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doi:10.1016/S0951-8320(99)00046-0    
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Copyright © 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Monte Carlo methodological approach to plant availability modeling with maintenance, aging and obsolescence

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E. Borgonovo, M. MarseguerraCorresponding Author Contact Information, E-mail The Corresponding Author and E. Zio

Dipartimento di Ingegneria Nucleare, Politecnico di Milano, Via Ponzio 34/3, 20133 Milan, Italy


Received 14 March 1999;
accepted 23 June 1999.
Available online 2 December 1999.

Abstract

In this paper we present a Monte Carlo approach for the evaluation of plant maintenance strategies and operating procedures under economic constraints. The proposed Monte Carlo simulation model provides a flexible tool which enables one to describe many of the relevant aspects for plant management and operation such as aging, repair, obsolescence, renovation, which are not easily captured by analytical models. The maintenance periods are varied with the age of the components. Aging is described by means of a modified Brown–Proschan model of imperfect (deteriorating) repair which accounts for the increased proneness to failure of a component after it has been repaired. A model of obsolescence is introduced to evaluate the convenience of substituting a failed component with a new, improved one. The economic constraint is formalized in terms of an energy, or cost, function; optimization studies are then performed using the maintenance period as the control parameter.

Author Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation; Periodic maintenance; Aging; Obsolescence; Availability; Energy function; Optimization

Article Outline

1. Introduction
2. A quantitative model for plant availability and economic management
2.1. Failure and repair with aging
2.2. Maintenance
2.3. The profit function
2.4. Obsolescence
3. The reference system
4. Maintenance optimization
5. Conclusions
References













Corresponding Author Contact Information Corresponding author. Fax: +39-2-2399-6309; email: marzio.marseguerra@polimi.it


 
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