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Journal of Macroeconomics
Volume 23, Issue 1, Winter 2001, Pages 73-97
 
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doi:10.1016/S0164-0704(01)00155-0    How to Cite or Link Using DOI (Opens New Window)
Copyright © 2001 Published by Elsevier Inc.

Can the volatility of the federal funds rate explain the time-varying risk premium in treasury bill returns?*

John Elder

North Dakota State University Fargo, North Dakota, USA

Received 1 April 1999; 
revised 1 March 2000. 
Available online 6 September 2002.

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The implementation of monetary policy through financial markets is widely believed to be an important factor affecting the return on financial assets, particularly the return on short-term government debt. This paper assesses the effects of shocks to monetary policy on Treasury bill returns by fitting a factor-ARCH model with a candidate factor based on innovations in the federal funds rate. We find that positive policy shocks significantly reduce Treasury bill returns and significantly increase the volatility of Treasury bill returns, but that the volatility of policy shocks does not explain the time-varying risk premia in Treasury bill returns.


 
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