, processes, input data and information, advantages and limitations. Results from this analysis will provide guidance for model selection and development to improve understanding of the interdisciplinary nature of food and water security.
Section snippets
Overview of water security
Globally, fresh water may be our most precious resource; however, threats to global water security continue to impact the health of our fresh water resources. The global water cycle is being significantly altered by land development and the resulting effects to runoff, evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge processes. In urban and other developing areas, population growth decreases the availability of fresh water while urbanization decreases recharge to groundwater and increases stormwater
Overview of food security
Food insecurity represents one of the most significant challenges for the global population. Each year, more people die from malnutrition than from AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria combined (World Food Programme, 2016). Food insecurity can also lead to civil unrest and violence, justifying the need for government assistance and investment in agriculture in order to reduce conflict and build social capital (Notaras, 2011). Population growth, urbanization, and climate change are just a few of the
Food and water security models
The interdependence between water and food security emphasizes the importance of studying these variables in an inter-connected manner. Recently, there have been substantial advances in the creation of modeling frameworks that address food and water collectively. A comprehensive review of the literature reveals ten existing models that jointly analyze food and water security, in order to characterize and evaluate the interactions between the two concepts. A brief review of the primary focus of
Discussion
The ten food and water security models reviewed in the past section were all created under different circumstances in order to serve a variety of purposes. While some of the platforms are suitable for global analyses of food and water security, others require more detailed input data and have been validated at regional or river basin scaled analyses (see Table 1). Several models place more focus on either food or water security indicators in terms of their model output.
Before using one of these
Concluding remarks
As global food and water security persist and intensify, the study of their connection and relationship to one another is becoming increasingly imperative. There remains considerable uncertainty with regard to the ability of predictive tools to assess the state of future global food and water situations. Modeling platforms to jointly analyze food and water systems exist; however, further developments and adaptations are still required in order to improve modeling capabilities and provide
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