Preface
Probabilistic and ensemble forecasting

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    In few studies, the approaches based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method have also been applied successfully (Ajami et al., 2007). A few studies have addressed the uncertainty issue through ensemble modeling (Georgakakos and Krzysztofowicz, 2001; Viney et al., 2009; Schellekens et al., 2011), and ensemble systems have been used to account for uncertainty in input data, model parameter and model structure individually or combined uncertainty due to these (Gourley and Vieux, 2005, 2006). However, in order to provide full range of uncertainty, ensemble must include variety of ensemble members (Cloke and Pappenberger, 2009).

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