World Report

Cyclone Idai: 1 month later, devastation persists

In many parts of the world, human losses to disasters have been on the increase during the past three decades. This has slowed down the human development process. In an attempt to curb disaster impact, the world adopted an action-oriented Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) in 2015. Target A of the SFDRR seeks to substantially reduce disaster mortalities by 2030. This study contributes to the SFDRR by bringing in disaster-disaggregated mortality data to assess the progress of Zimbabwe’s commitment in attaining Target A. The data came from the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency, the Traffic Safety Council of Zimbabwe, the Department of Civil Protection and the EM-DAT database. To analyse the data, we conducted 3-year and 5-year moving averages for a period of thirty years to frame a holistic picture of the disaster mortalities in Zimbabwe. We also applied the methodology developed by the Open-Ended Intergovernmental Expert Working Group to determine the mortality rates for the overall and individual disaster type. Results clearly showed that Zimbabwe is making progress in reducing disaster mortalities despite a few spikes across its range of disasters. Major deaths were caused by drought, diarrhoea, malaria and tropical cyclones. Therefore, Zimbabwe needs to invest in drought monitoring and mitigation, cyclone forecasting and early warnings, and the surveillance and prevention of diarrhoeal diseases and malaria in order to substantially reduce the disaster mortality by the year 2030.

Shocks linked to climate disasters are increasingly understood as intertwined with inequities, devastating livelihoods, exacerbating food insecurities and impacting migration economies. Yet there is often a lack of sustained and situated attention to how these – and diverse secondary and tertiary shocks – are experienced in relation to gender and class inequalities, other social differences and underlying forces shaping differentiated mobility-related challenges over time. Divergent experiences and histories of shocks are often simplified, with (im)mobility-related struggles misunderstood or only abstractly represented. Amid these concerns, this article explores the ‘mobilities turn’ in climate disaster research, focusing on experiences articulated by people along the Zimbabwe-Mozambique border, examining multiple impacts of climate disasters and changing dynamics of (im)mobility converging with pandemic shocks and interrelated political and socio-economic struggles. In this region, impacted by one of the world’s most severe tropical cyclones in recent memory, we explore the embeddedness of shocks in dynamic political-economic landscapes and life trajectories. Part of a multi-method 5-year project, we focus on stories where articulations around mobilities, translocal connections and mobility disruptions, including from COVID-19, call for carefully understanding socio-economic ties and histories, land alienation and access inequities, mutating meanings of borders, and factors intensifying economic insecurities amid increasingly severe and frequent climate shocks.

Floods are causing massive losses of crops and agricultural infrastructures in many regions across the globe. During the 2018/2019 agricultural year, heavy rains from Cyclone Idai caused flooding in Central Mozambique and had the greatest impact on Sofala Province. The main objectives of this study are to map the flooding durations, evaluate how long crops survived the floods, and analyse the dynamics of the affected crops and their recovery following various flooding durations using multi-source satellite data. Our results indicate that Otsu method-based flooding mapping provides reliable flood extents and durations with an overall accuracy higher than 90%, which facilitates the assessment of how long crops can survive floods and their recovery progress. Croplands in both Buzi and Tica administrative units were the most severely impacted among all the regions in Sofala Province, with the largest flooded cropland extent at 23,101.1 ha in Buzi on 20 March 2019 and the most prolonged flooding duration of more than 42 days in Tica and Mafambisse. Major summer crops, including maize and rice, could survive when the fields were inundated for up to 12 days, while all crops died when the flooding duration was longer than 24 days. The recovery of surviving crops to pre-flooding status took a much longer time, from approximately 20 days to as long as one month after flooding. The findings presented herein can assist decision making in developing countries or remote regions for flood monitoring, mitigation and damage assessment.

The increasing frequency and severity of extreme climatic events and their impacts are being realized in many regions of the world, particularly in smallholder crop and livestock production systems in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). These events underscore the need for timely early warning. Satellite Earth Observation (EO) availability, rapid developments in methodology to archive and process them through cloud services and advanced computational capabilities, continue to generate new opportunities for providing accurate, reliable, and timely information for decision-makers across multiple cropping systems and for resource-constrained institutions. Today, systems and tools that leverage these developments to provide open access actionable early warning information exist. Some have already been employed by early adopters and are currently operational in selecting national monitoring programs in Angola, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. Despite these capabilities, many governments in SSA still rely on traditional crop monitoring systems, which mainly rely on sparse and long latency in situ reports with little to no integration of EO-derived crop conditions and yield models. This study reviews open-access operational agricultural monitoring systems available for Africa. These systems provide the best-available open-access EO data that countries can readily take advantage of, adapt, adopt, and leverage to augment national systems and make significant leaps (timeliness, spatial coverage and accuracy) of their monitoring programs. Data accessible (vegetation indices, crop masks) in these systems are described showing typical outputs. Examples are provided including crop conditions maps, and damage assessments and how these have integrated into reporting and decision-making. The discussion compares and contrasts the types of data, assessments and products can expect from using these systems. This paper is intended for individuals and organizations seeking to access and use EO to assess crop conditions who might not have the technical skill or computing facilities to process raw data into informational products.

The African coastline is bordered by highly valuable marine ecosystems, but the environmental degradation due to anthropogenic pressure alter the benefits that they render to people. Our paper aims at assessing the value of ecosystem services provided by mangroves, seagrass beds, coral reefs, and kelp forests present in the Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) of Africa. After the mapping of coastal marine habitats, our valuation relies on the transfer of value of all ecosystem services from reference monetary unit values, extracted from the literature. A habitat functionality index based on the assumption that a higher population density and a higher demographic growth rate lead to a decrease in the functionality and services of marine habitats was then defined and incorporated into the valuation. The surveyed coastal habitats cover about 117,000 km², with seagrass beds being by far the most extensive habitat. Present all along the coasts of Africa, their surface area represents about 62% of surveyed coastal habitats, followed by the mangroves (23%), coral reefs (15%). Kelp forests are only present in the southern Benguela Current LME. We estimated the annual value of the LME's coastal ecosystem services at 814 billion USD. Coral reefs have the highest value (588 billion USD/year), followed by seagrass beds (135 billion USD/year), mangroves (91 billion USD/year), and kelp forests (0.4 billion USD/year). The results show that ecosystem services from the four coastal habitat types had the highest value in the Agulhas Current LME, representing 38% of the total value, followed by the Red Sea LME (28%) and the Somali Coastal Current LME (10%). The three LMEs of the Atlantic side represent 15% of the total estimated value. Our paper highlighted many gaps that remain to be filled in terms of mapping and ecosystem services assessment in Africa. Nonetheless, our estimated values can facilitate dialogue between decision-makers and managers, and between countries sharing the same habitats and marine resources, toward better management of these ecosystems.