doi:10.1016/S0951-8320(99)00046-0
Copyright © 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
A Monte Carlo methodological approach to plant availability modeling with maintenance, aging and obsolescence
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E. Borgonovo, M. Marseguerra
,
and E. Zio
Dipartimento di Ingegneria Nucleare, Politecnico di Milano, Via Ponzio 34/3, 20133 Milan, Italy
Received 14 March 1999;
accepted 23 June 1999.
Available online 2 December 1999.
Abstract
In this paper we present a Monte Carlo approach for the evaluation of plant maintenance strategies and operating procedures under economic constraints. The proposed Monte Carlo simulation model provides a flexible tool which enables one to describe many of the relevant aspects for plant management and operation such as aging, repair, obsolescence, renovation, which are not easily captured by analytical models. The maintenance periods are varied with the age of the components. Aging is described by means of a modified Brown–Proschan model of imperfect (deteriorating) repair which accounts for the increased proneness to failure of a component after it has been repaired. A model of obsolescence is introduced to evaluate the convenience of substituting a failed component with a new, improved one. The economic constraint is formalized in terms of an energy, or cost, function; optimization studies are then performed using the maintenance period as the control parameter.
Author Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation; Periodic maintenance; Aging; Obsolescence; Availability; Energy function; Optimization
Fig. 1. Typical behavior of component failure rate.
Fig. 2. (a) Cumulative distributions: weibull (α=1.1, β=0.021) vs exponential (λ=0.0206). (b) Probability density functions: weibull (α=1.1, β=0.021) vs exponential (λ=0.0206).
Fig. 3. (a) Cumulative distributions: weibull (α=2, β=0.021) vs exponential (λ=0.0176). (b) Probability density functions: weibull (α=2, β=0.021) vs exponential (λ=0.0176).
Fig. 4. Linear growth of failure rate within the maintenance period τ and counterbalancing effect of maintenance.
Fig. 5. Adaptive maintenance period for an aging component. After component failure and repair (with time Trep) the component ages according to the Brown–Proshan model and the maintenance period is shortened from τ to τ′.
Fig. 6. System unavailability. ○, analytic with no aging; +, Monte Carlo with no aging; *, Monte Carlo with aging (p=0.8, π=0.3, τ=20 h).
Fig. 7. System cost: (a) maintenance; (b) downtime; (c) repair; (d) total.
Fig. 8. (a) Instantaneous and (b) integral behavior of the costs as a function of time, in case of Brown–Proshan aging after repair (p=0.8, π=0.3, τ=20 h).
Fig. 9. System costs as a function of the maintenance period τ: (a) maintenance; (b) downtime; (c) repair; (d) total.
Fig. 10. System costs as a function of the maintenance period τ in presence of aging (p=0.8; π=0.3).
Fig. 11. System cumulative benefits and total costs as a function of time: (a) non-optimized τ=20 h; (b) optimized τ*=5.6 h.
Fig. 12. System unavailability as a function of time, under no aging/no obsolescence (*); aging/no obsolescence (+); aging /obsolescence (○).
Fig. 13. Total cumulative costs for the system, with and without obsolescence. (a) CN1, $5; (b) CN1, $100.
Table 1. Transition rates

Table 2. Input data for the cost evaluation of the reference system

Table 3. Data for the obsolescence process

Corresponding author. Fax: +39-2-2399-6309; email: marzio.marseguerra@polimi.it